5 ms·

i'm amazed at the number of people still believing high vaccination rates will get us rid of the covid, despite all the evidences of the previous year pointing

by bsaul 5y ago

i'm amazed at the number of people still believing high vaccination rates will get us rid of the covid, despite all the evidences of the previous year pointing in the opposite directions (people getting infected multiple times in a short period, variants mutating the spike protein a lot, and more recently vaccinated people still proven to be both carrier and transmitter of the virus). The final nail in the coffin being country-sized experiments like israel, showing no sign of any kind of victory over the epidemic. What surprise me most is the slow rate at which government adjust their strategy.. As an example, my country (france) still is deep in its "vaccine pass" controversial measure, splitting the country in half, and the government seems to show no sign of hesitation or even doubts whether it really is the best thing to do... They're running this strategy based on 6-months old assertions, and half the population doesn't seem to notice it.

creato 5y ago
> That means only 58% of Israel's total citizenry is fully vaccinated. Experts say that's not nearly high enough. 58% isn't that much higher than most other countries. France actually has a higher vaccination rate at 61%! So I'm not sure what you think the "country-sized experiment" is.
- bsaul 5y ago
  that's a very different take on the situation than what israel experts were saying just a few months ago. They reopened everything thanking the vaccine for that, and being happy of being the first country to heavily bet on mass vaccination. (note that the country is closed to people who don't have a pass, and people have to quarantine when they arrive). It looks a bit like they're changing the narrative now that the next wave is coming, saying vaccination rates aren't high enough after all (i'm curious to see one expert provide a definitive number on the "good enough" threshold, based on models or anything else, but maybe 100% it is ?)
  - pseudalopex 5y ago
    I don't know who Israel experts means. But public health experts in different countries said we wouldn't know until people got vaccinated. Some estimated it could be up to 90% of the population. Governments set lower targets like 70% of adults. But the government targets weren't herd immunity estimates.
polote 5y ago
Green pass in France is not a health measure but a politics one. They will stop it if they think thats going to prevent macron be re elected and keep it if it will help him be reelected. There are not one valid health reason to let people not wear a mask if they are vaccinated (if you believe mask works as the governement thinks)
djtriptych 5y ago
???? Isreal's data proves that the vaccine helps reduce serious disease related to coronavirus infection.
- bsaul 5y ago
  sure, i'm not talking about preventing vulnerable people from getting a serious case. This part seems to be working just fine, even in france. Hospitals aren't saturated anymore (except in some islands were people didn't vaccinate themselves for various reasons). It seems to me that life could already be "back to normal" here, simply making sure old / obese people get regular shots. It's the long-term strategy of wanting to get everyone a vaccine, including children who have close to 0 risks, in the hope of getting rid of the virus that i'm talking about.
linuxhansl 5y ago
I'm afraid I do not follow... 1. 21.2% of the population (unvaccinated people older than 12) make up 40% of the hospitalizations. It's even more stark when you remove the immune compromised from the statistic. 2. For the delta-variant we need a higher vaccination rate to reach herd immunity. Estimates vary, but most put this around 85%. 3. While vaccinated people still can get sick (and why won't they, the immune system can only start to act after encountering the pathogen), but... the time of being infectious is lower and (see above) hospitalization and death rates are much lower. Upon (very basic) scrutiny the numbers from Israel point to the high efficiency of the vaccines not the opposite. And last, what would have us do instead?
- ekianjo 5y ago
  > 2. For the delta-variant we need a higher vaccination rate to reach herd immunity. Estimates vary, but most put this around 85%. That's not how herd immunity works. You don't set a moving goalpost out of nowhere. We should be measuring R instead, and I suspect R is hardly impacted by vaccines at least for the Delta variant.
  - linuxhansl 5y ago
    R0 is for the delta variant is 6 - 7, ergo herd immunity (1-1/R0) is 0.833 - 0.857. So, yes, it kinda works like that.
    - ekianjo 5y ago
      Except that vaccinations dont stop the transmission.
      - woofie11 5y ago
        Yeah. The math is wonky. Vaccinations reduce transmission by about 50%. They don't reach herd immunity even at 100% vaccination, but they do help. Vaccinations + N95 masks + modest social distancing likely would do it. But we'll probably do vaccinations, wait for more aggressive mutations, add facemasks, wait for more aggressive mutations, and so on, until we have a super-virus.

