4 ms·

> True, though usually viruses mutate into less virulent forms. Citation needed. The delta variant is the prime counter-example with higher R0 and slightly hig

> True, though usually viruses mutate into less virulent forms. Citation needed. The delta variant is the prime counter-example with higher R0 and slightly higher mortality. SAGE admitted SARS-CoV-2 will very likely mutate to defeat all build-up immunity. Variants of SARS-CoV-2 (SARS and MERS) showed the potential to have very high infection fatality ratios. There is no reason at all to suspect COVID will suddenly become mild.

paulddraper 5y ago
> higher R0 Contagiousness can certainly increase. Virulency does not usually increase. Severe flu seasons are characterized by increased infections, not so much increased fatality rate. > Citation needed. "Most viruses become less deadly as they mutate." https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2021/02/27/is-sars-cov-2-evolving-to-become-more-lethal https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2021/02/27/... (The article is about how COVID might buck the general trend. But in any case, that is the trend.)
- edejong 5y ago
  Ok, instead of some handwaving from economist, I'd rather have Nature [1] with loads of good references and no paywall. My point is that we simply do not know. The word 'usual' is deceptive here. Usual for the viruses we studied? Usual for all viruses? Usual for viruses which recently have made the jump to a new species? We do not know. We simply have no idea. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41576-018-0055-5 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41576-018-0055-5
  - nintendo1889 5y ago
    Nature paywall is on scihub. Just copy the doi.org url.
  - paulddraper 5y ago
    > usual > no idea
    - edejong 5y ago
      No virologist or epidemiologist will say it is 'usual' that viruses tend to mutate to become less virulent. Perhaps, and even that is contentious, an expert could make a claim for a specific type of virus. This type of reasoning is based on an assumption that a pathogen limits its reproductive number by increasing its virulence. It is reasonable to test this hypothesis, but unfortunately we do not have enough data points to make any conclusive statements.
systemvoltage 5y ago
Lots of misinformation in the parent comment as well as yours. I’m not going to correct it - I think discussion on HN has been on a large spectrum - interesting policy discussions, technical debates to insane upvoted misinformation and scaremongering. We need to pay attention to virologists, not HN armchair experts.
- GaryTang 5y ago
  virologists sponsored by which party?

paulddraper 5y ago

> higher R0 Contagiousness can certainly increase. Virulency does not usually increase. Severe flu seasons are characterized by increased infections, not so much increased fatality rate. > Citation needed. "Most viruses become less deadly as they mutate." https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2021/02/27/is-sars-cov-2-evolving-to-become-more-lethal https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2021/02/27/... (The article is about how COVID might buck the general trend. But in any case, that is the trend.)

edejong 5y ago
Ok, instead of some handwaving from economist, I'd rather have Nature [1] with loads of good references and no paywall. My point is that we simply do not know. The word 'usual' is deceptive here. Usual for the viruses we studied? Usual for all viruses? Usual for viruses which recently have made the jump to a new species? We do not know. We simply have no idea. [1] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41576-018-0055-5 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41576-018-0055-5
- nintendo1889 5y ago
  Nature paywall is on scihub. Just copy the doi.org url.
- paulddraper 5y ago
  > usual > no idea
  - edejong 5y ago
    No virologist or epidemiologist will say it is 'usual' that viruses tend to mutate to become less virulent. Perhaps, and even that is contentious, an expert could make a claim for a specific type of virus. This type of reasoning is based on an assumption that a pathogen limits its reproductive number by increasing its virulence. It is reasonable to test this hypothesis, but unfortunately we do not have enough data points to make any conclusive statements.

systemvoltage 5y ago

Lots of misinformation in the parent comment as well as yours. I’m not going to correct it - I think discussion on HN has been on a large spectrum - interesting policy discussions, technical debates to insane upvoted misinformation and scaremongering. We need to pay attention to virologists, not HN armchair experts.

GaryTang 5y ago
virologists sponsored by which party?