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Wouldn't polymarket be subject to incomplete information? Thus leading to bias. Polymarket would just reflect the market sentiment given a fairly robust analysi
by ImaCake 5y ago
Wouldn't polymarket be subject to incomplete information? Thus leading to bias. Polymarket would just reflect the market sentiment given a fairly robust analysis of the available information, admittedly a pretty useful idea.
The other issue is that a very niche bet/topic might only have a small sample of analysts placing bets. This would mean you are subject to increased risk of bias from a single bad analyst. Or simply large variance due to small sample size.