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Tesla AI Day Event Did a Great Job Convincing Me They're Wasting Everybodys Time

56 points by jocker12 5y ago

cblconfederate 5y ago
Wasting? More like using them to forever-beta-test the self driving system. The thing is , it's not very likely that this will ever go out of beta, might go back to alpha. If any other company was doing this, users would be demanding to be paid for this mechanical turk work. But because it's Tesla and elon, all's good.
JohnJamesRambo 5y ago
> Here’s the root of the issue, and it’s not a technical problem. It’s the fundamental flaw of all these Level 2 driver-assist, full-attention required systems: what problem are they actually solving? This article was so good and hits the nail on the head in so many spots. I actually find I can zone out and think about other things BETTER without autopilot on. My brain drives autonomously much better without me having to play the wheel force game and constantly be in anxiety at every AI controlled turn. My brain has had a lot of training sets over many decades and drives autonomously quite well.
- pkulak 5y ago
  Hmm… not me. Keeping myself centered in the lane is tiresome (first-world problem, I know). My car only requires that my hand be resting on the wheel. No games. It’s a bit annoying to be perfectly centered at all times, I will admit. You don’t notice until you’re no longer doing it, but lane positioning is very dependent on what’s next to you. For example, being centered in your lane next to a big rig actually feels uncomfortably close to it. Luckily my car lets me adjust where I am in the lane without disengaging, but I will turn off lane keeping entirely if I find I’m fighting it too often. Now, when someone makes a system that does smart lane positioning, I’ll be set! I still have zero interest in the city stuff mentioned in the article.
  - rixed 5y ago
    I suspect the difference comes at least partially from the amount of electronic in between the stearing wheel and the road, preventing most feedback, including unconscious.
    - josephcsible 5y ago
      There is a direct mechanical link between the steering wheel and the car's front wheels. It's not steer-by-wire.
      - rixed 5y ago
        There have been many variations of assisted steering between mechanical assistance and steer by white, though.
  - eganist 5y ago
    > Keeping myself centered in the lane is tiresome (first-world problem, I know). Only because first-world nations are a bit better at enforcing lane laws. India, Iran, Indonesia, etc... the lanes might as well not exist. I recognize this isn't the point you were trying to make, but it was what my mind was immediately drawn to lol
    - mithusingh32 5y ago
      In India you create your own lane.
      - ozfive 5y ago
        That's why traffic and traffic jams are so bad there. What a waste of human existence to be stuck in things that are solvable with adhering to some lines of paint.
  - esalman 5y ago
    There are quite a few models in the market that are not Tesla and have lane centering assist.
- libertine 5y ago
  Something doesn't add up, and I think it's the author not being able to perceive the problem here. For example, OpenPilot seems to be very comfortable with Level 2 driver assist, and so do their customers - and their position seems to be make driving "chill", like you're commuting more relaxed because the car is doing the boring stuff, yet you need to be present to make some decisions. So clearly this is solving a problem for a lot of people. What people need to understand is that if you don't understand these products, then maybe they aren't meant for you - and that's OK! They are not trying to please everyone, yet that doesn't mean there's not a problem being solved for some.
  - perl4ever 5y ago
    >the car is doing the boring stuff, yet you need to be present to make some decisions. That sounds like a useful thing, but it doesn't sound like what the article was about, and it doesn't sound like a thing that exists. I think a way to rephrase the problem is that humans are some things and machines are good at others, and one of the things that machines are good at is instant safety cutoffs. The self-driving attempts I've heard about rely on humans to be the safety cutoff. Cars are often milliseconds from disaster, because of the close lateral proximity of objects while driving. Like concrete Jersey barriers. You can create space in front of you, as they tell you in defensive driving class, but you can't create 360 degree space. This is the first I've heard about openpilot, but the first thing I read about it is that comma.ai released a device called "comma one" in 2016, a month later the NHTSA asked for information on it, and they said "lol, never mind, it's cancelled". I guess that it's open source now to avoid liability.
