3 ms·

I think you put on your tinfoil hat by mistake there buddy. None of the numbers you provided have any sort of relevance to the links you posted. Net breakthrou

I think you put on your tinfoil hat by mistake there buddy. None of the numbers you provided have any sort of relevance to the links you posted. Net breakthrough deaths, as far as I can tell, is not a real metric. And only 4 million people have died of covid globally to begin with...

nanis 5y ago
> I think you put on your tinfoil hat by mistake there buddy. Condescension is not helpful. > Net breakthrough deaths, ..., is not a real metric. What terminology would you recommend for getting the number of people who died from Covid19 after being fully vaccinated against Covid19? >> Deaths† 1,587 (20%) >> †341 (21%) of 1,587 fatal cases reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19. The numbers are from the most recent update to CDC's page[1]. So, "net breakthrough deaths" as I called them are 1,587 - 341 = 1,246. > As of August 9, 2021, more than 166 million people in the United States had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. So, 1,246/166 = 7.5 breakthrough deaths per million vaccinated. Since the CDC do not report these as a time series, but they just overwrite the most recent numbers, I linked to snapshots of the same page over time[2]. If there is an arithmetic error, I would like to know. Now, if you look at the snapshot from April 30[3], the numbers are: >> As of April 20, 2021, more than 87 million people in the United States had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. >> Deaths† 88 (1%) >> †11 (13%) of the 88 fatal cases were reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19. So, the net breakthrough death rate is 0.9 per million fully vaccinated. 7.5/0.9 - 1 = 7.33 meaning a 733% increase in the rate. [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/bre... [2]: https://archive.ph/https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html https://archive.ph/https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/hea... [3]: https://archive.ph/DoRHj https://archive.ph/DoRHj
- spywaregorilla 5y ago
  > What terminology would you recommend for getting the number of people who died from Covid19 after being fully vaccinated against Covid19? "Breakthrough deaths" not "Net breakthrough deaths" Your post is flagged and unreadable now but I'm pretty sure you were claiming 8 million breakthrough deaths. That's obviously wrong because it's two times larger than the total number of deaths globally among all people. > Since the CDC do not report these as a time series, but they just overwrite the most recent numbers, I linked to snapshots of the same page over time[2]. If there is an arithmetic error, I would like to know Your error comes from failing to compare to the right control group. Vaccinated people have a tendency to be much higher risk than the unvaccinated. Notably, no children are in this group. You're getting fooled by bayes law here. The baseline risk of people who were vaccinated was on average much higher. 80% of people over 75 are vaccinated. Less than half of people under 30 are. And on top of that are missing the bigger picture that the most conservative estimates I've seen suggest 79% of deaths are among the unvaccinated. Combine that with the previous statement about who is getting vaccinated and you have a very clear picture that vaccines are drastically helping reduce death rates.
  - nanis 5y ago
    > Breakthrough deaths" not "Net breakthrough deaths" That is nonsense. This is the "gross" figure reported by CDC[1]: >> Deaths† 1,587 The footnote is: >> †341 (21%) of 1,587 fatal cases reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19. So the net number of deaths due to Covid19 in people with breakthrough infections is 1,587- 341. "Breakthrough deaths" would use the gross figure, and result in a breakthrough death rate of 1,587/166 = 9.6/million (or 10/million if you round up). I did not want to overstate, so I used the number of deaths net of those where the cause of death was noted not to be related to Covid19. > I'm pretty sure you were claiming 8 million breakthrough deaths. That is complete and utter nonsense. I guess people flag without reading. I said: >> As of August 9, net breakthrough deaths stood at 8/million and net breakthrough hospitalizations stood at 35/million, up 900% and 733%, respectively, since April 20. Note *8/million* commonly read as "eight per million" (I rounded up from 7.5/million). [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/bre...
    - nanis 5y ago
      Right, now go and downvote an accurate explanation of how a baseless accusation ("you claimed eight million deaths") is wrong. Also, just saw this: > Net implies you are counting positives and subtracting negatives. That is incorrect. See https://www.google.com/search?q=define%3Anet https://www.google.com/search?q=define%3Anet > 1 : free from all charges or deductions: such as. a : remaining after the deduction of all charges, outlay, or loss net earnings net worth — compare gross. b : excluding all tare net weight. 2 : excluding all nonessential considerations : basic, final the net result net effect. Note (2): "excluding all nonessential considerations". In calculating the rate of deaths from Covid19 among those who are fully vaccinated against Covid19, the people who were infected from Covid19 but did not die from it is "nonessential consideration". There is nothing wrong with using "net" here. Don't hang your hat on it. If anyone is willing to think, the increasing rate is problematic, because, naturally, there is a lag between when one is vaccinated and infected. Another lag between infection and hospitalization. Another lag between hospitalization and death. Update: CDC just updated the numbers. The rate of death from Covid19 among those fully vaccinated against Covid19 now stands at 8.6/million. Deleting previous comments about updates not being made. > compare current deaths of vaccinated individuals vs unvaccinated individuals That'd be a nice change from the cumulative totals everyone is using. Do you know where I can find those data? Also, note that the people who haven't yet had their second shot or people whose second shot was less than two weeks ago are counted as "unvaccinated". > Your math is pointless. It would only be pointless if we didn't care about correctly estimating the risk of serious illness or hospitalization from Covid19 among the fully vaccinated. Given the entirety of the current information, it is reasonable to believe that people who's at greatest risk for suffering seriously or die from Covid19 are going to be in that situation with or without a vaccine.
- nl 5y ago
  Are you claiming this is good or bad? By comparison, in some years the influenza vaccine is under 40% effective. 0.9 deaths per 1 million is amazing (especially given the likely age profile). See https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200902/how-effective-is-the-flu-vaccine https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200902/how-effective-is-th... for some information about the flu vaccine. In April the vaccination rate was much lower. In a hypothetical situation where 100% of people are vaccinated, all Covid deaths will be vaccinated people. With so small numbers if vaccinated people dying we should expect that deaths per million to jump around depending on regional outbreaks for a while.
  - rrock 5y ago
    In addition, in April we didn’t have the delta variant in the US.
  - nanis 5y ago
    > Are you claiming this is good or bad? Neither. In April, the rate of death from Covid19 among those fully vaccinated against Covid19 was 0.9/million. By August 9, it was at 7.5/million. CDC used to provide updates every Friday for the preceding Monday. The rate increased with every report. The last update was on August 13. So, I wondered why they had not updated on Friday this time. I see now that they just posted an update since this thread started[1] and after the approval was announced. This will increase my posterior belief that the update had been held back to happen after the approval announcement for political reasons. Total deaths: 1,829 Asymptomatic or not Covid19 related: 371 Rate (1,829 - 371)/168 = 8.7/million. Up again. [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/bre...

