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But what's the end goal? Do we keep lockdown restrictions forever? The case fatality rate for a vaccinated population is really low. There must be an acceptable

But what's the end goal? Do we keep lockdown restrictions forever? The case fatality rate for a vaccinated population is really low. There must be an acceptable level - after all we don't lock down for other endemic viruses which also have non-zero CFRs. What is it? Have we reached it?

HarryHirsch 5y ago
We'll have to have some restrictions in place for the highest-risk activities. I really wouldn't want to give introductory lectures in a room that seats 250 people and has been in use all day and then find out, like the Reverend Jackson, that the vaccine protection has worn off.
- CountDrewku 5y ago
  >I really wouldn't want to give introductory lectures in a room that seats 250 people and has been in use all day and then find out, like the Reverend Jackson, that the vaccine protection has worn off. Ok then don't? No one is forcing you to go out. Let everyone else make their own decisions. I'm kinda tired of the hypochondriacs forcing everyone else to do what they want. Everyone has access to the vaccine, they can stay in and mask all they want, they do not have to go near people. There's absolutely no reason to be locking down the rest of society. The only argument to keep these restrictions in place is if the hospitals get over capacity and that's not happening.
  - bmitc 5y ago
    > if the hospitals get over capacity and that's not happening It’s happening in quite a few places.
    - c0nducktr 5y ago
      Some of these people appear to live in a completely different reality.
      - CountDrewku 5y ago
        Data for hospitals that are over capacity in the US please. Should be easy to find since I'm apparently living in alternate reality. https://protect-public.hhs.gov/pages/hospital-utilization https://protect-public.hhs.gov/pages/hospital-utilization Additionally you need to provide a strategy that would stop this. Since apparently mass vaccination and locking down for nearly 2 years didn't help. Or you can keep supporting the same thing and hoping for different results.
    - fidesomnes 5y ago
      no it isn't getting full yes, and sending patience farther away yes, but overflowing and collapse of order like in Contagion, no.
    - CountDrewku 5y ago
      Show me the data for the US please. https://protect-public.hhs.gov/pages/hospital-utilization https://protect-public.hhs.gov/pages/hospital-utilization
  - celticninja 5y ago
    Everyone can make their own decisions, but can everyone give an introductory lecture? Perhaps the 250 attendees can decide if they want to be there in person or remotely, why would you remove that choice from the person giving the lecture? And we are not talking about locking down the rest of society. That was the extreme end of the spectrum when we were trying to get it under control. The only place still with national lockdowns are NZ and Australia because they were able to contain and control the virus earlier on. Sounds like you are equating your experience with everyone. Not everyone has access to the vaccine, not everyone is able to work remotely, some people have to interact with the public as part of their job. Perhaps try looking at things from the perspective of people who are less fortunate than yourself. There is an underlying current of selfishness behind everything you say.
    - josephcsible 5y ago
      > Perhaps the 250 attendees can decide if they want to be there in person or remotely, why would you remove that choice from the person giving the lecture? If the lecturer is remote, then the 250 attendees don't have the choice to be there in person.
      - celticninja 5y ago
        Big screen in a lecture hall is one option.
    - CountDrewku 5y ago
      >Everyone can make their own decisions, but can everyone give an introductory lecture? Perhaps the 250 attendees can decide if they want to be there in person or remotely, why would you remove that choice from the person giving the lecture? How am I removing that choice? Did I say anywhere they were not allowed to host it virtually if they chose to do so? The only one removing choices is the individual that decides they don't want anyone in person. >Sounds like you are equating your experience with everyone. Not everyone has access to the vaccine, not everyone is able to work remotely, some people have to interact with the public as part of their job. Perhaps try looking at things from the perspective of people who are less fortunate than yourself. Every reason you listed here only supports NOT locking down. Everyone in the US does have access to the vaccine. I am looking at it correctly, you're the one that wants people not to work by locking down everything. What's your solution? Wait until everyone gets it, which will never happen? The irony in calling me the selfish one. I'm not making anyone do anything here. Exactly how is telling everyone they must do something not selfish? Anyone supporting more lockdowns/masking at this point is only doing it for themselves and no one else.
  - depaya 5y ago
    I'm tired of prudes telling me I can't drink and drive. Let everyone make their own decisions. Everyone else can stay home or drive sober if they want, but we shouldn't prevent the rest of society from having fun!
