4 ms·

It's a lot like predicting earthquakes right? You can measure strain and know that you're due, but you still don't know precisely what the trigger will be or wh

It's a lot like predicting earthquakes right? You can measure strain and know that you're due, but you still don't know precisely what the trigger will be or when it will happen. We don't make such jokes about seismologists though. Why not?

injidup 5y ago
I had to break up with my Seismologist girlfriend. She kept pointing out all my faults.
- in_mice 5y ago
  That's a good one.
TeMPOraL 5y ago
But we do make such jokes about meteorologists. I suppose it's the matter of media exposure: unlike economists and meteorologists, seismologists aren't constantly on TV telling us bad times are coming soon.
- jbay808 5y ago
  If the meteorologist says it will rain on Saturday and be sunny on Sunday, and in fact they happen in the opposite order, my weekend plans are ruined. But the seismologist is just saying, "I don't know exactly when but it reeaaally looks like we're going to get a big earthquake someday soon better make sure your building is up to code and you have your emergency supplies ready". And we nod, and check our emergency supplies and upgrade our infrastructure, and when five more years go by without an earthquake, and the seismologist is saying the same thing, nobody says "silly seismologist, predicting twelve of the last three earthquakes!" But when an economist says a crash might be coming soon, and you'd better make sure you have emergency savings set aside, people do make those jokes. What's different about these scenarios?
  - mrtnmcc 5y ago
    Maybe one difference is with the economy there is a lot more obvious benefit to be had for almost any person to expect (pretend?) there won't be a crash. For earthquakes, challenging the seismologists only benefits the niche group of real estate developers. While the cost of worrying about earthquakes is relatively little ostensibly. I'd heard some argument that humans inherent tolerance for risk is much lower than it rationally should be today because it was evolved in an environment where we were much more likely to get killed. I think human discourse is constantly grappling with that biased instinct.
SantalBlush 5y ago
It's more like predicting Y2K. There was no countrywide carastrophe from Y2K, therefore the computer scientsists and engineers who predicted it were wrong. And by extension, computer science and engineering are bogus. Right?
spywaregorilla 5y ago
Seismologists don't try to imply that there's "news" every 6 hours worth reading.
robotresearcher 5y ago
We are accustomed to their predictions being shaky.
- in_mice 5y ago
  bwa ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha <breathe> bwa ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

injidup 5y ago

I had to break up with my Seismologist girlfriend. She kept pointing out all my faults.

in_mice 5y ago
That's a good one.

TeMPOraL 5y ago

But we do make such jokes about meteorologists. I suppose it's the matter of media exposure: unlike economists and meteorologists, seismologists aren't constantly on TV telling us bad times are coming soon.

jbay808 5y ago
If the meteorologist says it will rain on Saturday and be sunny on Sunday, and in fact they happen in the opposite order, my weekend plans are ruined. But the seismologist is just saying, "I don't know exactly when but it reeaaally looks like we're going to get a big earthquake someday soon better make sure your building is up to code and you have your emergency supplies ready". And we nod, and check our emergency supplies and upgrade our infrastructure, and when five more years go by without an earthquake, and the seismologist is saying the same thing, nobody says "silly seismologist, predicting twelve of the last three earthquakes!" But when an economist says a crash might be coming soon, and you'd better make sure you have emergency savings set aside, people do make those jokes. What's different about these scenarios?
- mrtnmcc 5y ago
  Maybe one difference is with the economy there is a lot more obvious benefit to be had for almost any person to expect (pretend?) there won't be a crash. For earthquakes, challenging the seismologists only benefits the niche group of real estate developers. While the cost of worrying about earthquakes is relatively little ostensibly. I'd heard some argument that humans inherent tolerance for risk is much lower than it rationally should be today because it was evolved in an environment where we were much more likely to get killed. I think human discourse is constantly grappling with that biased instinct.

SantalBlush 5y ago

It's more like predicting Y2K. There was no countrywide carastrophe from Y2K, therefore the computer scientsists and engineers who predicted it were wrong. And by extension, computer science and engineering are bogus. Right?

spywaregorilla 5y ago

Seismologists don't try to imply that there's "news" every 6 hours worth reading.

robotresearcher 5y ago

We are accustomed to their predictions being shaky.

in_mice 5y ago
bwa ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha <breathe> bwa ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha