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No, the reason is that Japan is working on a nation-wide hydrogen strategy with hydrogen produced in high-temperature gas-cooled reactors. > https://www.meti.g

No, the reason is that Japan is working on a nation-wide hydrogen strategy with hydrogen produced in high-temperature gas-cooled reactors. > https://www.meti.go.jp/english/policy/energy_environment/global_warming/roadmap/innovation/thep.html https://www.meti.go.jp/english/policy/energy_environment/glo... > https://www.jaea.go.jp/04/o-arai/en/research/research_03.html https://www.jaea.go.jp/04/o-arai/en/research/research_03.htm... Switching dozens of millions cars to battery-electric drive trains is not a viable strategy, especially for the logistics sector. Germany produces 1.6 TWh of electricity per day. Charging 50 million electric cars with a 50-kWh-battery would require 2.5 TWh of electricity. Even if you just charge 1/4 of those cars, you’d still 0,625 TWh, so almost 50% of what Germany produces in a single day. Germany has around 47 million passenger cars according to the national vehicle agency (KBA). Battery-electric cars are simply no viable solution to get dozens of million cars have emission-free. Let alone the ridiculous ranges of these BEVs. A regular Opel Astra Diesel achieves with 1000 km range with a single tank-fill while even the best BEVs will only achieve 400 km on average. A Diesel can be refilled in 5 minutes, a BEV takes at least 30 to 60 minutes, in many cases even longer due to the lack of sufficient high-current power chargers. BEVs are simply a step backwards in both comfort abd usability. That’s why they’re no serious alternative and Japan’s hydrogen approach is much more promising. Especially with passenger trains already running on hydrogen and German company Deutz just having introduced a high-power hydrogen engine.

