5 ms·

How do you know? HIV hasn't evolved to be any less deadly in the 40 years it has been around. Instead, there's most excellent treatment available and people hav

How do you know? HIV hasn't evolved to be any less deadly in the 40 years it has been around. Instead, there's most excellent treatment available and people have changed their behaviour.

oblio 5y ago
We'll probably do a bunch of these. Vaccines, treatment for the worst symptoms and potentially treatment against the virus itself. I think we're working on all these fronts. I wonder how much we'll change/have to change our behavior long term, for example 10 years from now. I'd imagine not much.
- HarryHirsch 5y ago
  I wonder how much we'll change/have to change our behavior long term, for example 10 years from now. I'd imagine not much. I'd say it's the exact opposite. It's known that immunity against coronaviruses isn't long-lasting (look at the Rev Jackson and his wife, both of whom were vaccinated early this year and are now in hospital) and that antiviral treatment needs to start early (does everyone really want to do a PCR test every other day so they can start antibody treatment early like Governor Abbot?) We'll have to start wearing masks indoor and stop being in crowded rooms until the virus is eradicated. Right now, with the population half vaccinated, we are setting ourselves up for a re-run of Marek's disease, this time in people.
  - oblio 5y ago
    What we should do and what we'll do will be very different. 5 years of reduced socialization will turn a large percentage of the population into nervous wrecks.
  - ilammy 5y ago
    > until the virus is eradicated But doesn't COVID have animal reservoirs? If it does, good luck vaccinating all the bats and monkeys of the world. Or what's the plan there? Wait until the virus has subsided “enough”, then... what exactly? Still be on guard 24/7/365/4, paranoidally testing each and every traveler, ready to quench a cluster formed around some volunteer returning from a distant part of the world?
    - HarryHirsch 5y ago
      Nonpharmaceutical interventions work pretty good. Plague is endemic in rodents in the Western US, there are actually a dozen human cases every year, but there aren't epidemics because we do rodent-proofing. Rabies has an animal reservoir, but we vaccinate our dogs. Honestly, I don't understand the appeal of the ostrich strategy. Vaccination rates in Florida and Illinois are similar but in Florida, where they pretend Covid doesn't exist, the only thing they get is overflowing hospitals.
      - ilammy 5y ago
        I'm more talking about some humans getting infected somewhere, then bringing it in from wherever they were, where precautions are lower than where you came from. The way I see it, the long-term route is treating COVID like, say, malaria. You would get your vaccine when you travel places. Doctors would know what to test for based on your symptoms. But still, the contagiousness here is radically different. By the time you get to see your doctor, you could have infected dozens of people. So the most effective strategy is still isolation and pervasive testing? IDK, I guess we will just have to sit there and see where we'll be with COVID in 5 years from now. Maybe the virus will really just get bored and go away (unlikely). If not, maybe people will get bored of being freaked out and more comfortable with the thought that electing a new government won't eradicate the virus but you can build more hospitals and keep getting your yearly COVID booster shots.
        erhk 5y ago
        Maybe if the chinese keep their same lockdown and close their border indefinitely, or maybe for new zealand this is the case but for countries in the EU and NA the cats out of the bag and it wont ever be eradicated. I dont know who told you eradication was still an option but it stopped being one in feburary of 2020 when nCov19 started commmunal spreading. This. Does not. Go. Away.
  - erhk 5y ago
    If we got every human being vaccinated with a 100% efficacious vaccine for all strains at the exact same time globally without pause then MAYBE eradication would be feasible. Eradication is a fever dream, did you bother to read the attached article?
RegBarclay 5y ago
HIV is a different family of viruses, so the comparison to the corona family of viruses doesn't apply.
- erhk 5y ago
  Excuse me?
manojlds 5y ago
HIV is what it is because of its type. If all viruses are like that we probably won't exist or would have evolved to fight it better.
argvargc 5y ago
And despite killing ten times as many people as COVID, these changes were achieved without destroying small businesses and jobs, plunging millions into poverty (and likely later starvation), gross human rights violations and police brutality, and reintroduction of segregation into previously free democratic societies. (Just like with all other communicable diseases of modern times.) Go us.
- SketchySeaBeast 5y ago
  > And despite killing ten times as many people as COVID That's an INCREDIBLY disingenuous comparison considering that COVID-19 has been with us for less than two years. And, though I object to your characterization of said measures, extreme measures weren't taken because you couldn't catch it just via proximity. Also important to point out one big similarity - denial of both was used to dehumanize swathes of the population who were especially vulnerable.
  - argvargc 5y ago
    Not really, at the rate death is declining overall COVID will almost certainly kill far fewer in the same timeframe. And given differences in policy, and differences in resistance to them have not resulted in any discernible difference in result (ie, it's wild mess that makes no sense and more typically returns results opposite to expectation), it largely appears this would have been the case had we not ruined everything over it.
    - SketchySeaBeast 5y ago
      > Not really, at the rate death is declining overall COVID will almost certainly kill far fewer in the same timeframe. Looking at Google's worldwide deaths I don't see much of a decline. Sure, it's down from a peak, but it's actually on the way back up. What data are you using for that assumption that deaths are on the decline? > And given differences in policy, and differences in resistance to them have not resulted in any discernible difference in result South Korea, with a population of 51.71 million, is currently sitting at just over 2,000 deaths. Do you believe it to be sheer chance that their deaths are so low when compared to America?
mrfox321 5y ago
HIV has evolved to be less deadly: https://www.pnas.org/content/111/50/E5393 https://www.pnas.org/content/111/50/E5393
- q1w2 5y ago
  ...and also, 40 years is not a long time for disease evolution. ...especially one like HIV which has a much lower transmission rate than a respiratory virus.

