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Even with your numbers it puts a kid's chances of ending up hospitalized with covid at 1 in 128. Granted we're probably way under counting infections in that ag

Even with your numbers it puts a kid's chances of ending up hospitalized with covid at 1 in 128. Granted we're probably way under counting infections in that age group, but I'll still feel much better when my kid is vaccinated.

freewilly1040 5y ago
The positive case count is not the denominator. The chances of your kid ending up hospitalized with Covid are 287 / 100K, or .29%.
- maccam94 5y ago
  There's about 50 million kids under 12 in the US, so while that percentage looks small that's still ~150,000 kids going to the hospital. I believe the real percentage is probably a bit lower due to underreported infections, but it's worth remembering that even small percentages can have huge effects in a country with hundreds of millions of people.
  - freewilly1040 5y ago
    Yes, given a large denominator rare events will happen. So what? The relevant argument with kids and Delta is not about whether it happens to some people, it's whether the risk rates high enough to mobilize large scale, disruptive countermeasures. I can only find data on deaths, not hospitalizations [1], but assuming the numbers are roughly proportional here are things that are more dangerous to kids than Delta: - Drug ODs - Car accidents - Cancer - Heart disease - Drowning - Suffocation Caveat of course is that the data might be out of date, at least with respect to pockets with high rates of infection [1] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmsr1804754 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmsr1804754
- marwatk 5y ago
  Can you help me understand why the case count isn't the denominator? The posted numbers seem to imply that if 37k out of 100k kids had covid, 287 of them end up in the hospital. Does it not follow that if 100k out of 100k had covid that 775 kids would have been hospitalized?
  - freewilly1040 5y ago
    It's in your parent comment: > Granted we're probably way under counting infections in that age group People get tested when they feel sick enough to be worried, there are many very minor and/or asymptomatic cases for which we won't have data. By using the positive case counts as the denominator you are using the most serious slice of cases to argue that coronavirus infections are serious.
    - marwatk 5y ago
      I'm not sure that follows. That would imply that every kid has already had/been exposed to COVID and that's resulted in those per 100k numbers. It's definitely not exact to use the infection as the denominator, but I'd argue it's much closer than using the 100k as the denominator. I think I stand by my original post.

freewilly1040 5y ago

The positive case count is not the denominator. The chances of your kid ending up hospitalized with Covid are 287 / 100K, or .29%.

maccam94 5y ago
There's about 50 million kids under 12 in the US, so while that percentage looks small that's still ~150,000 kids going to the hospital. I believe the real percentage is probably a bit lower due to underreported infections, but it's worth remembering that even small percentages can have huge effects in a country with hundreds of millions of people.
- freewilly1040 5y ago
  Yes, given a large denominator rare events will happen. So what? The relevant argument with kids and Delta is not about whether it happens to some people, it's whether the risk rates high enough to mobilize large scale, disruptive countermeasures. I can only find data on deaths, not hospitalizations [1], but assuming the numbers are roughly proportional here are things that are more dangerous to kids than Delta: - Drug ODs - Car accidents - Cancer - Heart disease - Drowning - Suffocation Caveat of course is that the data might be out of date, at least with respect to pockets with high rates of infection [1] https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmsr1804754 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmsr1804754
marwatk 5y ago
Can you help me understand why the case count isn't the denominator? The posted numbers seem to imply that if 37k out of 100k kids had covid, 287 of them end up in the hospital. Does it not follow that if 100k out of 100k had covid that 775 kids would have been hospitalized?
- freewilly1040 5y ago
  It's in your parent comment: > Granted we're probably way under counting infections in that age group People get tested when they feel sick enough to be worried, there are many very minor and/or asymptomatic cases for which we won't have data. By using the positive case counts as the denominator you are using the most serious slice of cases to argue that coronavirus infections are serious.
  - marwatk 5y ago
    I'm not sure that follows. That would imply that every kid has already had/been exposed to COVID and that's resulted in those per 100k numbers. It's definitely not exact to use the infection as the denominator, but I'd argue it's much closer than using the 100k as the denominator. I think I stand by my original post.