3 ms·

> In fact the clotting issue is occurring at the same rate as in the general population - 5 per 1M people. No, blood clotting occurred at roughly 1.5-2x the ra

> In fact the clotting issue is occurring at the same rate as in the general population - 5 per 1M people. No, blood clotting occurred at roughly 1.5-2x the rate, so ~1 per 100k. Look at the data from the UK, Germany or Norway, which raised the rare side effects independently with the EMA [1]. No doubt that underreporting is a real issue, but how is it different to Covid or any other drug/disease? Wouldn't you agree that underreporting is lowest in a pandemic? > "This is just a theory." How likely do you think your theory is? Have you spoken to a medical professional or an immunologist about your theory? [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embolic_and_thrombotic_events_after_COVID-19_vaccination https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embolic_and_thrombotic_events_...

giantg2 5y ago
Where are you getting the 2x going rate number? I see in this link (from your wiki page) that they are estimating the background occurence to be between 2-16 per 1M. It also explains why they think Germany's numbers are higher. The UK numbers would still be in line with the background range I found earlier (2-5 per 1M). Either way, I think it's still consistent with the idea that events with low background rates are easier to catch because each event carries more significance and is less likely to face bias from the doctor to write it off as in related. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56594189 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56594189 "No doubt that underreporting is a real issue, but how is it different to Covid or any other drug/disease? Wouldn't you agree that underreporting is lowest in a pandemic?" I don't think it's significantly different. The emergency use order did carry additional reporting requirements, but it also opened it up to be administered by people who would not normally administer vaccines and would not likely be familiar with VAERS, and in some cases patients doesn't know who administered it to contact them to file the report. If you couple this with the massive increase in vaccines administered, I think the number of unreported events are higher now, but the rate is likely similar to before. That's just my guess based on the reasons above and my own experiences. Why do you think it would be lowest now? "How likely do you think your theory is? Have you spoken to a medical professional or an immunologist about your theory?" I'm not sure how likely it is. I feel like it depends mostly on the individual, like most autoimmune diseases do. I did discuss this with a doctor and they said that it is a reasonable question and theory that appears not to have any studies looking into either side of it. It's possible we won't know for years or decades, especially since we don't even know how autoimmune antibodies levels lead to disease in general.
- Pyramus 5y ago
  PEI (German Institute for Vaccines) on 16 Mar 2021 (!) [1]: "(4) The number of these cases after vaccination with COVID-19 AstraZeneca is statistically significantly higher than the number of cerebral venous thromboses that normally occur in the unvaccinated population. For this purpose, an observed-versus-expected analysis was performed, comparing the number of cases expected without vaccination in a 14-day time window with the number of cases reported after approximately 1.6 million AstraZeneca vaccinations in Germany. About one case would have been expected, and seven cases had been reported." UK vaccine safety report up to 11 Aug 2021 [2]: "The overall incidence after first or unknown doses was 14.9 per million doses." German safety report up to 31 Jul 2021 [3, in German], cf. table 7,8: Women: 1.462 cases per 100k doses Men: 1.305 cases per 100k doses Can't find the numbers for Norway, they initially reported the highest number per 100k. > I'm not sure how likely it is. Do I understand correctly that there is no mechanism specific to how the mRNA vaccines work? The effect you describe ("we are exposing a spike protein on a cell wall") is far more common in Covid due to how the abundance of expression of the spike protein, correct? [1] https://www.pei.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/EN/newsroom-en/hp-news/faq-temporary-suspension-astrazeneca.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=7 https://www.pei.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/EN/newsroom-en/hp-ne... [2] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid... [3] https://www.pei.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/newsroom/dossiers/sicherheitsberichte/sicherheitsbericht-27-12-bis-31-07-21.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=5 https://www.pei.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/newsroom/dossiers...
  - giantg2 5y ago
    That's interesting. It looks like there is a lot of conflicting information on the background rate. And even the UK rate in the quote is higher than the Germany's, yet the article I linked to from the wiki is saying Germany's is higher, and that the estimates on background level vary wildly. Although if it is multiple times the normal rate, then this would not be an example of sensitive reporting/detection anyways (not to mention that EU reporting takes place outside of the VAERS system). "Do I understand correctly that there is no mechanism specific to how the mRNA vaccines work?" No. Covid does not add a spike protein to an existing cell. It replicates an entire covid cell. So you have covid virus with a spike and a bunch of other covid proteins if you have covid. Or you have a human cell with a partial spike and all the normal human cell proteins. The immune system usually codes off of, or attacks, multiple proteins. It's possible the immune system will identify the spike and some of the normal cell proteins. A similar sort of mimicry is theorized to occur when the proteins in a virus are similar enough to a human protein. https://www.nytimes.com/1996/12/31/science/virus-s-similarity-to-body-s-proteins-may-explain-autoimmune-diseases.html https://www.nytimes.com/1996/12/31/science/virus-s-similarit...

