I have track record of making predictions on Metaculus.com . And yeah, the new variants were a suprise. We were expecting sars-cov-2 to evolve slower than influ

I have track record of making predictions on Metaculus.com . And yeah, the new variants were a suprise. We were expecting sars-cov-2 to evolve slower than influenza. I think this will still hold. But from my experience with generic algorithms I also knew that evolution happens the quickest after some breakthrough, when the new solution is not yet optimal. The issue is that we don't know what optimum looks like for this virus. Besides that experts were also telling us that immunity from vaccine will likely fade.