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How long would a full lockdown take? (a real one, not a mockdown) The experience in Wuhan shows that 76 days would be enough to eradicate the virus from a mass
by dongping 5y ago
How long would a full lockdown take? (a real one, not a mockdown)
The experience in Wuhan shows that 76 days would be enough to eradicate the virus from a massive outbreak. So the loss would be way less than 20% of the GDP (since essential economic activities would still be going on [1], and there would be people being able to work from home. Government could still use financial instrument/regulation to alleviate the damage).
I don't think the the US would be able to do such a large project, but I had thought that the European bureaucratic system was organized enough. I was apparently wrong.
[1] To give some perspectives on the GDP contributed by different sectors https://www.statista.com/statistics/247991/value-added-to-the-us-gdp-by-industry/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/247991/value-added-to-th...
- nomel 5y ago> To give some perspectives on the GDP contributed by different sectors This is not the correct measurement of loss, since it's only first order. Second order includes the industries involved in the entire supply chain for each, the shortages that would be created, and spending for a significant portion of the population going to zero (or, with previous government assistance, not nearly enough).