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These herd immunity thresholds assumed that vaccinated people do not transmit the virus, but it appears that they do. Vaccines seem to be very efficient at prev

by cm2187 5y ago

These herd immunity thresholds assumed that vaccinated people do not transmit the virus, but it appears that they do. Vaccines seem to be very efficient at preventing complications, which is great and good enough to neutralise this virus. But they don't seem to have made a dent into this summer's cases numbers. It doesn't look like vaccines will prevent the virus from circulating. Hospitalisation rates have been pretty much flat vs previous waves (there was no wave last summer).

hutzlibu 5y ago
"It doesn't look like vaccines will prevent the virus from circulating." Do you have some numbers? As far as I know, it indeed supresses the virus from circulating, it just doesn't stop it completely. Here in my area, which started early with broad vaccinations - the numbers are way down.
- cm2187 5y ago
  The size of the peak cases in countries that have high vaccination rate, vs previous peaks before vaccination. UK for instance: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
  - eloff 5y ago
    You are comparing different variants as if they are equal. That makes no sense. If you look at the data so far available it does seem to reduce incidence of infection.
  - riffraff 5y ago
    we know the new variants are more contagious than what we had last year, if the vaccines didn't limit growth we should see a steeper curve, I believe.
    - rajin444 5y ago
      How do you account for prior immunity as well as the "pool" of people that would show up as a case going down as well? Both those factors would result in a softer curve without any vaccination.
  - thom 5y ago
    Has the UK peaked?
- simonsarris 5y ago
  Israel also started early with broad vaccinations. Now compare latest waves in USA/GB/Israel: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~GBR~ISR https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor... For fun, add India, which has comparatively low vaccinations, where Delta began: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~GBR~ISR~IND https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
  - hutzlibu 5y ago
    Do you know about the quality of the data? I would suspect they match the big picture by now. But while I was looking into that, last at the beginning of the year - the quality was horrible. Even here in developed germany, it was hard to get meaningful numbers from different districts. I mean, there were lots and lots of data flying around, but most of it not solid or directly comparable in my understanding. And here india looks interesting, if true. That would speak for a sort of herd immunity?
    - simonsarris 5y ago
      I really don't know what to think about India. I add it only because its so weird how quickly Delta seemed to fizzle out there, and then everyone stopped talking about it. Lots of very strange cases like that in the data. I think most data is not really comparable across countries, only across time (and even then: discard data early on), because of different levels of data collection. So best only to compare the same country vs its own prev spikes. But this is esp true with India vs smaller countries, you may be able to compare Euro nations to each other more accurately, but would caution against interpreting small differences as meaningful.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- ekianjo 5y ago
  > As far as I know, it indeed supresses the virus from circulating, it just doesn't stop it completely. Nope, it does not. Check your facts again with the Delta variant.

by cm2187 5y ago

hutzlibu 5y ago

"It doesn't look like vaccines will prevent the virus from circulating." Do you have some numbers? As far as I know, it indeed supresses the virus from circulating, it just doesn't stop it completely. Here in my area, which started early with broad vaccinations - the numbers are way down.

cm2187 5y ago
The size of the peak cases in countries that have high vaccination rate, vs previous peaks before vaccination. UK for instance: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
- eloff 5y ago
  You are comparing different variants as if they are equal. That makes no sense. If you look at the data so far available it does seem to reduce incidence of infection.
- riffraff 5y ago
  we know the new variants are more contagious than what we had last year, if the vaccines didn't limit growth we should see a steeper curve, I believe.
  - rajin444 5y ago
    How do you account for prior immunity as well as the "pool" of people that would show up as a case going down as well? Both those factors would result in a softer curve without any vaccination.
- thom 5y ago
  Has the UK peaked?
simonsarris 5y ago
Israel also started early with broad vaccinations. Now compare latest waves in USA/GB/Israel: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~GBR~ISR https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor... For fun, add India, which has comparatively low vaccinations, where Delta began: https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~GBR~ISR~IND https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
- hutzlibu 5y ago
  Do you know about the quality of the data? I would suspect they match the big picture by now. But while I was looking into that, last at the beginning of the year - the quality was horrible. Even here in developed germany, it was hard to get meaningful numbers from different districts. I mean, there were lots and lots of data flying around, but most of it not solid or directly comparable in my understanding. And here india looks interesting, if true. That would speak for a sort of herd immunity?
  - simonsarris 5y ago
    I really don't know what to think about India. I add it only because its so weird how quickly Delta seemed to fizzle out there, and then everyone stopped talking about it. Lots of very strange cases like that in the data. I think most data is not really comparable across countries, only across time (and even then: discard data early on), because of different levels of data collection. So best only to compare the same country vs its own prev spikes. But this is esp true with India vs smaller countries, you may be able to compare Euro nations to each other more accurately, but would caution against interpreting small differences as meaningful.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
ekianjo 5y ago
> As far as I know, it indeed supresses the virus from circulating, it just doesn't stop it completely. Nope, it does not. Check your facts again with the Delta variant.