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Sure, some degree of global warming is probably happening. The bigger point here is that the "end-of-the-world" global warming is never going to happen. That is
by farmerbrown 15y ago
Sure, some degree of global warming is probably happening. The bigger point here is that the "end-of-the-world" global warming is never going to happen. That is, the effect size of anthropogenic global warming is apparently small and does not match the original predictions put forth in the late 1980s. You can see the data (and complete lack of a rebuttal) here:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Hansen-1988-prediction-basic.htm http://www.skepticalscience.com/Hansen-1988-prediction-basic...
Note that the observed global temperature anomaly, in black, tracks Scenario C, a scenario that "assumed a rapid decline in greenhouse gas emissions around the year 2000." However, during the same period, atmospheric carbon dioxide increased by approximately 40 parts per million. [1]
So, where does that leave us? It leaves us with a climate sensitivity of 3°C for a DOUBLING of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Of course, this assumes the existence of positive feedbacks in the climate system. One such positive feedback might be a decrease in snowfall, something talked about in the early 2000s:
"According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become 'a very rare and exciting event'." [2]
Recently, though, the claims are now that "snow outside is what global warming looks like." [3]
Without positive feedbacks, the climate sensitivity is more like 1.2°C for a DOUBLING of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
[1] http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/#mlo_full http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/#mlo_full
[2] http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-j...
[3] http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/dec/20/uk-snow-global-warming http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/dec/20/uk-snow-...
- deleted 15y ago[deleted]
- brazzy 15y agoThe decrease of the arctic sea ice is a positive feedback that is definitely already happening: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/seaice.html http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/seaice.html