nanis 5y ago

> I think you put on your tinfoil hat by mistake there buddy. Condescension is not helpful. > Net breakthrough deaths, ..., is not a real metric. What terminology would you recommend for getting the number of people who died from Covid19 after being fully vaccinated against Covid19? >> Deaths† 1,587 (20%) >> †341 (21%) of 1,587 fatal cases reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19. The numbers are from the most recent update to CDC's page[1]. So, "net breakthrough deaths" as I called them are 1,587 - 341 = 1,246. > As of August 9, 2021, more than 166 million people in the United States had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. So, 1,246/166 = 7.5 breakthrough deaths per million vaccinated. Since the CDC do not report these as a time series, but they just overwrite the most recent numbers, I linked to snapshots of the same page over time[2]. If there is an arithmetic error, I would like to know. Now, if you look at the snapshot from April 30[3], the numbers are: >> As of April 20, 2021, more than 87 million people in the United States had been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. >> Deaths† 88 (1%) >> †11 (13%) of the 88 fatal cases were reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19. So, the net breakthrough death rate is 0.9 per million fully vaccinated. 7.5/0.9 - 1 = 7.33 meaning a 733% increase in the rate. [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/bre... [2]: https://archive.ph/https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html https://archive.ph/https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/hea... [3]: https://archive.ph/DoRHj https://archive.ph/DoRHj

