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> If I was gonna bet, my money would be on the lockdowns not doing anything. The virus did what it did no matter how hard humans tried to control it Tell that

> If I was gonna bet, my money would be on the lockdowns not doing anything. The virus did what it did no matter how hard humans tried to control it Tell that to New Zealand, who have had less than 3,000 cases in a population of 5 million. They did this with strict border controls (people on inbound flights must isolate for 2 weeks) and quick response to community transmission (several lockdowns totalling 40 days).

mavhc 5y ago
The UK made incoming people isolate in March....2021
tomohawk 5y ago
This is not what I think of by "it worked" https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/17/asia/new-zealand-lockdown-one-case-intl-hnk/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/17/asia/new-zealand-lockdown-one... At best, its a fragile, brittle, costly "solution" that may work in an isolated country like NZ until vaccines are available. It's been 8 months since vaccines have been available, and they're still in the low 20s in terms of people getting the vaccine.
- lancewiggs 5y ago
  New Zealander here. Yes we locked down over one case. The next day we had a few more, and then more and more and more (21 in each of the last two days). Delta is amazingly spreadable. Because we are locked down straight away, every case is easily contact traced, and people that did catch COVID are already isolated in their bubble, so cannot re-transmit easily behind that. As people are diagnosed they are taken to isolate in a hotel. So there will be an end, even though we were unluckily enough to have had a number of very large spreader events (conferences, churches, schools etc.). The oft-touted alternative from activists outside NZ is to vaccinate and open up. We are vaccinia go quickly, but that plan does not work. (NZ had no right/need to get vaccines early - we did not need them. We are now ramping up quickly, all to the plan.) But vaccines do not prevent transmission. Vaccines do not provide population immunity with Delta until a very large percentage (90%?) of all people, kids included, are vaccinated. Vaccines do not eliminate illness (including long COVID) and death. They do reduce it a lot, but many people will die, especially the vaccine hesitant. Meanwhile anti-vaxers spread disinformation, much as the similar or overlapping anti-lockdown crowd do. (Think about that) Vaccines are not available to kids, and some very vulnerable. It has been really amazing living essentially a normal live while most the rest of the world “lives with COVID”. We want that back.
  - areyousure 5y ago
    Will you get that back, or is New Zealand's quest for zero Covid lost?
    - Neeek 5y ago
      From our experience here in Queensland, it's definitely not lost. We managed to get on top of a delta outbreak that peaked at NZ's current daily cases with a week of lockdown less than a month ago.
      - areyousure 5y ago
        I mean, I'm pretty sure Australia has lost now.

mavhc 5y ago

The UK made incoming people isolate in March....2021

tomohawk 5y ago

This is not what I think of by "it worked" https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/17/asia/new-zealand-lockdown-one-case-intl-hnk/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/17/asia/new-zealand-lockdown-one... At best, its a fragile, brittle, costly "solution" that may work in an isolated country like NZ until vaccines are available. It's been 8 months since vaccines have been available, and they're still in the low 20s in terms of people getting the vaccine.

lancewiggs 5y ago
New Zealander here. Yes we locked down over one case. The next day we had a few more, and then more and more and more (21 in each of the last two days). Delta is amazingly spreadable. Because we are locked down straight away, every case is easily contact traced, and people that did catch COVID are already isolated in their bubble, so cannot re-transmit easily behind that. As people are diagnosed they are taken to isolate in a hotel. So there will be an end, even though we were unluckily enough to have had a number of very large spreader events (conferences, churches, schools etc.). The oft-touted alternative from activists outside NZ is to vaccinate and open up. We are vaccinia go quickly, but that plan does not work. (NZ had no right/need to get vaccines early - we did not need them. We are now ramping up quickly, all to the plan.) But vaccines do not prevent transmission. Vaccines do not provide population immunity with Delta until a very large percentage (90%?) of all people, kids included, are vaccinated. Vaccines do not eliminate illness (including long COVID) and death. They do reduce it a lot, but many people will die, especially the vaccine hesitant. Meanwhile anti-vaxers spread disinformation, much as the similar or overlapping anti-lockdown crowd do. (Think about that) Vaccines are not available to kids, and some very vulnerable. It has been really amazing living essentially a normal live while most the rest of the world “lives with COVID”. We want that back.
- areyousure 5y ago
  Will you get that back, or is New Zealand's quest for zero Covid lost?
  - Neeek 5y ago
    From our experience here in Queensland, it's definitely not lost. We managed to get on top of a delta outbreak that peaked at NZ's current daily cases with a week of lockdown less than a month ago.
    - areyousure 5y ago
      I mean, I'm pretty sure Australia has lost now.