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Last time I saw a number, vaccinations offer more than ~60% protection against infection with Delta altogether - did you run the numbers / see some study to arr

Last time I saw a number, vaccinations offer more than ~60% protection against infection with Delta altogether - did you run the numbers / see some study to arrive at "they're spreading it to more people", or is this a case of "it aligns with what I already thought / it justifies my current behavior so it must be true"?

ineedasername 5y ago
it justifies my current behavior so it must be true That would be my guess, since actual evidence shows that vaccinated people are infectious for a significantly shorter period of time: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-variant.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-var...
h3cate 5y ago
Take out the word more and I will stand by what I said. Also you might have less chance of getting infected but you also are less likely to develop symptoms and so will most likely not isolate when you are infected. You are trying to condense a very complex scenario into a very simple argument.
- bialpio 5y ago
  > Take out the word more (...) "With the BNT162b2 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 93.7% (95% CI, 91.6 to 95.3) among persons with the alpha variant and 88.0% (95% CI, 85.3 to 90.1) among those with the delta variant. With the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 74.5% (95% CI, 68.4 to 79.4) among persons with the alpha variant and 67.0% (95% CI, 61.3 to 71.8) among those with the delta variant." https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891 On the contrary, I'm actually tightening my estimation to "more than 67%" (95% CI @ 61.3%-71.8%). BNT162b2 is Pfizer, ChAdOx1 is AstraZeneca. > (...) also are less likely to develop symptoms and so will most likely not isolate when you are infected. Yup, so multiply those likelihoods and let me know what number you arrived at and what assumptions did you take so that we can compare some concrete estimations. Or share some article that tried to estimate this. > You are trying to condense a very complex scenario into a very simple argument. I'm willing to be convinced otherwise by some data, so far the only thing you're offering is an opinion.

ineedasername 5y ago

it justifies my current behavior so it must be true That would be my guess, since actual evidence shows that vaccinated people are infectious for a significantly shorter period of time: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-variant.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-var...

h3cate 5y ago

Take out the word more and I will stand by what I said. Also you might have less chance of getting infected but you also are less likely to develop symptoms and so will most likely not isolate when you are infected. You are trying to condense a very complex scenario into a very simple argument.

bialpio 5y ago
> Take out the word more (...) "With the BNT162b2 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 93.7% (95% CI, 91.6 to 95.3) among persons with the alpha variant and 88.0% (95% CI, 85.3 to 90.1) among those with the delta variant. With the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 74.5% (95% CI, 68.4 to 79.4) among persons with the alpha variant and 67.0% (95% CI, 61.3 to 71.8) among those with the delta variant." https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891 On the contrary, I'm actually tightening my estimation to "more than 67%" (95% CI @ 61.3%-71.8%). BNT162b2 is Pfizer, ChAdOx1 is AstraZeneca. > (...) also are less likely to develop symptoms and so will most likely not isolate when you are infected. Yup, so multiply those likelihoods and let me know what number you arrived at and what assumptions did you take so that we can compare some concrete estimations. Or share some article that tried to estimate this. > You are trying to condense a very complex scenario into a very simple argument. I'm willing to be convinced otherwise by some data, so far the only thing you're offering is an opinion.