5 ms·

What if it you compare that to a mortality rate of 1.7%? All of a sudden .001 % death rate seems pretty good. What do I know though — this isn’t my area.

nanis 5y ago
Where exactly do you get the 1.7%? Is it computed the same way the breakthrough deaths are computed? What is the denominator in each case? I see, you are using this table[1] ... This is the case fatality rate (which is inflated depending on how many infections are never recorded). Using the numbers provided by the CDC, if we put the cases in the denominator and not the vaccinated population, we have: Hospitalized or fatal vaccine breakthrough cases reported to CDC 8,054 Deaths† 1,587 †341 (21%) of 1,587 fatal cases reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19. Now, if the CDC had not stopped reporting the number of infections, we'd have the correct comparison. If we take cases as the cases reported by CDC, we have (1,587 - 341)/8,054 = 15.5% of the cases resulting in death from Covid19 of a person who is fully vaccinated against Covid19. Why did the CDC stop reporting total breakthrough infections (which would have allowed an apples to apples comparison of CFR here)? [1]: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
- dannyz 5y ago
  Even if we had that data it wouldn't be a fair evaluation of vaccine efficacy. The elderly are the most vaccinated demographic, have the highest number of breakthrough infections, and have the highest mortality rate. There are too many confounding variables.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - DSMan195276 5y ago
    Just to add on to what you're pointing out, the existing UK data[1] makes this even more obvious. Technically it reports that about 2/3s of the total deaths were of vaccinated people (402 fully vaccinated deaths, 253 unvaccinated), even though only about 1/3 of cases are in fully vaccinated people (47,008 vs 151,054). But this is totally expected because the vaccinated rate in the >50 age range is extremely high, and they account for practically all the deaths (from those groups the <50 age range only accounts for 60 deaths, with 4/5 of those in the unvaccinated population). In that >50 population, there were way more vaccinated cases than unvaccinated (because the rate is so high), so if you calculate the CFR for just that age range it's actually about ~6% for the unvaccinated and only ~1.8% for the fully vaccinated, so in reality those who got the vaccine had much better outcomes even though when combining both age groups it looks like it was much worse. [1]: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1009243/Technical_Briefing_20.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
- thehappypm 5y ago
  In my home state, Massachusetts, .3% of the total population has died of Covid-19. If you make a safe assumption that not 100% of people have been infected you can make a very basic assumption that the infection fatality rate is around .5-2%.

nanis 5y ago

Where exactly do you get the 1.7%? Is it computed the same way the breakthrough deaths are computed? What is the denominator in each case? I see, you are using this table[1] ... This is the case fatality rate (which is inflated depending on how many infections are never recorded). Using the numbers provided by the CDC, if we put the cases in the denominator and not the vaccinated population, we have: Hospitalized or fatal vaccine breakthrough cases reported to CDC 8,054 Deaths† 1,587 †341 (21%) of 1,587 fatal cases reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19. Now, if the CDC had not stopped reporting the number of infections, we'd have the correct comparison. If we take cases as the cases reported by CDC, we have (1,587 - 341)/8,054 = 15.5% of the cases resulting in death from Covid19 of a person who is fully vaccinated against Covid19. Why did the CDC stop reporting total breakthrough infections (which would have allowed an apples to apples comparison of CFR here)? [1]: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

dannyz 5y ago
Even if we had that data it wouldn't be a fair evaluation of vaccine efficacy. The elderly are the most vaccinated demographic, have the highest number of breakthrough infections, and have the highest mortality rate. There are too many confounding variables.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- DSMan195276 5y ago
  Just to add on to what you're pointing out, the existing UK data[1] makes this even more obvious. Technically it reports that about 2/3s of the total deaths were of vaccinated people (402 fully vaccinated deaths, 253 unvaccinated), even though only about 1/3 of cases are in fully vaccinated people (47,008 vs 151,054). But this is totally expected because the vaccinated rate in the >50 age range is extremely high, and they account for practically all the deaths (from those groups the <50 age range only accounts for 60 deaths, with 4/5 of those in the unvaccinated population). In that >50 population, there were way more vaccinated cases than unvaccinated (because the rate is so high), so if you calculate the CFR for just that age range it's actually about ~6% for the unvaccinated and only ~1.8% for the fully vaccinated, so in reality those who got the vaccine had much better outcomes even though when combining both age groups it looks like it was much worse. [1]: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1009243/Technical_Briefing_20.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
thehappypm 5y ago
In my home state, Massachusetts, .3% of the total population has died of Covid-19. If you make a safe assumption that not 100% of people have been infected you can make a very basic assumption that the infection fatality rate is around .5-2%.