2 ms·
This is incorrect. Researchers have rushed out results on Ct counts with disclaimers on them that they don't know how that affects actual viral loads or transm
by lamontcg 5y ago
This is incorrect. Researchers have rushed out results on Ct counts with disclaimers on them that they don't know how that affects actual viral loads or transmissibility.
What we now know is that viral culturability is lower in vaccinated individuals at the same Ct count:
https://journals.aps.org/prx/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevX.11.031020 https://journals.aps.org/prx/abstract/10.1103/PhysRevX.11.03...
We've also known that Ct counts themselves drop faster in vaccinated individuals:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v...
Nobody has done a study on actual transmissibility and e.g. the household attack rate of Delta in vaccinated individuals. Signs are very clearly pointing to expectations that it would be lower now. It looks like vaccinated individuals with the same amount of symptoms have similar amounts of mRNA loads, but those have less culturable virus and clear faster than unvaccinated infections (which makes like ABSOLUTELY TONS of logical sense since the vaccination allows the immune system to get ahead of the virus and the immune system is dismantling infected cells faster in vaccinated individuals so there's more "dead soldiers" around and the battle is over quicker -- analogy breaks down though because the viral debris stimulates the immune system as well which causes symptoms).
There's statements in the media that "asymptomatic vaccinated individuals might be silently spreading Delta" which have been backed up with no research other than wild extrapolation from the headline Ct values. Meanwhile we know that for a fully asymptomatic course of illness (as opposed to the presymptomatic phase of an illness) that the household attack rate is down by a factor of 10 (although with old-school D614G).
I'm still waiting for evidence that vaccinated individuals are even found to cause superspreading events (where a single vaccinated individual infects > 10 other people at an event). My default hypothesis is that the R0 of delta in vaccinated individuals is probably less than 1.0 and I haven't seen any ACTUAL SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE to suggest otherwise. There was one study done in Israel that found that 80% of breakthrough cases passed it on to nobody and with 1-3 cases for the rest of the 20% that puts the R0 below 1.0, but that was done during Alpha so I always lose that argument in favor of fearmongering over uncertainty.