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Can we stop calling everything an "fallacy" when you're just trying to say he's wrong? That aside what you're saying doesn't address the issue at all. Yo
by Dwelve 5y ago
Can we stop calling everything an "fallacy" when you're just trying to say he's wrong?
That aside what you're saying doesn't address the issue at all. You have a clear relation between two groups and an outcome and those relations clearly show that it was a bad choice to pretend we can lockdown until a miracle cure happens.
Let's put it this way, did you expect the outcome to be what it currently is? We have MORE deaths with Covid than we had at the same time last year. Is that what you would have predicted when the great results of the trials were published?
- Isinlor 5y agoI have track record of making predictions on Metaculus.com . And yeah, the new variants were a suprise. We were expecting sars-cov-2 to evolve slower than influenza. I think this will still hold. But from my experience with generic algorithms I also knew that evolution happens the quickest after some breakthrough, when the new solution is not yet optimal. The issue is that we don't know what optimum looks like for this virus. Besides that experts were also telling us that immunity from vaccine will likely fade.