3 ms·

D. Never. Lockdowns are not effective against covid. Even Australia failed them now. I would a) increase hospital capacity, b) ensure better ventilation, c) pr

by NoPie 5y ago

D. Never. Lockdowns are not effective against covid. Even Australia failed them now. I would a) increase hospital capacity, b) ensure better ventilation, c) promote work from home, d) encourage people to meet more outdoors, e) start vaccine challenge studies to speed up vaccine development considerably.

stephenr 5y ago
I'm not in Australia at the moment (my parents and many friends are), but my understanding is that a decent % of infection cases are caused by people breaking curfews/"lockdowns" deliberately because of DILIGAF x YOLO mentalities.
- NoPie 5y ago
  HIV also would be non-existent if everybody stopped reusing needles when injecting drugs and used condoms with anal or vaginal sex. I think Afganistan has very low HIV prevalence. Gays and injectable drug users are thrown from rooftops and that largely solves the problem. In the same way lockdowns are not effective because complete compliance is not achievable for one reason or another. People will rebel and unless you are prepared to completely crush them Taliban style, it won't work.
  - stephenr 5y ago
    So first off - let's get some perspective here, because you keep saying "not effective". Australia has a population of 25M people. From 29M tests, they've found 44K cases. So that's 0.17% of the population (infected). This works out to 1,700 per million. There have been 981 deaths attributed to COVID19 - that's 2.2% of confirmed cases, or 0.004% of the population. This works out to 40 per million (of the population). There are currently 603 people hospitalised due to COVID19 - that's 0.002% of the population. This works out to 20 per million. And this is with quite limited vaccination rollout, due to a variety of factors. Lets compare that with the US, which has had a variety of measures in place. The US has a population of 331M people. From 511M tests, they've found 37M cases. So that's 11.18% of the population (infected). This works out to 111,800 per million. There have been 625,375 deaths attributed to COVID19 - that's 1.7% of confirmed cases, or 0.19% of the population. This works out to 1,900 per million (of the population). It's hard to find a specific number from CDC but it seems like a recent # for US current hospitalisations is 89K. So that's 0.026% of the population. This works out to 260 per million. So. Do you want to tell me again how "Lockdowns don't work" and "Even Australia failed them now"? Or would you prefer I collect the stats from Thailand (where I live currently) - we were doing amazingly well until last December. We made Australia's numbers, look high by comparison. Then, after some localised outbreaks, the government decided letting people roam the country unrestricted during a pandemic was fine. That was ~4 months ago. At the moment, Thailand's new cases per day, are about half of Australia's total cases over the last 18 months. But sure. Vastly reducing travel doesn't work at all to curb the spread of a highly infectious disease. Give me a fucking break. You can argue your "freedom" is more important - I won't agree with you, but at least your argument makes some sense from a certain view point. But right now you're just ignoring the facts and making up claims to suit your own narrative/goals. As for your whole Afghan/Gays/HIV side show: Last time I checked, there's no vaccine against HIV, but you also can't catch it just by being in close proximity to someone who is infected. Some places (and I thought this included the US but I don't actually know for sure) criminalise knowingly infecting someone with HIV. Would