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In this case the neighbouring countries arent great comparators. Population density has been mentioned elsewhere in the thread. Large swaths of the country is e

In this case the neighbouring countries arent great comparators. Population density has been mentioned elsewhere in the thread. Large swaths of the country is empty with the populace being very urbanised. Stockholm has a population density on par with London, and Oslo is about half of that. Also households look very different in Sweden compared to it's neighbours. The average household size is among the lowest in the world with a very high variability (in particular in poorer areas where large family groups live together and were also disproportionally hit by COVID). That probably had an outsize effect as to why Sweden managed as well as they did. Social distancing and personal space is also pretty much the norm in Sweden even during non-pandemic times. The Swedish CDC also says they believe they've fared worse than Norway and Denmark because the last few flu seasons were very mild in the country. Looking at the excess mortality numbers for the last few years that does indeed seem to at least explain some of the difference (although the claim has been disputed by their Norwegian counterpart). It's also notable that Sweden tends to do a little worse than their neighbours through every flu season when it comes to excess death. Maybe COVID also just exacerbated that effect somewhat? I think that the factors influencing COVID spread are so complex that it is impossible to disentangle how effective any political measures were in all but the most general terms. In the end I think it mostly came down to luck, where those countries that managed to avoid clusters and super spreader events or more infectious strands early on fared better.

yyyk 5y ago
>The Swedish CDC also says they believe they've fared worse than Norway and Denmark because the last few flu seasons were very mild in the country. It's called the 'dry tinder' hypothesis, and it isn't born out when researchers look at the data, e.g. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34213362/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34213362/
- eckesicle 5y ago
  Thanks!
user-the-name 5y ago
> In this case the neighbouring countries arent great comparators As someone living in a neighbouring country, this is bullshit. They are perfect comparators. Basically exactly the same. Sweden didn't lock down. Everyone else did. Ten times more people died in Sweden. End of story.
- galaxyLogic 5y ago
  Thank you for pointing that out: 10x. An order of magnitude difference in deaths. Plus, it just makes common-sense that if people cannot meet other people, that prevents the spread of the disease. No? That makes common sense, and then we see 10x difference in deaths. The Occam's razor explanation for the reason of 10x bigger death rate then is .. lack of lockdown! Anybody arguing otherwise seems suspect of political calculus, in my view.
  - mikem170 5y ago
    That would make sense, except for the countries that did lock down and did worse. It would help a lot to have a satisfactory explanation for that, too. Geography by itself is not enough to eliminate the doubt sown by that contradiction.
    - thebruce87m 5y ago
      Timing. I sat in the UK for weeks looking at what was happening in Italy and wondering why we weren’t doing anything at all.
      - mikem170 5y ago
        Yeah, the lockdowns in the UK were interesting, particularly were they would announce them ahead of time, giving everyone time to travel and/or bar hop. I also thought it was interesting that the delta wave seemed to disappear in the UK without the benefit of lockdowns. The same in India. The same in India. I've been wondering if these waves of infections come and go without much regard for typical lockdown measures (outside of full-on communist China and New Zealand lockdowns, which may not be practical in most other places).
deleted 5y ago
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eckesicle 5y ago
I have mostly changed my opinion on this matter after reading this blog post (linked elsewhere in the thread too) https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/lockdown-effectiveness-much-more https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/lockdown-effectiveness...

yyyk 5y ago

>The Swedish CDC also says they believe they've fared worse than Norway and Denmark because the last few flu seasons were very mild in the country. It's called the 'dry tinder' hypothesis, and it isn't born out when researchers look at the data, e.g. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34213362/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34213362/

eckesicle 5y ago
Thanks!

user-the-name 5y ago

> In this case the neighbouring countries arent great comparators As someone living in a neighbouring country, this is bullshit. They are perfect comparators. Basically exactly the same. Sweden didn't lock down. Everyone else did. Ten times more people died in Sweden. End of story.

galaxyLogic 5y ago
Thank you for pointing that out: 10x. An order of magnitude difference in deaths. Plus, it just makes common-sense that if people cannot meet other people, that prevents the spread of the disease. No? That makes common sense, and then we see 10x difference in deaths. The Occam's razor explanation for the reason of 10x bigger death rate then is .. lack of lockdown! Anybody arguing otherwise seems suspect of political calculus, in my view.
- mikem170 5y ago
  That would make sense, except for the countries that did lock down and did worse. It would help a lot to have a satisfactory explanation for that, too. Geography by itself is not enough to eliminate the doubt sown by that contradiction.
  - thebruce87m 5y ago
    Timing. I sat in the UK for weeks looking at what was happening in Italy and wondering why we weren’t doing anything at all.
    - mikem170 5y ago
      Yeah, the lockdowns in the UK were interesting, particularly were they would announce them ahead of time, giving everyone time to travel and/or bar hop. I also thought it was interesting that the delta wave seemed to disappear in the UK without the benefit of lockdowns. The same in India. The same in India. I've been wondering if these waves of infections come and go without much regard for typical lockdown measures (outside of full-on communist China and New Zealand lockdowns, which may not be practical in most other places).

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

eckesicle 5y ago

I have mostly changed my opinion on this matter after reading this blog post (linked elsewhere in the thread too) https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/lockdown-effectiveness-much-more https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/lockdown-effectiveness...