3 ms·

It fails to mention china’s debt to gdp (much worse than the us) or demographic issues (aging population).

redis_mlc 5y ago
- China imports up to half of its food. Since Xi is a clone of Mao, he doesn't care if half the population dies of a famine, but there is a high risk of civil unrest over food. - China is totally reliant on fast chips from external vendors. All of their local high-end fab programs have failed, with around $30 billion just disappearing. - China uses forced organ harvesting (mainly Uighur) to pay for its national hospital system. This is corrosive for foreign relationships long-term, with Europe becoming aware of this. - China risks war with all of their neighbors after seizing the Himalayan headwaters. Since half of those countries are Muslim, combined with the above item, this get could ugly (go nuclear.) - China stopped capital repatriation around 2016, so there's huge financial risk in building or operating factories there since profits cannot be withdrawn. Ths risk today is 100% in fact - you can't get your money out for sales in the China market. In addition, China is copying car designs, etc. and selling into the Russian market, making mfgs. like Volkswagen re-think their China strategy. - China relies on a US Marxist government to turn a blind eye to the above. Another Republican or Trumpist government will destroy China with just Trump/Pompeo's 2020 policies, let alone a total ban from US capital markets. - In a war, a lot of the one-child policy males would die. Since those men are needed to support their parents in retirement, there would be a huge backlash against the govt. (The reason for all the naval exercises reported in the press is that the CCP has no confidence in their unproven navy. But note that the CCP has had operational nuclear submarines with MIRVs since 2010.)
einr 5y ago
"China’s population is ageing even faster than anticipated; its workforce is shrinking. Sky-high private-sector debt is weighing on growth."
- shsbdncudx 5y ago
  That’s weird, they age faster in China?
  - dredmorbius 5y ago
    Hypothesis 1: China have invented time travel and its residents age more quickly due to the resulting subjective time experience. Hypothesis 2: Given a decades-long one-child-per-family policy, China's demographic curve has fewer young people, and hence the older population, aging in a conventional manner, contributes more to the mean age increase of the population than elsewhere. https://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/china_2018-2050phanyxx.jpg https://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-...
    - shsbdncudx 5y ago
      It was a joke

- China imports up to half of its food. Since Xi is a clone of Mao, he doesn't care if half the population dies of a famine, but there is a high risk of civil unrest over food. - China is totally reliant on fast chips from external vendors. All of their local high-end fab programs have failed, with around $30 billion just disappearing. - China uses forced organ harvesting (mainly Uighur) to pay for its national hospital system. This is corrosive for foreign relationships long-term, with Europe becoming aware of this. - China risks war with all of their neighbors after seizing the Himalayan headwaters. Since half of those countries are Muslim, combined with the above item, this get could ugly (go nuclear.) - China stopped capital repatriation around 2016, so there's huge financial risk in building or operating factories there since profits cannot be withdrawn. Ths risk today is 100% in fact - you can't get your money out for sales in the China market. In addition, China is copying car designs, etc. and selling into the Russian market, making mfgs. like Volkswagen re-think their China strategy. - China relies on a US Marxist government to turn a blind eye to the above. Another Republican or Trumpist government will destroy China with just Trump/Pompeo's 2020 policies, let alone a total ban from US capital markets. - In a war, a lot of the one-child policy males would die. Since those men are needed to support their parents in retirement, there would be a huge backlash against the govt. (The reason for all the naval exercises reported in the press is that the CCP has no confidence in their unproven navy. But note that the CCP has had operational nuclear submarines with MIRVs since 2010.)

einr 5y ago

"China’s population is ageing even faster than anticipated; its workforce is shrinking. Sky-high private-sector debt is weighing on growth."

shsbdncudx 5y ago
That’s weird, they age faster in China?
- dredmorbius 5y ago
  Hypothesis 1: China have invented time travel and its residents age more quickly due to the resulting subjective time experience. Hypothesis 2: Given a decades-long one-child-per-family policy, China's demographic curve has fewer young people, and hence the older population, aging in a conventional manner, contributes more to the mean age increase of the population than elsewhere. https://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/china_2018-2050phanyxx.jpg https://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-...
  - shsbdncudx 5y ago
    It was a joke