    - josephcsible 5y ago
      A better analogy than driving drunk would be driving at all.
      - boredumb 5y ago
        I think the analogy is that there is a small percentage of our population that cannot drive a vehicle without dying and so everyone has to stay home and not drive in order to get rid of the .06% of of the population that will die driving on the road.
    - CountDrewku 5y ago
      I wasn't aware that you could pass drunkenness through the air with no symptoms. That's new to me. Are you suggesting we should all be responsible for stopping other people from drunk driving and also stopping anyone from getting into a car with a drunk driver? Are you also attempting to suggest that everyone else get should have their drivers' license revoked for the few that are caught drunk driving? That's essentially what masking, forced vaccination, mandated passports is. Might wanna find a new metaphor. I'm sure you think that was an intelligent comparison but it absolutely sucks. You're comparing something that would take a deliberate act to something that might or might not be happening passively to you.
      - depaya 5y ago
        I agree it's not a great metaphor, but my point is that "let everyone make their own decisions" isn't some end-all argument. All rules and laws in society are about not letting people do whatever they want for the benefit of society at large. Also you're trying to appeal to emotion by framing mask wearing as some sort of punishment ("revoking" people's drivers licenses) vs a precaution (like wearing a seatbelt... or not driving drunk). Furthermore, people caught drunk driving DO get their licenses taken away.
- josephcsible 5y ago
  For how long? Certainly you can't mean forever.
  - HarryHirsch 5y ago
    Yes, forever, like gay men won't have orgies without condom any more.
lamontcg 5y ago
The acceptable level is pretty much defined by when the hospitals aren't falling over again. If everyone would just get vaccinated, we'd be there. Instead people are for whatever reason ignoring the risks of the virus, and if the rate of hospitalization in their age category is only 1 in 50, enough of them making that choice mean that 2% of them guessing wrong is knocking the hospital system over again.
- rainbowzootsuit 5y ago
  Maybe without a vaccination card or other pass that you're ineligible for the vaccine you get triaged right back out the door. That would help the hospital capacity, encourage vaccination, etc but it will probably need to get a bit more morgue capacity ramped up. Easier to train for.
  - lamontcg 5y ago
    The hippocratic oath prevents that fantasy.
    - rainbowzootsuit 5y ago
      That's why I called it triage. You can give steroids and O2 for home consumption? I guess it depends on the seriousness, on average, of the other people who are unable to use the hospital's services because it's overloaded and what their mortality rate is vs the unvaccinated who show up and are given some reasonable treatment to try, but not a bed. Not an easy decision or calculation to come up with.
toast0 5y ago
The acheivable goal of lockdowns outside of effictively island countries is to keep hospitals open with sufficient capacity. When hospitals don't have enough capacity, any reason to go to the hospital has a worse outcome. Physical beds are one thing, but staffing is a bigger issue. The problem is it's a tricky system to manage. We can measure hospital utilization, but that lags infections. We can mandate lockdowns, but compliance varies and too many changes risks more non-compliance. Also, there are existing reasons leading to too many people in hospitals that reduces capacity. And systemic issues that make staffing a challenge.
SuoDuanDao 5y ago
Public acceptance of perpetual lockdowns, or at least at-will lockdowns, probably is the goal. People get more tolerant of authoritarian governments when there's a high prevalence of infectious disease. Governments seeking re-election pushing a narrative that the danger from infectious diseases is high while also being seen to be 'doing something' is likely a self-reinforcing dynamic.
- HarryHirsch 5y ago
  To be honest, until two weeks ago the official narrative has been that we'll all go back to normal once everyone has taken the vaccine. Unfortunately, the virus has thrown a spanner into the works. This wasn't planned.
  - Mattasher 5y ago
    Maybe you remember way back at the very beginning that it was "two weeks to slow the spread"? The narrative has always been we‘ll be back to normal in X weeks if we are all good little boys and girls and do what we‘re told. Unless of course some other really good reason to lockdown arises, like that single case in NZ.
    - Chilko 5y ago
      By single case I assume you're referring the outbreak that has spread to 100+ cases in the last week (from transmission before the lockdown and associated households). If you use a country as an example, then please represent the situation there accurately.
      - Mattasher 5y ago
        "New Zealand To Begin a Three-Day Lockdown after a Single Case is Reported." Headline from The New York Times 5 days ago. I'm willing to believe this is fake news from the NYT, or that the situation has changed, but others are reporting it as well.

