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The mood on Hacker News (and reddit/twitter) has become too pessimistic to be a good predictor of the future. The long-term trend is that the world is becoming

The mood on Hacker News (and reddit/twitter) has become too pessimistic to be a good predictor of the future. The long-term trend is that the world is becoming a better place. Pessimistic people are biased against that fundamental trend that other trends will develop on. Groups of pessimistic people will not be good predictors of the future.

Toine 5y ago
Define "better place" ?
- marcusverus 5y ago
  Fewer people in extreme poverty. Hunger is falling. Child labor is on the decline. People in developed countries are working less. The share of income spent on food is down (in the US). Life expectancy is rising. Child mortality is down. Death in childhood is down. Guinea worm has almost been eradicated. Teen births are down (in the US). Smoking is down (in the US). Violent crime is down. Nuclear weapon stockpiles are down. More people are living in democracies. Literacy is up. Internet access is increasing. Solar energy is getting cheaper. Source: https://www.vox.com/2014/11/24/7272929/global-poverty-health-crime-literacy-good-news https://www.vox.com/2014/11/24/7272929/global-poverty-health...
  - consumer451 5y ago
    It's unfortunate that spreading such news is not as profitable as fearmongering. It is only recently that I have begun to suspect that there are strong political reasons for suppressing this as well. Feeling pretty naive about that.
long_time_gone 5y ago
Oddly, this strikes me as one of the most pessimistic posts I’ve seen on HN. - What is your definition of “long-term”? - Can a certain industry or geography get worse while the broader world becomes a “better place”? - Aren’t optimists just lying to themselves in the opposite way as pessimists? - Is any group of a single type a good predictor of anything? - Is everyone on HN exactly the same with the exact same outlook?

Toine 5y ago

Define "better place" ?

marcusverus 5y ago
Fewer people in extreme poverty. Hunger is falling. Child labor is on the decline. People in developed countries are working less. The share of income spent on food is down (in the US). Life expectancy is rising. Child mortality is down. Death in childhood is down. Guinea worm has almost been eradicated. Teen births are down (in the US). Smoking is down (in the US). Violent crime is down. Nuclear weapon stockpiles are down. More people are living in democracies. Literacy is up. Internet access is increasing. Solar energy is getting cheaper. Source: https://www.vox.com/2014/11/24/7272929/global-poverty-health-crime-literacy-good-news https://www.vox.com/2014/11/24/7272929/global-poverty-health...
- consumer451 5y ago
  It's unfortunate that spreading such news is not as profitable as fearmongering. It is only recently that I have begun to suspect that there are strong political reasons for suppressing this as well. Feeling pretty naive about that.

long_time_gone 5y ago

Oddly, this strikes me as one of the most pessimistic posts I’ve seen on HN. - What is your definition of “long-term”? - Can a certain industry or geography get worse while the broader world becomes a “better place”? - Aren’t optimists just lying to themselves in the opposite way as pessimists? - Is any group of a single type a good predictor of anything? - Is everyone on HN exactly the same with the exact same outlook?