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I'm afraid I do not follow... 1. 21.2% of the population (unvaccinated people older than 12) make up 40% of the hospitalizations. It's even more stark when you
by linuxhansl 5y ago
I'm afraid I do not follow...
1. 21.2% of the population (unvaccinated people older than 12) make up 40% of the hospitalizations. It's even more stark when you remove the immune compromised from the statistic.
2. For the delta-variant we need a higher vaccination rate to reach herd immunity. Estimates vary, but most put this around 85%.
3. While vaccinated people still can get sick (and why won't they, the immune system can only start to act after encountering the pathogen), but... the time of being infectious is lower and (see above) hospitalization and death rates are much lower.
Upon (very basic) scrutiny the numbers from Israel point to the high efficiency of the vaccines not the opposite.
And last, what would have us do instead?
- ekianjo 5y ago> 2. For the delta-variant we need a higher vaccination rate to reach herd immunity. Estimates vary, but most put this around 85%. That's not how herd immunity works. You don't set a moving goalpost out of nowhere. We should be measuring R instead, and I suspect R is hardly impacted by vaccines at least for the Delta variant.
- linuxhansl 5y agoR0 is for the delta variant is 6 - 7, ergo herd immunity (1-1/R0) is 0.833 - 0.857. So, yes, it kinda works like that.
- ekianjo 5y agoExcept that vaccinations dont stop the transmission.
- woofie11 5y agoYeah. The math is wonky. Vaccinations reduce transmission by about 50%. They don't reach herd immunity even at 100% vaccination, but they do help. Vaccinations + N95 masks + modest social distancing likely would do it. But we'll probably do vaccinations, wait for more aggressive mutations, add facemasks, wait for more aggressive mutations, and so on, until we have a super-virus.