HarryHirsch 5y ago

We'll have to have some restrictions in place for the highest-risk activities. I really wouldn't want to give introductory lectures in a room that seats 250 people and has been in use all day and then find out, like the Reverend Jackson, that the vaccine protection has worn off.

CountDrewku 5y ago
>I really wouldn't want to give introductory lectures in a room that seats 250 people and has been in use all day and then find out, like the Reverend Jackson, that the vaccine protection has worn off. Ok then don't? No one is forcing you to go out. Let everyone else make their own decisions. I'm kinda tired of the hypochondriacs forcing everyone else to do what they want. Everyone has access to the vaccine, they can stay in and mask all they want, they do not have to go near people. There's absolutely no reason to be locking down the rest of society. The only argument to keep these restrictions in place is if the hospitals get over capacity and that's not happening.
- bmitc 5y ago
  > if the hospitals get over capacity and that's not happening It’s happening in quite a few places.
  - c0nducktr 5y ago
    Some of these people appear to live in a completely different reality.
    - CountDrewku 5y ago
      Data for hospitals that are over capacity in the US please. Should be easy to find since I'm apparently living in alternate reality. https://protect-public.hhs.gov/pages/hospital-utilization https://protect-public.hhs.gov/pages/hospital-utilization Additionally you need to provide a strategy that would stop this. Since apparently mass vaccination and locking down for nearly 2 years didn't help. Or you can keep supporting the same thing and hoping for different results.
  - fidesomnes 5y ago
    no it isn't getting full yes, and sending patience farther away yes, but overflowing and collapse of order like in Contagion, no.
  - CountDrewku 5y ago
    Show me the data for the US please. https://protect-public.hhs.gov/pages/hospital-utilization https://protect-public.hhs.gov/pages/hospital-utilization
- celticninja 5y ago
  Everyone can make their own decisions, but can everyone give an introductory lecture? Perhaps the 250 attendees can decide if they want to be there in person or remotely, why would you remove that choice from the person giving the lecture? And we are not talking about locking down the rest of society. That was the extreme end of the spectrum when we were trying to get it under control. The only place still with national lockdowns are NZ and Australia because they were able to contain and control the virus earlier on. Sounds like you are equating your experience with everyone. Not everyone has access to the vaccine, not everyone is able to work remotely, some people have to interact with the public as part of their job. Perhaps try looking at things from the perspective of people who are less fortunate than yourself. There is an underlying current of selfishness behind everything you say.
  - josephcsible 5y ago
    > Perhaps the 250 attendees can decide if they want to be there in person or remotely, why would you remove that choice from the person giving the lecture? If the lecturer is remote, then the 250 attendees don't have the choice to be there in person.
    - celticninja 5y ago
      Big screen in a lecture hall is one option.
  - CountDrewku 5y ago
    >Everyone can make their own decisions, but can everyone give an introductory lecture? Perhaps the 250 attendees can decide if they want to be there in person or remotely, why would you remove that choice from the person giving the lecture? How am I removing that choice? Did I say anywhere they were not allowed to host it virtually if they chose to do so? The only one removing choices is the individual that decides they don't want anyone in person. >Sounds like you are equating your experience with everyone. Not everyone has access to the vaccine, not everyone is able to work remotely, some people have to interact with the public as part of their job. Perhaps try looking at things from the perspective of people who are less fortunate than yourself. Every reason you listed here only supports NOT locking down. Everyone in the US does have access to the vaccine. I am looking at it correctly, you're the one that wants people not to work by locking down everything. What's your solution? Wait until everyone gets it, which will never happen? The irony in calling me the selfish one. I'm not making anyone do anything here. Exactly how is telling everyone they must do something not selfish? Anyone supporting more lockdowns/masking at this point is only doing it for themselves and no one else.
- depaya 5y ago
  I'm tired of prudes telling me I can't drink and drive. Let everyone make their own decisions. Everyone else can stay home or drive sober if they want, but we shouldn't prevent the rest of society from having fun!
  - josephcsible 5y ago
    A better analogy than driving drunk would be driving at all.
    - boredumb 5y ago
      I think the analogy is that there is a small percentage of our population that cannot drive a vehicle without dying and so everyone has to stay home and not drive in order to get rid of the .06% of of the population that will die driving on the road.
  - CountDrewku 5y ago
    I wasn't aware that you could pass drunkenness through the air with no symptoms. That's new to me. Are you suggesting we should all be responsible for stopping other people from drunk driving and also stopping anyone from getting into a car with a drunk driver? Are you also attempting to suggest that everyone else get should have their drivers' license revoked for the few that are caught drunk driving? That's essentially what masking, forced vaccination, mandated passports is. Might wanna find a new metaphor. I'm sure you think that was an intelligent comparison but it absolutely sucks. You're comparing something that would take a deliberate act to something that might or might not be happening passively to you.
    - depaya 5y ago
      I agree it's not a great metaphor, but my point is that "let everyone make their own decisions" isn't some end-all argument. All rules and laws in society are about not letting people do whatever they want for the benefit of society at large. Also you're trying to appeal to emotion by framing mask wearing as some sort of punishment ("revoking" people's drivers licenses) vs a precaution (like wearing a seatbelt... or not driving drunk). Furthermore, people caught drunk driving DO get their licenses taken away.
josephcsible 5y ago
For how long? Certainly you can't mean forever.
- HarryHirsch 5y ago
  Yes, forever, like gay men won't have orgies without condom any more.