    - libertine 5y ago
      You should look more into comma.ai, they actually just released "Comma Three" few days ago, the first version with custom hardware and not only off the shelf parts. They actually track the driver and warn you to take control (when you're not looking at the road for example). They seem to be navigating well in terms of liability, namely saying they want to remain Level 2 for the foreseeable future. It's like an upgraded lane assistant/cruise control (of course it seems way better, not trying to sell it short). From what I've been reading, there's a lot of people that would much prefer this option over giving themselves fully to self driving, or even the current solution that Tesla provides. Btw I'm no expert on the comma project, I don't own any, I'm pretty sure there's plenty of people here that know way more then I do and probably own comma hardware. I just keep an eye on what George Hotz is up to.
- SkyPuncher 5y ago
  I have an L2 car and absolutely freaking love it. I still need to "drive" but I don't need to actively provide input every single moment that I'm driving. Basically, indeed to mimic the cars movements rather than force the car where I want it. It significantly reduces fatigue and generally increases my enjoyment t of driving.
hamburgerwah 5y ago
I really don't understand the antipathy towards systems like this. Even at their worst they are 5 to 10 times safer then human drivers. That's the point. That's the only point that should matter. I understand people want some robocar utopia but it doesn't all happen at once. I will happily take a 10x reduction in driving deaths.
- anothernewdude 5y ago
  0.9x as safe as human drivers. https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/10/28/new-tesla-autopilot-statistics-show-its-almost-as-safe-driving-with-it-as-without/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/10/28/new-te...
  - sidibe 5y ago
    And as the system gets better, that number might go down instead of up since we won't be able to maintain focus.
  - Retric 5y ago
    He’s making a useful point, but doing a really poor job of it. That article creates a graph from thin air as far as I can see based on arbitrary assumptions via cherry picked estimates to make a point. For example only listing city driving and limited access highways. “If we reduce the estimate ratio of accidents/mile on freeway and non-free to just 2.3:1 (as a number from another source suggests) the chart shows Autopilot slightly below non-Autopilot until Q1 2020, then being around 15-20% better in 2020” So, he’s also estimating it may have been slightly worse before 2020 and significantly better in 2020, yet he’s happy to post the 0.9 number based on what exactly?
    - perl4ever 5y ago
      Somewhere there should be stats on taxi and bus driver accidents. I think that is what self-driving should be compared to, not the average person. It's "applying for a job" as a professional driver, not as a simulated drunk, texting, shaving, eating, feet-on-dashboard average American driver. Not too high a bar.
okareaman 5y ago
I was a skeptic, but I've recently become convinced Elon Musk is doing an important public service, despite the hype. He's moving "what's possible" in the public mind forward. He's making something the public thinks is way in the future seem like it is about to happen now. He sold the public on electric cars. He has everyone thinking about self-driving. He's convinced the public that civilian space programs can be better than govt space programs. He has made the general public think about the potential dangers of AI. And now he thinks the public is ready for personal robots by introducing the concept and getting people to think about it. He can't deliver on all this, but he's getting people ready.
- whymauri 5y ago
  I feel like the Jetsons did 4/5 of these 50 years ago, lol.
  - jmac01 5y ago
    Thats like someone inventing warp drive and saying "star trek did this 100 years ago". There's a difference between science fiction and actually making something that works.