you prefer that approach? Anyway - the point is - there literally are multiple vaccines against COVID19, and the evidence supports that the vaccinated are at much lower risk of infection, and much lower risk of hospitalisation/death in the case they do get infected. Pretty much every country on earth that is both enforcing 'lock downs' and conducting vaccinations, have said that they intend to reduce the spread via curfews/lockdowns until a sufficient number (typically 70%) of the population are vaccinated. It's not going to go away just because people are vaccinated - but the rate and prevalence of spread will reduce greatly, and the rate of hospitalisation and death will reduce greatly. That's the whole point. Now your other point was, to "increase hospital capacity". How many hospitals/expansions that will be suitable for use both in summer and winter, do you suppose could have been built in the ~12 months from the start of the pandemic until vaccinations started rolling out? Or in the ~18 months until now?
    - NoPie 5y ago
      I can get HIV simply in my job, by accidentally jabbing myself with a needle that I used to vaccinate someone with HIV positive status. My pharmacy has a lot of heroin users (because we provide methadone service) therefore the risk is more than just theoretical. We have procedures to deal with that but getting HIV for my age is much worse than having covid. Even with medicines the side-effects will reduce life expectancy for about 10 years. Yes, I want HIV to disappear more than covid. I definitely don't support criminalizing of knowingly infecting someone with HIV. The reason why is that it will prevent people at risk to get tested before having sex (because ignorance is defence in this case). We don't want that. Somehow all your numbers are not impressive because I don't know anyone young who has died from covid. I know they exist but most deaths I could remotely link to covid are old people who were on the death bed already. It is much better to talk about QALY instead of deaths. I believe that lockdowns in Australia are more than just a nuisance. QALY lost in them could easily overweight any gains. But those gains are dubious. No proof that it was previous lockdowns that did anything substantial. See Japan, they did nothing comparable to Australia and yet had no serious spread either. About vaccines – delta variant makes herd immunity impossible. 70% is not a magic number anymore. Sorry, but Australian government dropped a ball with vaccines as well. I think they could afford to be so cheeky because they banned all protests. They are now like Communist party that doesn't need to listen to critique regardless how many mistakes they make. Main issue with hospitals is not lack of buildings. The main issue is trained personnel. You can teach enough of them in 1.5 years even from scratch. Somehow when Tegnell said covid is long term most people laughed at him. I agree with him because I studied public health, and my course project was about provision of healthcare in Afghanistan. I am not an expert in this field but at least I think I can evaluate some of the claims due to my background.
      - stephenr 5y ago
        .... I don't even know what point you're trying to make. You're trying to compare the risks of COVID which spreads via airborne transmission, with the risk of HIV from an accidental needle in a very specific workplace. Oh the numbers aren't impressive because you don't know anyone who has died from it? I don't know anyone who's died from HIV or Cancer but I can still recognise they're things I don't want. > Main issue with hospitals is not lack of buildings. No, it's the lack of beds. Guess where the beds usually go? In a fucking building.