lamontcg 5y ago

The acceptable level is pretty much defined by when the hospitals aren't falling over again. If everyone would just get vaccinated, we'd be there. Instead people are for whatever reason ignoring the risks of the virus, and if the rate of hospitalization in their age category is only 1 in 50, enough of them making that choice mean that 2% of them guessing wrong is knocking the hospital system over again.

rainbowzootsuit 5y ago
Maybe without a vaccination card or other pass that you're ineligible for the vaccine you get triaged right back out the door. That would help the hospital capacity, encourage vaccination, etc but it will probably need to get a bit more morgue capacity ramped up. Easier to train for.
- lamontcg 5y ago
  The hippocratic oath prevents that fantasy.
  - rainbowzootsuit 5y ago
    That's why I called it triage. You can give steroids and O2 for home consumption? I guess it depends on the seriousness, on average, of the other people who are unable to use the hospital's services because it's overloaded and what their mortality rate is vs the unvaccinated who show up and are given some reasonable treatment to try, but not a bed. Not an easy decision or calculation to come up with.

toast0 5y ago

The acheivable goal of lockdowns outside of effictively island countries is to keep hospitals open with sufficient capacity. When hospitals don't have enough capacity, any reason to go to the hospital has a worse outcome. Physical beds are one thing, but staffing is a bigger issue. The problem is it's a tricky system to manage. We can measure hospital utilization, but that lags infections. We can mandate lockdowns, but compliance varies and too many changes risks more non-compliance. Also, there are existing reasons leading to too many people in hospitals that reduces capacity. And systemic issues that make staffing a challenge.

SuoDuanDao 5y ago

Public acceptance of perpetual lockdowns, or at least at-will lockdowns, probably is the goal. People get more tolerant of authoritarian governments when there's a high prevalence of infectious disease. Governments seeking re-election pushing a narrative that the danger from infectious diseases is high while also being seen to be 'doing something' is likely a self-reinforcing dynamic.

HarryHirsch 5y ago
To be honest, until two weeks ago the official narrative has been that we'll all go back to normal once everyone has taken the vaccine. Unfortunately, the virus has thrown a spanner into the works. This wasn't planned.
- Mattasher 5y ago
  Maybe you remember way back at the very beginning that it was "two weeks to slow the spread"? The narrative has always been we‘ll be back to normal in X weeks if we are all good little boys and girls and do what we‘re told. Unless of course some other really good reason to lockdown arises, like that single case in NZ.
  - Chilko 5y ago
    By single case I assume you're referring the outbreak that has spread to 100+ cases in the last week (from transmission before the lockdown and associated households). If you use a country as an example, then please represent the situation there accurately.
    - Mattasher 5y ago
      "New Zealand To Begin a Three-Day Lockdown after a Single Case is Reported." Headline from The New York Times 5 days ago. I'm willing to believe this is fake news from the NYT, or that the situation has changed, but others are reporting it as well.