_ph_ 5y ago
I don't know where your calculation went wrong, but it is wrong. It is very easy to calculate how much electricity electric cars would use, as the distance driven is precisely recorded. For the 45 million cars you have an average annual driving distance of less than 15.000km and at 20kWh/100km you get 135 TWh. That is about 20% more electricity production in Germany. Actually it will be much less, as gasoline and diesel fuel production and distribution uses a lot of electric energy too. The German grid could provide that amount of power today, and its at least 20 years till we have so many electric cars, plenty of time to add that capacity renewable. The biggest comfort advantage of BEV for the common user is, to rarely have to recharge on the road. If you plug in your BEV into a plain wall socket even every night, you start with a full charge every morning, removing the need to do on the road so in most cases. The Ioniq 5 already advertises recharge times in 18 minutes, so choose that one, if recharging on the road is common for you, or just buy a Tesla, which are pretty close to that and have the best charging network. If you want to have "green" hydrogen, you have to use 2-3x as much electricity and for the average consumer, hydrogen cars are clearly a step backwards towards BEV.
- ErikVandeWater 5y ago
  Actually it will be much less, as gasoline and diesel fuel production and distribution uses a lot of electric energy too. Could you explain this part? I'm surprised the production of hydrocarbon would use electrical energy.
  - _ph_ 5y ago
    Well, the basic hydrocarbons come from the ground in the form of crude oil. But that has to be pumped out of the ground, into the tankers or through the pipelines. That alone adds a significant amount of electricity consumed. Then the refining process. That uses a lot of energy. A large part of that comes from burning even more oil, so the environment impact is huge. But it wouldn't appear on the electricity bill indeed. But still, the refineries eat up a lot of electricity too. All the pumping required, the big destillation facilities might be heated by burning oil, but the control and the operation is electric. And then the gasoline is pumped around even more. Until it is pumped into your car. All of this uses electricity. Finally, even the gas stations themselves use a lot of electricity as for illumination. I can't name precise numbers - my calculation was really only the worst case szenario. Some calculations claim, going fully electric with cars would only add about 10% to the electricity consumption for all the electricity saved in the fuel supply.
ChemSpider 5y ago
Your home-made calculation assumes everyone(!) drives 300-400 miles per day. If you use real usage numbers you get only an 8 percent increase over current energy demand. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/electric-power-and-natural-gas/our-insights/the-impact-of-electromobility-on-the-german-electric-grid https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/electric-power-and-natur... > Especially with passenger trains already running on hydrogen Passenger trains, trucks and ships are a different story.
- SECProto 5y ago
  > Passenger trains, trucks and ships are a different story. In some countries, sure. But most rail in Japan is already electrified - 70% of the system [1]. The remainder would be low ridership routes, many of which the rail companies want to close - but if they don't, perhaps partially battery operated trains would be feasible - charge at every stop and at intermediate locations as needed. Additionally, trucking routes in Japan are much shorter and slower than North America, making BEV trucks more feasible. Ships I agree with you, hydrogen is likely best way forward [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_transport_in_Japan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_transport_in_Japan
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
pharmakom 5y ago
If most people drive 20-40 mins to work then the same back each day then they are well within the range limits and can charge every night at home. They never have to visit a gas station. That’s actually much more usable. You shouldn’t drive more than the range of a modern high capacity electric car in one go anyway; it’s simply unsafe. Tesla and other fast chargers take 15 mins and more are being built all the time.
- tjr225 5y ago
  > You shouldn’t drive more than the range of a modern high capacity electric car in one go anyway; it’s simply unsafe. UHhhhhhh what? Have you never done a 10 hour drive split up with your spouse before? Just FYI, its not particularly unsafe and it happens all the time.
  - ku-man 5y ago
    Perhaps the OP live in Belgium. In Canada and the US 10 hours drive is an everyday thing.
  - matthewdgreen 5y ago
    I drove 470 miles yesterday in a Tesla with two ~30 min charging stops. Honestly didn’t feel great and I wouldn’t recommend it —- but the stops really helped.
  - pharmakom 5y ago
    Tiredness delays reaction times more than being over the drink drive limit. Not having bathrooms breaks can lead to bladder infections etc. Stopping for a 30min break on a long drive is just sensible imo.
jagger27 5y ago
> BEVs are simply a step backwards in both comfort abd usability. Comfort? Really? Quiet inside and out, no vibrations, no exhaust fumes, no transmission tunnels for extra leg room, pre-heating or cooling when plugged in at home…
epistasis 5y ago
> Charging 50 million electric cars with a 50-kWh-battery would require 2.5 TWh of electricity. I find much to disagree with in your comment, but this is the most clearly wrong part. Nobody fills up their gas tank every single day, and with a 50 kWh battery nobody is charging it fully everyday.
pcl 5y ago
> A Diesel can be refilled in 5 minutes, a BEV takes at least 30 to 60 minutes Electric vehicles can be charged at home and at the office, thus eliminating most refueling stops. IMO this is a fantastic feature. I don’t own a car currently, but in my previous (gas) car, I always dreaded that refueling stop and would typically put it off until the car was running on empty. The ability to fuel my car while it is parked is a significant benefit in my book, and certainly outweighs the road trip hassle of slower charges.
tapoxi 5y ago
I just bought my first BEV, a VW ID4. It’s a much more comfortable car with a far superior feel when driving then any of the ICE vehicles I’ve owned. With the range it has I never need to worry about charging it unless we go on a road trip. My wife and I are planning a road trip though, from Boston to Bar Harbor, Maine. After looking up the route on PlugShare I need to make one stop at a fast charger (about 30 minutes) somewhere along I-95. Hardly a big deal.
tenfourwookie 5y ago
If this 665 Tw figure is a yearly estimate, they project 1.8 Tw/day for 2030. That figure includes EV. https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/german-2030-power-use-forecast-due-heat-pumps-e-cars-and-hydrogen https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/german-2030-power-use-f...

_ph_ 5y ago

I don't know where your calculation went wrong, but it is wrong. It is very easy to calculate how much electricity electric cars would use, as the distance driven is precisely recorded. For the 45 million cars you have an average annual driving distance of less than 15.000km and at 20kWh/100km you get 135 TWh. That is about 20% more electricity production in Germany. Actually it will be much less, as gasoline and diesel fuel production and distribution uses a lot of electric energy too. The German grid could provide that amount of power today, and its at least 20 years till we have so many electric cars, plenty of time to add that capacity renewable. The biggest comfort advantage of BEV for the common user is, to rarely have to recharge on the road. If you plug in your BEV into a plain wall socket even every night, you start with a full charge every morning, removing the need to do on the road so in most cases. The Ioniq 5 already advertises recharge times in 18 minutes, so choose that one, if recharging on the road is common for you, or just buy a Tesla, which are pretty close to that and have the best charging network. If you want to have "green" hydrogen, you have to use 2-3x as much electricity and for the average consumer, hydrogen cars are clearly a step backwards towards BEV.

