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> In this case the neighbouring countries arent great comparators As someone living in a neighbouring country, this is bullshit. They are perfect comparators.

> In this case the neighbouring countries arent great comparators As someone living in a neighbouring country, this is bullshit. They are perfect comparators. Basically exactly the same. Sweden didn't lock down. Everyone else did. Ten times more people died in Sweden. End of story.

galaxyLogic 5y ago
Thank you for pointing that out: 10x. An order of magnitude difference in deaths. Plus, it just makes common-sense that if people cannot meet other people, that prevents the spread of the disease. No? That makes common sense, and then we see 10x difference in deaths. The Occam's razor explanation for the reason of 10x bigger death rate then is .. lack of lockdown! Anybody arguing otherwise seems suspect of political calculus, in my view.
- mikem170 5y ago
  That would make sense, except for the countries that did lock down and did worse. It would help a lot to have a satisfactory explanation for that, too. Geography by itself is not enough to eliminate the doubt sown by that contradiction.
  - thebruce87m 5y ago
    Timing. I sat in the UK for weeks looking at what was happening in Italy and wondering why we weren’t doing anything at all.
    - mikem170 5y ago
      Yeah, the lockdowns in the UK were interesting, particularly were they would announce them ahead of time, giving everyone time to travel and/or bar hop. I also thought it was interesting that the delta wave seemed to disappear in the UK without the benefit of lockdowns. The same in India. The same in India. I've been wondering if these waves of infections come and go without much regard for typical lockdown measures (outside of full-on communist China and New Zealand lockdowns, which may not be practical in most other places).
      - galaxyLogic 5y ago
        It's not over till it's over. "U.S. (Civid-19) deaths in the week ending Monday totaled 7,225. By comparison, about 5,400 Americans died in the Pearl Harbor and 9/11 attacks combined. " https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/delta-driven-surge-in-us-enters-deadlier-phase-and-who-s-dying-is-changing-latest-covid-19-updates/ar-AANFBtK?ocid=winp1taskbar&fbclid=IwAR1oKrmf6kJKIu5b8bTMugYbZLeYiUbC16U3JVOWM2VdLAoeaVVv9ImgEvY https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/delta-driven-surge-in-us-e...
      - thebruce87m 5y ago
        I’m not sure that it is disappearing - in Scotland today we have the highest number of recorded cases since the pandemic began. Schools just returned last week too so that won’t help.
        breakfastduck 5y ago
        The number of cases has never been less relevant than when the majority of the country has been vaccinated.
        thebruce87m 5y ago
        It’s relevant to people who haven’t been vaccinated yet. I’m 37 and I’m only just passed the 2 weeks cool-off of my second jab.
nickthemagicman 5y ago
Why limit the comparison to nordic countries? We don't limit comparison of Italy to Mediterranean countries, or England to British Isle countries. Sweden is a European country. On a European scale Sweden was right in the middle of the pack in deaths per capita.
- evgen 5y ago
  Limiting it to immediate neighbors leaves you with comparisons which have similar environment, socio-economic status, and culture/lifestyle. When doing statistical analysis you first try to control for as many potential confounding variables as possible. By limiting the comparisons to like vs like on many different variables you end up being able to make stronger claims about the consequences of active choices.
  - nickthemagicman 5y ago
    Sweden shares similar socio economic status and culture and lifestyle with other European countries I completely agree.
  - native_samples 5y ago
    This analysis doesn't limit it to immediate neighbours. If it was doing that it'd need to include the Baltic states too and when you do that Sweden goes back to being average. In reality this argument is a form of motivated reasoning. It boils down to, if you ignore all the countries that disprove the hypothesis behind lockdowns and take a tiny number that did better than Sweden, then search backwards for some justification as to why this cherry picking is legitimate, you get a 'neighbours hypothesis' that unfortunately has to ignore some of the neighbours. It's just rationalizing by people who cannot accept that lockdowns failed, because if they accepted that they'd have to accept that academic expertise in general has failed. And not only failed. Failed in ways that were destructive and damaging.
    - evgen 5y ago
      If you think that Poland, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania share the same socio-economic status, population distribution, and cultural/lifestyle factors as Sweden then I think you are the one who is engaging in motivated reasoning. The reason we keep looking at Sweden and comparing it to its neighbors is that they are a perfect example of the success of lockdowns in preventing high death rates at the start of Covid. Anyone who claims otherwise seems to be either delusional or deceptive.