    - whymauri 5y ago
      Did you even read the original comment? >He can't deliver on all this, but he's getting people ready. He's not going to build this, making his contribution effectively the same as the long generation of media that has already: >[Moved] "what's possible" in the public mind forward. Please read the comment I'm replying to. It's not about building, since I (and the OP) doubt he'll successfully build any of these, but apparently about the influential 'getting people ready.' Which, again, he's had little more influence in 'getting people ready' than the decades of multimedia preceding him.
  - okareaman 5y ago
    I've been hearing about flying cars my entire life. That's why I added the sentence > He's making something the public thinks is way in the future seem like it is about to happen now. People are taking it seriously because they think Musk is about to make it happen
anotheryou 5y ago
Everyone complains it's not good enough yet and I agree. But can we look beyond the decision to put this in production and look 2 years ahead? Why would you need vehicle to vehicle communication? They totally are on the right track to do exactly whet human drivers would do (no end to end ML yet though). How far away I can't say, that anything is on the road as is I think is wrong, but the demo here was really really impressive and a big leap. I wonder if they are too proud to build a "don't know that area well"-mode where it drives like grandma and is extra cautious.
- schleck8 5y ago
  I don't get it either. This is the second 'Tesla doesn't have any idea what they are doing' article I have seen on HN today. Since when are we judging technology by its first iteration or even by the concept? Such a pessimistic sentiment
  - Traster 5y ago
    I think we're judging them against what they claimed they would have delivered several years ago by now aren't we? This is the problem, a little bit of driver assist is great, Tesla are doing a great job. So are Volvo. The difference is that Volvo aren't making grandiose claims.
    - kbos87 5y ago
      This. There are thousands of people with Teslas they bought a couple years ago who were sold on a promise of fully autonomous driving. They were told that in the not too distant future, they could sleep at home while their car was out at its job as a part of the autonomous taxi fleet, driving other people where they needed to go by itself, earning them a living! I’m not sure how many people bought the hyperbole, but the lies and misrepresentation was criminal.
      - morpheos137 5y ago
        Did anybody really, honestly want this, seriously?! Did anybody want to pimp their car out for night rides to strangers who dirty the interior and wear out the car? Did anyboby consider that if your car is driving 75% of its duty cycle that parts like battery packs, tires, suspension, bearings wear out faster? The idea of robo taxis was always a pipe dream. Cars are not software. The more they are used the faster they depreciate.
zamalek 5y ago
> That segment of video was kind of maddening to watch because that’s an entirely mundane, unchallenging drive for any remotely decent, sober driver. I vehemently disagree with this. Notice how at 38:24 how it slows down for the pedestrians, most importantly the child, even though it had clear right-of-way? Why? Because children do stupid shit. That's why school speed zones exist, and why they had to double fines in school zones: because these "remotely decent" human beings are incapable of correctly assessing their skill, and regulating their behavior. People are concerned about how AI determines who to kill in a lose-lose situation, but humans routinely send the trolley towards other humans for the sake of their own time. How many people do you know who actually adhere to the speed limit, who actually maintain safe following distance, and who actually practice defensive driving? Barely competent and trivial situations are already far beyond human capability.
perl4ever 5y ago
The best comment: "Rocket science IS easier than self driving. 1) There is usually only 1 rocket in the air at any moment 2) Non-rocket vehicles are easily diverted well out of its path 3) A 3-4ft deviation in position doesn’t mow down people 4) Only some of the vehicle has to return in one piece 5) The final and most important fact: The weather is basically perfect for every launch."