giantg2 5y ago

Where are you getting the 2x going rate number? I see in this link (from your wiki page) that they are estimating the background occurence to be between 2-16 per 1M. It also explains why they think Germany's numbers are higher. The UK numbers would still be in line with the background range I found earlier (2-5 per 1M). Either way, I think it's still consistent with the idea that events with low background rates are easier to catch because each event carries more significance and is less likely to face bias from the doctor to write it off as in related. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56594189 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56594189 "No doubt that underreporting is a real issue, but how is it different to Covid or any other drug/disease? Wouldn't you agree that underreporting is lowest in a pandemic?" I don't think it's significantly different. The emergency use order did carry additional reporting requirements, but it also opened it up to be administered by people who would not normally administer vaccines and would not likely be familiar with VAERS, and in some cases patients doesn't know who administered it to contact them to file the report. If you couple this with the massive increase in vaccines administered, I think the number of unreported events are higher now, but the rate is likely similar to before. That's just my guess based on the reasons above and my own experiences. Why do you think it would be lowest now? "How likely do you think your theory is? Have you spoken to a medical professional or an immunologist about your theory?" I'm not sure how likely it is. I feel like it depends mostly on the individual, like most autoimmune diseases do. I did discuss this with a doctor and they said that it is a reasonable question and theory that appears not to have any studies looking into either side of it. It's possible we won't know for years or decades, especially since we don't even know how autoimmune antibodies levels lead to disease in general.

Pyramus 5y ago
PEI (German Institute for Vaccines) on 16 Mar 2021 (!) [1]: "(4) The number of these cases after vaccination with COVID-19 AstraZeneca is statistically significantly higher than the number of cerebral venous thromboses that normally occur in the unvaccinated population. For this purpose, an observed-versus-expected analysis was performed, comparing the number of cases expected without vaccination in a 14-day time window with the number of cases reported after approximately 1.6 million AstraZeneca vaccinations in Germany. About one case would have been expected, and seven cases had been reported." UK vaccine safety report up to 11 Aug 2021 [2]: "The overall incidence after first or unknown doses was 14.9 per million doses." German safety report up to 31 Jul 2021 [3, in German], cf. table 7,8: Women: 1.462 cases per 100k doses Men: 1.305 cases per 100k doses Can't find the numbers for Norway, they initially reported the highest number per 100k. > I'm not sure how likely it is. Do I understand correctly that there is no mechanism specific to how the mRNA vaccines work? The effect you describe ("we are exposing a spike protein on a cell wall") is far more common in Covid due to how the abundance of expression of the spike protein, correct? [1] https://www.pei.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/EN/newsroom-en/hp-news/faq-temporary-suspension-astrazeneca.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=7 https://www.pei.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/EN/newsroom-en/hp-ne... [2] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid... [3] https://www.pei.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/newsroom/dossiers/sicherheitsberichte/sicherheitsbericht-27-12-bis-31-07-21.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=5 https://www.pei.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/newsroom/dossiers...
- giantg2 5y ago
  That's interesting. It looks like there is a lot of conflicting information on the background rate. And even the UK rate in the quote is higher than the Germany's, yet the article I linked to from the wiki is saying Germany's is higher, and that the estimates on background level vary wildly. Although if it is multiple times the normal rate, then this would not be an example of sensitive reporting/detection anyways (not to mention that EU reporting takes place outside of the VAERS system). "Do I understand correctly that there is no mechanism specific to how the mRNA vaccines work?" No. Covid does not add a spike protein to an existing cell. It replicates an entire covid cell. So you have covid virus with a spike and a bunch of other covid proteins if you have covid. Or you have a human cell with a partial spike and all the normal human cell proteins. The immune system usually codes off of, or attacks, multiple proteins. It's possible the immune system will identify the spike and some of the normal cell proteins. A similar sort of mimicry is theorized to occur when the proteins in a virus are similar enough to a human protein. https://www.nytimes.com/1996/12/31/science/virus-s-similarity-to-body-s-proteins-may-explain-autoimmune-diseases.html https://www.nytimes.com/1996/12/31/science/virus-s-similarit...