galaxyLogic 5y ago

Thank you for pointing that out: 10x. An order of magnitude difference in deaths. Plus, it just makes common-sense that if people cannot meet other people, that prevents the spread of the disease. No? That makes common sense, and then we see 10x difference in deaths. The Occam's razor explanation for the reason of 10x bigger death rate then is .. lack of lockdown! Anybody arguing otherwise seems suspect of political calculus, in my view.

mikem170 5y ago
That would make sense, except for the countries that did lock down and did worse. It would help a lot to have a satisfactory explanation for that, too. Geography by itself is not enough to eliminate the doubt sown by that contradiction.
- thebruce87m 5y ago
  Timing. I sat in the UK for weeks looking at what was happening in Italy and wondering why we weren’t doing anything at all.
  - mikem170 5y ago
    Yeah, the lockdowns in the UK were interesting, particularly were they would announce them ahead of time, giving everyone time to travel and/or bar hop. I also thought it was interesting that the delta wave seemed to disappear in the UK without the benefit of lockdowns. The same in India. The same in India. I've been wondering if these waves of infections come and go without much regard for typical lockdown measures (outside of full-on communist China and New Zealand lockdowns, which may not be practical in most other places).
    - galaxyLogic 5y ago
      It's not over till it's over. "U.S. (Civid-19) deaths in the week ending Monday totaled 7,225. By comparison, about 5,400 Americans died in the Pearl Harbor and 9/11 attacks combined. " https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/delta-driven-surge-in-us-enters-deadlier-phase-and-who-s-dying-is-changing-latest-covid-19-updates/ar-AANFBtK?ocid=winp1taskbar&fbclid=IwAR1oKrmf6kJKIu5b8bTMugYbZLeYiUbC16U3JVOWM2VdLAoeaVVv9ImgEvY https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/delta-driven-surge-in-us-e...
    - thebruce87m 5y ago
      I’m not sure that it is disappearing - in Scotland today we have the highest number of recorded cases since the pandemic began. Schools just returned last week too so that won’t help.
      - breakfastduck 5y ago
        The number of cases has never been less relevant than when the majority of the country has been vaccinated.
        thebruce87m 5y ago
        It’s relevant to people who haven’t been vaccinated yet. I’m 37 and I’m only just passed the 2 weeks cool-off of my second jab.

nickthemagicman 5y ago

Why limit the comparison to nordic countries? We don't limit comparison of Italy to Mediterranean countries, or England to British Isle countries. Sweden is a European country. On a European scale Sweden was right in the middle of the pack in deaths per capita.

evgen 5y ago
Limiting it to immediate neighbors leaves you with comparisons which have similar environment, socio-economic status, and culture/lifestyle. When doing statistical analysis you first try to control for as many potential confounding variables as possible. By limiting the comparisons to like vs like on many different variables you end up being able to make stronger claims about the consequences of active choices.
- nickthemagicman 5y ago
  Sweden shares similar socio economic status and culture and lifestyle with other European countries I completely agree.
- native_samples 5y ago
  This analysis doesn't limit it to immediate neighbours. If it was doing that it'd need to include the Baltic states too and when you do that Sweden goes back to being average. In reality this argument is a form of motivated reasoning. It boils down to, if you ignore all the countries that disprove the hypothesis behind lockdowns and take a tiny number that did better than Sweden, then search backwards for some justification as to why this cherry picking is legitimate, you get a 'neighbours hypothesis' that unfortunately has to ignore some of the neighbours. It's just rationalizing by people who cannot accept that lockdowns failed, because if they accepted that they'd have to accept that academic expertise in general has failed. And not only failed. Failed in ways that were destructive and damaging.
  - evgen 5y ago
    If you think that Poland, Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania share the same socio-economic status, population distribution, and cultural/lifestyle factors as Sweden then I think you are the one who is engaging in motivated reasoning. The reason we keep looking at Sweden and comparing it to its neighbors is that they are a perfect example of the success of lockdowns in preventing high death rates at the start of Covid. Anyone who claims otherwise seems to be either delusional or deceptive.