56 points by jocker12 5y ago

Wasting? More like using them to forever-beta-test the self driving system. The thing is , it's not very likely that this will ever go out of beta, might go back to alpha. If any other company was doing this, users would be demanding to be paid for this mechanical turk work. But because it's Tesla and elon, all's good.

JohnJamesRambo 5y ago

> Here’s the root of the issue, and it’s not a technical problem. It’s the fundamental flaw of all these Level 2 driver-assist, full-attention required systems: what problem are they actually solving? This article was so good and hits the nail on the head in so many spots. I actually find I can zone out and think about other things BETTER without autopilot on. My brain drives autonomously much better without me having to play the wheel force game and constantly be in anxiety at every AI controlled turn. My brain has had a lot of training sets over many decades and drives autonomously quite well.

pkulak 5y ago
Hmm… not me. Keeping myself centered in the lane is tiresome (first-world problem, I know). My car only requires that my hand be resting on the wheel. No games. It’s a bit annoying to be perfectly centered at all times, I will admit. You don’t notice until you’re no longer doing it, but lane positioning is very dependent on what’s next to you. For example, being centered in your lane next to a big rig actually feels uncomfortably close to it. Luckily my car lets me adjust where I am in the lane without disengaging, but I will turn off lane keeping entirely if I find I’m fighting it too often. Now, when someone makes a system that does smart lane positioning, I’ll be set! I still have zero interest in the city stuff mentioned in the article.
- rixed 5y ago
  I suspect the difference comes at least partially from the amount of electronic in between the stearing wheel and the road, preventing most feedback, including unconscious.
  - josephcsible 5y ago
    There is a direct mechanical link between the steering wheel and the car's front wheels. It's not steer-by-wire.
    - rixed 5y ago
      There have been many variations of assisted steering between mechanical assistance and steer by white, though.
- eganist 5y ago
  > Keeping myself centered in the lane is tiresome (first-world problem, I know). Only because first-world nations are a bit better at enforcing lane laws. India, Iran, Indonesia, etc... the lanes might as well not exist. I recognize this isn't the point you were trying to make, but it was what my mind was immediately drawn to lol
  - mithusingh32 5y ago
    In India you create your own lane.
    - ozfive 5y ago
      That's why traffic and traffic jams are so bad there. What a waste of human existence to be stuck in things that are solvable with adhering to some lines of paint.
- esalman 5y ago
  There are quite a few models in the market that are not Tesla and have lane centering assist.
libertine 5y ago
Something doesn't add up, and I think it's the author not being able to perceive the problem here. For example, OpenPilot seems to be very comfortable with Level 2 driver assist, and so do their customers - and their position seems to be make driving "chill", like you're commuting more relaxed because the car is doing the boring stuff, yet you need to be present to make some decisions. So clearly this is solving a problem for a lot of people. What people need to understand is that if you don't understand these products, then maybe they aren't meant for you - and that's OK! They are not trying to please everyone, yet that doesn't mean there's not a problem being solved for some.
- perl4ever 5y ago
  >the car is doing the boring stuff, yet you need to be present to make some decisions. That sounds like a useful thing, but it doesn't sound like what the article was about, and it doesn't sound like a thing that exists. I think a way to rephrase the problem is that humans are some things and machines are good at others, and one of the things that machines are good at is instant safety cutoffs. The self-driving attempts I've heard about rely on humans to be the safety cutoff. Cars are often milliseconds from disaster, because of the close lateral proximity of objects while driving. Like concrete Jersey barriers. You can create space in front of you, as they tell you in defensive driving class, but you can't create 360 degree space. This is the first I've heard about openpilot, but the first thing I read about it is that comma.ai released a device called "comma one" in 2016, a month later the NHTSA asked for information on it, and they said "lol, never mind, it's cancelled". I guess that it's open source now to avoid liability.
  - libertine 5y ago
    You should look more into comma.ai, they actually just released "Comma Three" few days ago, the first version with custom hardware and not only off the shelf parts. They actually track the driver and warn you to take control (when you're not looking at the road for example). They seem to be navigating well in terms of liability, namely saying they want to remain Level 2 for the foreseeable future. It's like an upgraded lane assistant/cruise control (of course it seems way better, not trying to sell it short). From what I've been reading, there's a lot of people that would much prefer this option over giving themselves fully to self driving, or even the current solution that Tesla provides. Btw I'm no expert on the comma project, I don't own any, I'm pretty sure there's plenty of people here that know way more then I do and probably own comma hardware. I just keep an eye on what George Hotz is up to.
SkyPuncher 5y ago
I have an L2 car and absolutely freaking love it. I still need to "drive" but I don't need to actively provide input every single moment that I'm driving. Basically, indeed to mimic the cars movements rather than force the car where I want it. It significantly reduces fatigue and generally increases my enjoyment t of driving.

hamburgerwah 5y ago

I really don't understand the antipathy towards systems like this. Even at their worst they are 5 to 10 times safer then human drivers. That's the point. That's the only point that should matter. I understand people want some robocar utopia but it doesn't all happen at once. I will happily take a 10x reduction in driving deaths.