spywaregorilla 5y ago
> What terminology would you recommend for getting the number of people who died from Covid19 after being fully vaccinated against Covid19? "Breakthrough deaths" not "Net breakthrough deaths" Your post is flagged and unreadable now but I'm pretty sure you were claiming 8 million breakthrough deaths. That's obviously wrong because it's two times larger than the total number of deaths globally among all people. > Since the CDC do not report these as a time series, but they just overwrite the most recent numbers, I linked to snapshots of the same page over time[2]. If there is an arithmetic error, I would like to know Your error comes from failing to compare to the right control group. Vaccinated people have a tendency to be much higher risk than the unvaccinated. Notably, no children are in this group. You're getting fooled by bayes law here. The baseline risk of people who were vaccinated was on average much higher. 80% of people over 75 are vaccinated. Less than half of people under 30 are. And on top of that are missing the bigger picture that the most conservative estimates I've seen suggest 79% of deaths are among the unvaccinated. Combine that with the previous statement about who is getting vaccinated and you have a very clear picture that vaccines are drastically helping reduce death rates.
- nanis 5y ago
  > Breakthrough deaths" not "Net breakthrough deaths" That is nonsense. This is the "gross" figure reported by CDC[1]: >> Deaths† 1,587 The footnote is: >> †341 (21%) of 1,587 fatal cases reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19. So the net number of deaths due to Covid19 in people with breakthrough infections is 1,587- 341. "Breakthrough deaths" would use the gross figure, and result in a breakthrough death rate of 1,587/166 = 9.6/million (or 10/million if you round up). I did not want to overstate, so I used the number of deaths net of those where the cause of death was noted not to be related to Covid19. > I'm pretty sure you were claiming 8 million breakthrough deaths. That is complete and utter nonsense. I guess people flag without reading. I said: >> As of August 9, net breakthrough deaths stood at 8/million and net breakthrough hospitalizations stood at 35/million, up 900% and 733%, respectively, since April 20. Note *8/million* commonly read as "eight per million" (I rounded up from 7.5/million). [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/bre...
  - nanis 5y ago
    Right, now go and downvote an accurate explanation of how a baseless accusation ("you claimed eight million deaths") is wrong. Also, just saw this: > Net implies you are counting positives and subtracting negatives. That is incorrect. See https://www.google.com/search?q=define%3Anet https://www.google.com/search?q=define%3Anet > 1 : free from all charges or deductions: such as. a : remaining after the deduction of all charges, outlay, or loss net earnings net worth — compare gross. b : excluding all tare net weight. 2 : excluding all nonessential considerations : basic, final the net result net effect. Note (2): "excluding all nonessential considerations". In calculating the rate of deaths from Covid19 among those who are fully vaccinated against Covid19, the people who were infected from Covid19 but did not die from it is "nonessential consideration". There is nothing wrong with using "net" here. Don't hang your hat on it. If anyone is willing to think, the increasing rate is problematic, because, naturally, there is a lag between when one is vaccinated and infected. Another lag between infection and hospitalization. Another lag between hospitalization and death. Update: CDC just updated the numbers. The rate of death from Covid19 among those fully vaccinated against Covid19 now stands at 8.6/million. Deleting previous comments about updates not being made. > compare current deaths of vaccinated individuals vs unvaccinated individuals That'd be a nice change from the cumulative totals everyone is using. Do you know where I can find those data? Also, note that the people who haven't yet had their second shot or people whose second shot was less than two weeks ago are counted as "unvaccinated". > Your math is pointless. It would only be pointless if we didn't care about correctly estimating the risk of serious illness or hospitalization from Covid19 among the fully vaccinated. Given the entirety of the current information, it is reasonable to believe that people who's at greatest risk for suffering seriously or die from Covid19 are going to be in that situation with or without a vaccine.
nl 5y ago
Are you claiming this is good or bad? By comparison, in some years the influenza vaccine is under 40% effective. 0.9 deaths per 1 million is amazing (especially given the likely age profile). See https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200902/how-effective-is-the-flu-vaccine https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200902/how-effective-is-th... for some information about the flu vaccine. In April the vaccination rate was much lower. In a hypothetical situation where 100% of people are vaccinated, all Covid deaths will be vaccinated people. With so small numbers if vaccinated people dying we should expect that deaths per million to jump around depending on regional outbreaks for a while.
- rrock 5y ago
  In addition, in April we didn’t have the delta variant in the US.
- nanis 5y ago
  > Are you claiming this is good or bad? Neither. In April, the rate of death from Covid19 among those fully vaccinated against Covid19 was 0.9/million. By August 9, it was at 7.5/million. CDC used to provide updates every Friday for the preceding Monday. The rate increased with every report. The last update was on August 13. So, I wondered why they had not updated on Friday this time. I see now that they just posted an update since this thread started[1] and after the approval was announced. This will increase my posterior belief that the update had been held back to happen after the approval announcement for political reasons. Total deaths: 1,829 Asymptomatic or not Covid19 related: 371 Rate (1,829 - 371)/168 = 8.7/million. Up again. [1]: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/bre...