by NoPie 5y ago

stephenr 5y ago

I'm not in Australia at the moment (my parents and many friends are), but my understanding is that a decent % of infection cases are caused by people breaking curfews/"lockdowns" deliberately because of DILIGAF x YOLO mentalities.

NoPie 5y ago
HIV also would be non-existent if everybody stopped reusing needles when injecting drugs and used condoms with anal or vaginal sex. I think Afganistan has very low HIV prevalence. Gays and injectable drug users are thrown from rooftops and that largely solves the problem. In the same way lockdowns are not effective because complete compliance is not achievable for one reason or another. People will rebel and unless you are prepared to completely crush them Taliban style, it won't work.
- stephenr 5y ago
  So first off - let's get some perspective here, because you keep saying "not effective". Australia has a population of 25M people. From 29M tests, they've found 44K cases. So that's 0.17% of the population (infected). This works out to 1,700 per million. There have been 981 deaths attributed to COVID19 - that's 2.2% of confirmed cases, or 0.004% of the population. This works out to 40 per million (of the population). There are currently 603 people hospitalised due to COVID19 - that's 0.002% of the population. This works out to 20 per million. And this is with quite limited vaccination rollout, due to a variety of factors. Lets compare that with the US, which has had a variety of measures in place. The US has a population of 331M people. From 511M tests, they've found 37M cases. So that's 11.18% of the population (infected). This works out to 111,800 per million. There have been 625,375 deaths attributed to COVID19 - that's 1.7% of confirmed cases, or 0.19% of the population. This works out to 1,900 per million (of the population). It's hard to find a specific number from CDC but it seems like a recent # for US current hospitalisations is 89K. So that's 0.026% of the population. This works out to 260 per million. So. Do you want to tell me again how "Lockdowns don't work" and "Even Australia failed them now"? Or would you prefer I collect the stats from Thailand (where I live currently) - we were doing amazingly well until last December. We made Australia's numbers, look high by comparison. Then, after some localised outbreaks, the government decided letting people roam the country unrestricted during a pandemic was fine. That was ~4 months ago. At the moment, Thailand's new cases per day, are about half of Australia's total cases over the last 18 months. But sure. Vastly reducing travel doesn't work at all to curb the spread of a highly infectious disease. Give me a fucking break. You can argue your "freedom" is more important - I won't agree with you, but at least your argument makes some sense from a certain view point. But right now you're just ignoring the facts and making up claims to suit your own narrative/goals. As for your whole Afghan/Gays/HIV side show: Last time I checked, there's no vaccine against HIV, but you also can't catch it just by being in close proximity to someone who is infected. Some places (and I thought this included the US but I don't actually know for sure) criminalise knowingly infecting someone with HIV. Would you prefer that approach? Anyway - the point is - there literally are multiple vaccines against COVID19, and the evidence supports that the vaccinated are at much lower risk of infection, and much lower risk of hospitalisation/death in the case they do get infected. Pretty much every country on earth that is both enforcing 'lock downs' and conducting vaccinations, have said that they intend to reduce the spread via curfews/lockdowns until a sufficient number (typically 70%) of the population are vaccinated. It's not going to go away just because people are vaccinated - but the rate and prevalence of spread will reduce greatly, and the rate of hospitalisation and death will reduce greatly. That's the whole point. Now your other point was, to "increase hospital capacity". How many hospitals/expansions that will be suitable for use both in summer and winter, do you suppose could have been built in the ~12 months from the start of the pandemic until vaccinations started rolling out? Or in the ~18 months until now?
  - NoPie 5y ago
    I can get HIV simply in my job, by accidentally jabbing myself with a needle that I used to vaccinate someone with HIV positive status. My pharmacy has a lot of heroin users (because we provide methadone service) therefore the risk is more than just theoretical. We have procedures to deal with that but getting HIV for my age is much worse than having covid. Even with medicines the side-effects will reduce life expectancy for about 10 years. Yes, I want HIV to disappear more than covid. I definitely don't support criminalizing of knowingly infecting someone with HIV. The reason why is that it will prevent people at risk to get tested before having sex (because ignorance is defence in this case). We don't want that. Somehow all your numbers are not impressive because I don't know anyone young who has died from covid. I know they exist but most deaths I could remotely link to covid are old people who were on the death bed already. It is much better to talk about QALY instead of deaths. I believe that lockdowns in Australia are more than just a nuisance. QALY lost in them could easily overweight any gains. But those gains are dubious. No proof that it was previous lockdowns that did anything substantial. See Japan, they did nothing comparable to Australia and yet had no serious spread either. About vaccines – delta variant makes herd immunity impossible. 70% is not a magic number anymore. Sorry, but Australian government dropped a ball with vaccines as well. I think they could afford to be so cheeky because they banned all protests. They are now like Communist party that doesn't need to listen to critique regardless how many mistakes they make. Main issue with hospitals is not lack of buildings. The main issue is trained personnel. You can teach enough of them in 1.5 years even from scratch. Somehow when Tegnell said covid is long term most people laughed at him. I agree with him because I studied public health, and my course project was about provision of healthcare in Afghanistan. I am not an expert in this field but at least I think I can evaluate some of the claims due to my background.
    - stephenr 5y ago
      .... I don't even know what point you're trying to make. You're trying to compare the risks of COVID which spreads via airborne transmission, with the risk of HIV from an accidental needle in a very specific workplace. Oh the numbers aren't impressive because you don't know anyone who has died from it? I don't know anyone who's died from HIV or Cancer but I can still recognise they're things I don't want. > Main issue with hospitals is not lack of buildings. No, it's the lack of beds. Guess where the beds usually go? In a fucking building.