ErikVandeWater 5y ago
Actually it will be much less, as gasoline and diesel fuel production and distribution uses a lot of electric energy too. Could you explain this part? I'm surprised the production of hydrocarbon would use electrical energy.
- _ph_ 5y ago
  Well, the basic hydrocarbons come from the ground in the form of crude oil. But that has to be pumped out of the ground, into the tankers or through the pipelines. That alone adds a significant amount of electricity consumed. Then the refining process. That uses a lot of energy. A large part of that comes from burning even more oil, so the environment impact is huge. But it wouldn't appear on the electricity bill indeed. But still, the refineries eat up a lot of electricity too. All the pumping required, the big destillation facilities might be heated by burning oil, but the control and the operation is electric. And then the gasoline is pumped around even more. Until it is pumped into your car. All of this uses electricity. Finally, even the gas stations themselves use a lot of electricity as for illumination. I can't name precise numbers - my calculation was really only the worst case szenario. Some calculations claim, going fully electric with cars would only add about 10% to the electricity consumption for all the electricity saved in the fuel supply.

ChemSpider 5y ago

Your home-made calculation assumes everyone(!) drives 300-400 miles per day. If you use real usage numbers you get only an 8 percent increase over current energy demand. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/electric-power-and-natural-gas/our-insights/the-impact-of-electromobility-on-the-german-electric-grid https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/electric-power-and-natur... > Especially with passenger trains already running on hydrogen Passenger trains, trucks and ships are a different story.

SECProto 5y ago
> Passenger trains, trucks and ships are a different story. In some countries, sure. But most rail in Japan is already electrified - 70% of the system [1]. The remainder would be low ridership routes, many of which the rail companies want to close - but if they don't, perhaps partially battery operated trains would be feasible - charge at every stop and at intermediate locations as needed. Additionally, trucking routes in Japan are much shorter and slower than North America, making BEV trucks more feasible. Ships I agree with you, hydrogen is likely best way forward [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_transport_in_Japan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_transport_in_Japan

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

pharmakom 5y ago

If most people drive 20-40 mins to work then the same back each day then they are well within the range limits and can charge every night at home. They never have to visit a gas station. That’s actually much more usable. You shouldn’t drive more than the range of a modern high capacity electric car in one go anyway; it’s simply unsafe. Tesla and other fast chargers take 15 mins and more are being built all the time.

tjr225 5y ago
> You shouldn’t drive more than the range of a modern high capacity electric car in one go anyway; it’s simply unsafe. UHhhhhhh what? Have you never done a 10 hour drive split up with your spouse before? Just FYI, its not particularly unsafe and it happens all the time.
- ku-man 5y ago
  Perhaps the OP live in Belgium. In Canada and the US 10 hours drive is an everyday thing.
- matthewdgreen 5y ago
  I drove 470 miles yesterday in a Tesla with two ~30 min charging stops. Honestly didn’t feel great and I wouldn’t recommend it —- but the stops really helped.
- pharmakom 5y ago
  Tiredness delays reaction times more than being over the drink drive limit. Not having bathrooms breaks can lead to bladder infections etc. Stopping for a 30min break on a long drive is just sensible imo.

jagger27 5y ago

> BEVs are simply a step backwards in both comfort abd usability. Comfort? Really? Quiet inside and out, no vibrations, no exhaust fumes, no transmission tunnels for extra leg room, pre-heating or cooling when plugged in at home…

epistasis 5y ago

> Charging 50 million electric cars with a 50-kWh-battery would require 2.5 TWh of electricity. I find much to disagree with in your comment, but this is the most clearly wrong part. Nobody fills up their gas tank every single day, and with a 50 kWh battery nobody is charging it fully everyday.

pcl 5y ago

> A Diesel can be refilled in 5 minutes, a BEV takes at least 30 to 60 minutes Electric vehicles can be charged at home and at the office, thus eliminating most refueling stops. IMO this is a fantastic feature. I don’t own a car currently, but in my previous (gas) car, I always dreaded that refueling stop and would typically put it off until the car was running on empty. The ability to fuel my car while it is parked is a significant benefit in my book, and certainly outweighs the road trip hassle of slower charges.

tapoxi 5y ago

I just bought my first BEV, a VW ID4. It’s a much more comfortable car with a far superior feel when driving then any of the ICE vehicles I’ve owned. With the range it has I never need to worry about charging it unless we go on a road trip. My wife and I are planning a road trip though, from Boston to Bar Harbor, Maine. After looking up the route on PlugShare I need to make one stop at a fast charger (about 30 minutes) somewhere along I-95. Hardly a big deal.

tenfourwookie 5y ago

If this 665 Tw figure is a yearly estimate, they project 1.8 Tw/day for 2030. That figure includes EV. https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/german-2030-power-use-forecast-due-heat-pumps-e-cars-and-hydrogen https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/german-2030-power-use-f...