by bsaul 5y ago

creato 5y ago

> That means only 58% of Israel's total citizenry is fully vaccinated. Experts say that's not nearly high enough. 58% isn't that much higher than most other countries. France actually has a higher vaccination rate at 61%! So I'm not sure what you think the "country-sized experiment" is.

bsaul 5y ago
that's a very different take on the situation than what israel experts were saying just a few months ago. They reopened everything thanking the vaccine for that, and being happy of being the first country to heavily bet on mass vaccination. (note that the country is closed to people who don't have a pass, and people have to quarantine when they arrive). It looks a bit like they're changing the narrative now that the next wave is coming, saying vaccination rates aren't high enough after all (i'm curious to see one expert provide a definitive number on the "good enough" threshold, based on models or anything else, but maybe 100% it is ?)
- pseudalopex 5y ago
  I don't know who Israel experts means. But public health experts in different countries said we wouldn't know until people got vaccinated. Some estimated it could be up to 90% of the population. Governments set lower targets like 70% of adults. But the government targets weren't herd immunity estimates.

polote 5y ago

Green pass in France is not a health measure but a politics one. They will stop it if they think thats going to prevent macron be re elected and keep it if it will help him be reelected. There are not one valid health reason to let people not wear a mask if they are vaccinated (if you believe mask works as the governement thinks)

djtriptych 5y ago

???? Isreal's data proves that the vaccine helps reduce serious disease related to coronavirus infection.

bsaul 5y ago
sure, i'm not talking about preventing vulnerable people from getting a serious case. This part seems to be working just fine, even in france. Hospitals aren't saturated anymore (except in some islands were people didn't vaccinate themselves for various reasons). It seems to me that life could already be "back to normal" here, simply making sure old / obese people get regular shots. It's the long-term strategy of wanting to get everyone a vaccine, including children who have close to 0 risks, in the hope of getting rid of the virus that i'm talking about.

linuxhansl 5y ago

I'm afraid I do not follow... 1. 21.2% of the population (unvaccinated people older than 12) make up 40% of the hospitalizations. It's even more stark when you remove the immune compromised from the statistic. 2. For the delta-variant we need a higher vaccination rate to reach herd immunity. Estimates vary, but most put this around 85%. 3. While vaccinated people still can get sick (and why won't they, the immune system can only start to act after encountering the pathogen), but... the time of being infectious is lower and (see above) hospitalization and death rates are much lower. Upon (very basic) scrutiny the numbers from Israel point to the high efficiency of the vaccines not the opposite. And last, what would have us do instead?

ekianjo 5y ago
> 2. For the delta-variant we need a higher vaccination rate to reach herd immunity. Estimates vary, but most put this around 85%. That's not how herd immunity works. You don't set a moving goalpost out of nowhere. We should be measuring R instead, and I suspect R is hardly impacted by vaccines at least for the Delta variant.
- linuxhansl 5y ago
  R0 is for the delta variant is 6 - 7, ergo herd immunity (1-1/R0) is 0.833 - 0.857. So, yes, it kinda works like that.
  - ekianjo 5y ago
    Except that vaccinations dont stop the transmission.
    - woofie11 5y ago
      Yeah. The math is wonky. Vaccinations reduce transmission by about 50%. They don't reach herd immunity even at 100% vaccination, but they do help. Vaccinations + N95 masks + modest social distancing likely would do it. But we'll probably do vaccinations, wait for more aggressive mutations, add facemasks, wait for more aggressive mutations, and so on, until we have a super-virus.