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"I think that there is a much better chance that PHEVs are the road to mass adoption than pure electric in the short term (ie. 10-15 years)." I think you are c

by rsync 5y ago

"I think that there is a much better chance that PHEVs are the road to mass adoption than pure electric in the short term (ie. 10-15 years)." I think you are correct - you just missed that the 10-15 years was 2010-2025. It has already happened. We are on the verge of a hockey stick of adoption of purely electric cars. The frustrating recalcitrance of incumbents (like Volvo and BMW) was their attempt to recoup billions in investments in the last 1-2 generations of vehicles - costs that had already been sunk. That is why after 10 years of concept cars and "e-initiatives" and weird tron-cars we finally have actual electric cars coming out of Audi/BMW/Volvo. They were just stalling...

tshaddox 5y ago
Is that the case? My impression is that PHEVs have been very rare in the last 10-15 years. Even now the selection seems very small. I’ve just started looking into them and it seem like the market is just barely getting up and running with some decent 2021-2022 models.
- stubish 5y ago
  It depends on the region. Local news in Australia is on how lack of incentives for electric vehicles means there are very few models available. The cars are there, just sold elsewhere where the market is. Crank up your emissions standards or carbon requirements and the cheaper electric cars appear, with the old petrol models dumped in the backwaters.
- WorldMaker 5y ago
  The market seems so small in 2021-2022 in fact because so many models have already been shut down. That to me is a strong indicator that the PHEV transition window is already closing and anyone thinking about it in 2022 is late to the party. GM has very explicitly stated that about the Volt, it's PHEV model that pretty much exactly met this transition window, starting in 2010 and being discontinued in 2019. GM concluded that the need for a transition vehicle was over and people were going to buy pure EVs moving forward. (Anecdotally, as a buyer that invested in a Volt in 2011, I feel the exact same way. The Volt was a wonderful choice for 2011 but in 2022 I see a lot fewer reasons you wouldn't just buy a full EV.)

by rsync 5y ago

tshaddox 5y ago

Is that the case? My impression is that PHEVs have been very rare in the last 10-15 years. Even now the selection seems very small. I’ve just started looking into them and it seem like the market is just barely getting up and running with some decent 2021-2022 models.

stubish 5y ago
It depends on the region. Local news in Australia is on how lack of incentives for electric vehicles means there are very few models available. The cars are there, just sold elsewhere where the market is. Crank up your emissions standards or carbon requirements and the cheaper electric cars appear, with the old petrol models dumped in the backwaters.
WorldMaker 5y ago
The market seems so small in 2021-2022 in fact because so many models have already been shut down. That to me is a strong indicator that the PHEV transition window is already closing and anyone thinking about it in 2022 is late to the party. GM has very explicitly stated that about the Volt, it's PHEV model that pretty much exactly met this transition window, starting in 2010 and being discontinued in 2019. GM concluded that the need for a transition vehicle was over and people were going to buy pure EVs moving forward. (Anecdotally, as a buyer that invested in a Volt in 2011, I feel the exact same way. The Volt was a wonderful choice for 2011 but in 2022 I see a lot fewer reasons you wouldn't just buy a full EV.)