Vaccinated people are already regularly getting infected, so it isn't quite that simple. With Covid, many of the vaccines target a highly functional portion of

Vaccinated people are already regularly getting infected, so it isn't quite that simple. With Covid, many of the vaccines target a highly functional portion of the virus for the induced immunity. This means that mutations that make the vaccine induced antibodies less effective are at least somewhat likely to alter the function of the virus. My understanding is that we aren't really able to analytically determine the possibility space.