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Every prediction I see is: a crash is coming but we know with 100% certainty that no one can predict when. It might be tomorrow or 3 years from now. Framed tha

by smt88 5y ago

Every prediction I see is: a crash is coming but we know with 100% certainty that no one can predict when. It might be tomorrow or 3 years from now. Framed that way, it's less a prediction than a statement of the cyclical nature of economies, but it can still grab headlines!

akoncius 5y ago
better formula would be “in next 20 years we will have economic downturn” :D
dragontamer 5y ago
Nah, I think you haven't been following the permabears. A lot of them talk about crap like the price of gold, the use of BTC as a hedge, PE ratios, "technicals", candlesticks, simple moving averages, charts, commodity prices, QE, negative bond rates, near-zero interest rates and the like. Some get political even, talking about presidents or policies they don't like and why they'll cause a crash. Its pretty easy to weave a story around ill-defined feelings, because none of these things determine the market trajectory. You can be 100% correct in your facts and/or analysis of the present but still make terrible predictions of the future. The permabears always have a good story. They're really good at making stories for why the crash is going to really happen this year.
- legulere 5y ago
  They might not be wrong though. Irrationally high valuations are signs for a bubble, but do not help predict when the bubble will burst.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
id 5y ago
There was a crash last year. The only reason it's not really acknowledged as such is that the recovery was unusually quick. Crashes don't have to be big and the recovery doesn't have to take years or even decades.
- lobocinza 5y ago
  Timing is the >one billion question. Markets aren't predictable because they are dynamic so any measurement and analysis affects the behavior of it's agents.
- paulryanrogers 5y ago
  Recovery could also prove to be further papering over serious problems. Time will tell how robust a recovery it truly is.
  - steve_adams_86 5y ago
    This scares me. Here in Canada, the government scrambled to put "printed" cash into motion, and inflation is already having real impacts... Particularly on poor people. I worry we're only seeing the tip of the iceberg, so to speak. The same thing happened in the USA, but I suspect our economy here is less resilient to fluctuations.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > The only reason it's not really acknowledged as such Wait, there are significant sources that don't acknowledge the existence of a deep and sharp pandemic related downturn?

by smt88 5y ago

akoncius 5y ago

better formula would be “in next 20 years we will have economic downturn” :D

dragontamer 5y ago

Nah, I think you haven't been following the permabears. A lot of them talk about crap like the price of gold, the use of BTC as a hedge, PE ratios, "technicals", candlesticks, simple moving averages, charts, commodity prices, QE, negative bond rates, near-zero interest rates and the like. Some get political even, talking about presidents or policies they don't like and why they'll cause a crash. Its pretty easy to weave a story around ill-defined feelings, because none of these things determine the market trajectory. You can be 100% correct in your facts and/or analysis of the present but still make terrible predictions of the future. The permabears always have a good story. They're really good at making stories for why the crash is going to really happen this year.

legulere 5y ago
They might not be wrong though. Irrationally high valuations are signs for a bubble, but do not help predict when the bubble will burst.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]

id 5y ago

There was a crash last year. The only reason it's not really acknowledged as such is that the recovery was unusually quick. Crashes don't have to be big and the recovery doesn't have to take years or even decades.

lobocinza 5y ago
Timing is the >one billion question. Markets aren't predictable because they are dynamic so any measurement and analysis affects the behavior of it's agents.
paulryanrogers 5y ago
Recovery could also prove to be further papering over serious problems. Time will tell how robust a recovery it truly is.
- steve_adams_86 5y ago
  This scares me. Here in Canada, the government scrambled to put "printed" cash into motion, and inflation is already having real impacts... Particularly on poor people. I worry we're only seeing the tip of the iceberg, so to speak. The same thing happened in the USA, but I suspect our economy here is less resilient to fluctuations.
dragonwriter 5y ago
> The only reason it's not really acknowledged as such Wait, there are significant sources that don't acknowledge the existence of a deep and sharp pandemic related downturn?