4 ms·
Destroying TSMC fabs is in neither US nor PRC or Taiwan's interest, it's the only point of consensus and mexican standoff leverage between all parties that prev
by dirtyid 5y ago
Destroying TSMC fabs is in neither US nor PRC or Taiwan's interest, it's the only point of consensus and mexican standoff leverage between all parties that prevents a TW war from escalating too far. IMO US and PRC would rather bargain some sort of sharing agreement over TSMC even in event of military actions in exchange for not glassing TW than have everyone lose access to the fabs.
> imagine what it will be like to cut current supplies by another 40-50%
And despite everyone's aforementioned desire to preserve TSMC, ultimately this is still a trivial amount if you consider that the East Asian semi supply chain accounts for 75% of global IC share and is completely within PRC missile range if there was ever an expansive east Asian theatre over Taiwan. Losing TSMC in war over TW will set the world back 1-2 nodes and 10 years, losing regional fabs and supply chains (in SK or JP) in a broader war over TW will knock out decades worth of capex. Global semiconductor industry is a 500B market, trillions in terms of industries affected, most of which benefits the west. PRC has massively more leverage in semi mutually assured destruction, so much so that TSMC is ultimately expendable if PRC is ever forced to act upon TW, because losing TSMC doesn't even scratch the surface of semi disruption PRC can cause US/West, who again are disproportionate beneficiaries of current IC status quo.
- another_story 5y agoObviously no one wants to destroy the fabs, but realize they would be destroyed if it was evident that Taiwan would be taken. That is part of the Taiwan playbook. How would the PRC be forced to act on Taiwan?