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I love polymarket. Prediction markets on topics like this are about the only way to discern truth from afar.
by elevenoh 5y ago
I love polymarket. Prediction markets on topics like this are about the only way to discern truth from afar.
- ImaCake 5y agoWouldn't polymarket be subject to incomplete information? Thus leading to bias. Polymarket would just reflect the market sentiment given a fairly robust analysis of the available information, admittedly a pretty useful idea. The other issue is that a very niche bet/topic might only have a small sample of analysts placing bets. This would mean you are subject to increased risk of bias from a single bad analyst. Or simply large variance due to small sample size.