How do you know? HIV hasn't evolved to be any less deadly in the 40 years it has been around. Instead, there's most excellent treatment available and people have changed their behaviour.

oblio 5y ago

We'll probably do a bunch of these. Vaccines, treatment for the worst symptoms and potentially treatment against the virus itself. I think we're working on all these fronts. I wonder how much we'll change/have to change our behavior long term, for example 10 years from now. I'd imagine not much.

HarryHirsch 5y ago
I wonder how much we'll change/have to change our behavior long term, for example 10 years from now. I'd imagine not much. I'd say it's the exact opposite. It's known that immunity against coronaviruses isn't long-lasting (look at the Rev Jackson and his wife, both of whom were vaccinated early this year and are now in hospital) and that antiviral treatment needs to start early (does everyone really want to do a PCR test every other day so they can start antibody treatment early like Governor Abbot?) We'll have to start wearing masks indoor and stop being in crowded rooms until the virus is eradicated. Right now, with the population half vaccinated, we are setting ourselves up for a re-run of Marek's disease, this time in people.
- oblio 5y ago
  What we should do and what we'll do will be very different. 5 years of reduced socialization will turn a large percentage of the population into nervous wrecks.
- ilammy 5y ago
  > until the virus is eradicated But doesn't COVID have animal reservoirs? If it does, good luck vaccinating all the bats and monkeys of the world. Or what's the plan there? Wait until the virus has subsided “enough”, then... what exactly? Still be on guard 24/7/365/4, paranoidally testing each and every traveler, ready to quench a cluster formed around some volunteer returning from a distant part of the world?
  - HarryHirsch 5y ago
    Nonpharmaceutical interventions work pretty good. Plague is endemic in rodents in the Western US, there are actually a dozen human cases every year, but there aren't epidemics because we do rodent-proofing. Rabies has an animal reservoir, but we vaccinate our dogs. Honestly, I don't understand the appeal of the ostrich strategy. Vaccination rates in Florida and Illinois are similar but in Florida, where they pretend Covid doesn't exist, the only thing they get is overflowing hospitals.
    - ilammy 5y ago
      I'm more talking about some humans getting infected somewhere, then bringing it in from wherever they were, where precautions are lower than where you came from. The way I see it, the long-term route is treating COVID like, say, malaria. You would get your vaccine when you travel places. Doctors would know what to test for based on your symptoms. But still, the contagiousness here is radically different. By the time you get to see your doctor, you could have infected dozens of people. So the most effective strategy is still isolation and pervasive testing? IDK, I guess we will just have to sit there and see where we'll be with COVID in 5 years from now. Maybe the virus will really just get bored and go away (unlikely). If not, maybe people will get bored of being freaked out and more comfortable with the thought that electing a new government won't eradicate the virus but you can build more hospitals and keep getting your yearly COVID booster shots.
      - erhk 5y ago
        Maybe if the chinese keep their same lockdown and close their border indefinitely, or maybe for new zealand this is the case but for countries in the EU and NA the cats out of the bag and it wont ever be eradicated. I dont know who told you eradication was still an option but it stopped being one in feburary of 2020 when nCov19 started commmunal spreading. This. Does not. Go. Away.
- erhk 5y ago
  If we got every human being vaccinated with a 100% efficacious vaccine for all strains at the exact same time globally without pause then MAYBE eradication would be feasible. Eradication is a fever dream, did you bother to read the attached article?

RegBarclay 5y ago

HIV is a different family of viruses, so the comparison to the corona family of viruses doesn't apply.

erhk 5y ago
Excuse me?

manojlds 5y ago

HIV is what it is because of its type. If all viruses are like that we probably won't exist or would have evolved to fight it better.

argvargc 5y ago

And despite killing ten times as many people as COVID, these changes were achieved without destroying small businesses and jobs, plunging millions into poverty (and likely later starvation), gross human rights violations and police brutality, and reintroduction of segregation into previously free democratic societies. (Just like with all other communicable diseases of modern times.) Go us.

SketchySeaBeast 5y ago
> And despite killing ten times as many people as COVID That's an INCREDIBLY disingenuous comparison considering that COVID-19 has been with us for less than two years. And, though I object to your characterization of said measures, extreme measures weren't taken because you couldn't catch it just via proximity. Also important to point out one big similarity - denial of both was used to dehumanize swathes of the population who were especially vulnerable.
- argvargc 5y ago
  Not really, at the rate death is declining overall COVID will almost certainly kill far fewer in the same timeframe. And given differences in policy, and differences in resistance to them have not resulted in any discernible difference in result (ie, it's wild mess that makes no sense and more typically returns results opposite to expectation), it largely appears this would have been the case had we not ruined everything over it.
  - SketchySeaBeast 5y ago
    > Not really, at the rate death is declining overall COVID will almost certainly kill far fewer in the same timeframe. Looking at Google's worldwide deaths I don't see much of a decline. Sure, it's down from a peak, but it's actually on the way back up. What data are you using for that assumption that deaths are on the decline? > And given differences in policy, and differences in resistance to them have not resulted in any discernible difference in result South Korea, with a population of 51.71 million, is currently sitting at just over 2,000 deaths. Do you believe it to be sheer chance that their deaths are so low when compared to America?

mrfox321 5y ago

HIV has evolved to be less deadly: https://www.pnas.org/content/111/50/E5393 https://www.pnas.org/content/111/50/E5393

q1w2 5y ago
...and also, 40 years is not a long time for disease evolution. ...especially one like HIV which has a much lower transmission rate than a respiratory virus.