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Your first link reports that out of the thousands of total cases, only 20 are in the hospital, 9 of which are in the ICU. This does not support the claim that y

Your first link reports that out of the thousands of total cases, only 20 are in the hospital, 9 of which are in the ICU. This does not support the claim that young people are "widely" ending up in the hospital from COVID. A COVID case != serious illness, especially in vaccinated individuals. We need to stop pretending that they are equivalent.

shakna 5y ago
> Your first link reports that out of the thousands of total cases, only 20 are in the hospital, 9 of which are in the ICU. My first link reports 492 total active cases, not thousands. If you want to use the total cases, then you should be noting that 820 people have died, and 20,212 have recovered. The mortality calculated from that is a simple 3.8%. 20 hospitalised cases out of 492 total active cases, is about 4%, and the 9 in ICU are about 2% of total active cases.
- MontyCarloHall 5y ago
  >My first link reports 492 total active cases, not thousands. You are correct, I was looking at total cases, not active cases. My apologies! However, this still does not support the claim that young people are "widely" going to the hospital. Even assuming that age ranges are going to the hospital at equal rates (which is a preposterous assumption), given 20 total hospitalizations spread across 492 active cases (of which 290 are ages 0-29), we would only expect ~11/290 active COVID cases under 30 to be hospitalized. But again, this an extremely unrealistic upper bound, based on the ludicrous assumption that all ages get hospitalized at equal rates. On top of that, these data are from Australia, where the population is still not widely vaccinated. I assume the vast majority of hospitalized COVID patients in Victoria are not fully vaccinated. >The mortality calculated from that is a simple 3.8%. This (and all previous calculations) depend on accurately estimating the denominator, i.e. the total number of cases. Given the amount of asymptomatic/low symptomatic cases, how is this accurately done? Has the composition of who gets tested shifted over the course of the pandemic? Has it ever actually accurately sampled the true number of cases?

shakna 5y ago

> Your first link reports that out of the thousands of total cases, only 20 are in the hospital, 9 of which are in the ICU. My first link reports 492 total active cases, not thousands. If you want to use the total cases, then you should be noting that 820 people have died, and 20,212 have recovered. The mortality calculated from that is a simple 3.8%. 20 hospitalised cases out of 492 total active cases, is about 4%, and the 9 in ICU are about 2% of total active cases.

MontyCarloHall 5y ago
>My first link reports 492 total active cases, not thousands. You are correct, I was looking at total cases, not active cases. My apologies! However, this still does not support the claim that young people are "widely" going to the hospital. Even assuming that age ranges are going to the hospital at equal rates (which is a preposterous assumption), given 20 total hospitalizations spread across 492 active cases (of which 290 are ages 0-29), we would only expect ~11/290 active COVID cases under 30 to be hospitalized. But again, this an extremely unrealistic upper bound, based on the ludicrous assumption that all ages get hospitalized at equal rates. On top of that, these data are from Australia, where the population is still not widely vaccinated. I assume the vast majority of hospitalized COVID patients in Victoria are not fully vaccinated. >The mortality calculated from that is a simple 3.8%. This (and all previous calculations) depend on accurately estimating the denominator, i.e. the total number of cases. Given the amount of asymptomatic/low symptomatic cases, how is this accurately done? Has the composition of who gets tested shifted over the course of the pandemic? Has it ever actually accurately sampled the true number of cases?