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What could "99% complete" even possibly mean? That it goes 99 miles/days/hours/minutes before hitting a tree?
by lisper 5y ago
What could "99% complete" even possibly mean? That it goes 99 miles/days/hours/minutes before hitting a tree?
- icedchai 5y agoI look at it this way: I haven't had a car accident in over 25 years of driving. Now if there was a 1% chance of having a car accident every time drove, I'd be having multiple accidents a year. This seems bad.
- TchoBeer 5y agoexcept 99% doesn't necessarily mean "every time you drive"; it's obvious to me that if you drive for 100 miles you are more likely to get into an accident than 10 miles. It's probably closer to "in 99% of situations".
- icedchai 5y agoThe reality is that long term trips may, in general, be safer since you're on highways. Some statistics show that short term trips are more likely to have accidents. See https://wtop.com/dc-transit/2020/09/study-25-percent-of-car-accidents-happen-in-first-3-minutes-of-driving/ https://wtop.com/dc-transit/2020/09/study-25-percent-of-car-...
- TchoBeer 5y agoIt doesn't necessarily have to scale linearly like that, but I assume 10 miles on the highway is safer than 100 miles on the highway.
- dheera 5y agoHumans are particularly bad at highway driving long distances because they get highway hypnosis or fall alseep. On local roads on the other hand humans tend to do a good job reasoning with situations.
- TchoBeer 5y agoIf this is true then why do 25% of car accidents happen in first 3 minutes of driving
- vntok 5y agoBecause manoeuvers are hard. And whatever the task a human takes, they need up to a few minutes to get "in the zone" and fully focused on it. This includes driving.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- kzrdude 5y agoHighways without intersections are very safe. Only on/off ramps. Mixing traffic directions and intersections are risk factors which mean that non-highways are more risky per kilometer.
- skinkestek 5y agoA steelman interpretation would for example be "works on 99% of north American roads" in which case preventing it from driving anywhere near known bad patches would get it complete enough.
- lisper 5y agoIn that case the problem would be 100% solved, not 99% with "the last 1% [being] the hardest."
- skinkestek 5y ago> In that case the problem would be 100% solved Not until you added the geofencing I wrote about :-) > with "the last 1% [being] the hardest." I might have misunderstood the context here, but my point was to make an example were the last percentage wasn't that hard.
- lisper 5y agoThe original headline of the article was: Waymo Is 99% of the Way to Self-Driving Cars. The Last 1% Is the Hardest
- xyzzy21 5y agoIt's clearly based on the HYPER-idealistic driving conditions of primarily high-angle sun with dreary-yet-predictable Phoenix "stroads". They picked a good first experiments location but it's NOT representative of more than 1% of roads on the planet! It's a bizarro-world of simplified challenge and problem space. Drop such a system into any real world driving and it will fall flat on its face very quickly and endanger both passengers, other drivers and pedestrians.