anothernewdude 5y ago
0.9x as safe as human drivers. https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/10/28/new-tesla-autopilot-statistics-show-its-almost-as-safe-driving-with-it-as-without/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2020/10/28/new-te...
- sidibe 5y ago
  And as the system gets better, that number might go down instead of up since we won't be able to maintain focus.
- Retric 5y ago
  He’s making a useful point, but doing a really poor job of it. That article creates a graph from thin air as far as I can see based on arbitrary assumptions via cherry picked estimates to make a point. For example only listing city driving and limited access highways. “If we reduce the estimate ratio of accidents/mile on freeway and non-free to just 2.3:1 (as a number from another source suggests) the chart shows Autopilot slightly below non-Autopilot until Q1 2020, then being around 15-20% better in 2020” So, he’s also estimating it may have been slightly worse before 2020 and significantly better in 2020, yet he’s happy to post the 0.9 number based on what exactly?
  - perl4ever 5y ago
    Somewhere there should be stats on taxi and bus driver accidents. I think that is what self-driving should be compared to, not the average person. It's "applying for a job" as a professional driver, not as a simulated drunk, texting, shaving, eating, feet-on-dashboard average American driver. Not too high a bar.

okareaman 5y ago

I was a skeptic, but I've recently become convinced Elon Musk is doing an important public service, despite the hype. He's moving "what's possible" in the public mind forward. He's making something the public thinks is way in the future seem like it is about to happen now. He sold the public on electric cars. He has everyone thinking about self-driving. He's convinced the public that civilian space programs can be better than govt space programs. He has made the general public think about the potential dangers of AI. And now he thinks the public is ready for personal robots by introducing the concept and getting people to think about it. He can't deliver on all this, but he's getting people ready.

whymauri 5y ago
I feel like the Jetsons did 4/5 of these 50 years ago, lol.
- jmac01 5y ago
  Thats like someone inventing warp drive and saying "star trek did this 100 years ago". There's a difference between science fiction and actually making something that works.
  - whymauri 5y ago
    Did you even read the original comment? >He can't deliver on all this, but he's getting people ready. He's not going to build this, making his contribution effectively the same as the long generation of media that has already: >[Moved] "what's possible" in the public mind forward. Please read the comment I'm replying to. It's not about building, since I (and the OP) doubt he'll successfully build any of these, but apparently about the influential 'getting people ready.' Which, again, he's had little more influence in 'getting people ready' than the decades of multimedia preceding him.
- okareaman 5y ago
  I've been hearing about flying cars my entire life. That's why I added the sentence > He's making something the public thinks is way in the future seem like it is about to happen now. People are taking it seriously because they think Musk is about to make it happen

anotheryou 5y ago

Everyone complains it's not good enough yet and I agree. But can we look beyond the decision to put this in production and look 2 years ahead? Why would you need vehicle to vehicle communication? They totally are on the right track to do exactly whet human drivers would do (no end to end ML yet though). How far away I can't say, that anything is on the road as is I think is wrong, but the demo here was really really impressive and a big leap. I wonder if they are too proud to build a "don't know that area well"-mode where it drives like grandma and is extra cautious.

schleck8 5y ago
I don't get it either. This is the second 'Tesla doesn't have any idea what they are doing' article I have seen on HN today. Since when are we judging technology by its first iteration or even by the concept? Such a pessimistic sentiment
- Traster 5y ago
  I think we're judging them against what they claimed they would have delivered several years ago by now aren't we? This is the problem, a little bit of driver assist is great, Tesla are doing a great job. So are Volvo. The difference is that Volvo aren't making grandiose claims.
  - kbos87 5y ago
    This. There are thousands of people with Teslas they bought a couple years ago who were sold on a promise of fully autonomous driving. They were told that in the not too distant future, they could sleep at home while their car was out at its job as a part of the autonomous taxi fleet, driving other people where they needed to go by itself, earning them a living! I’m not sure how many people bought the hyperbole, but the lies and misrepresentation was criminal.
    - morpheos137 5y ago
      Did anybody really, honestly want this, seriously?! Did anybody want to pimp their car out for night rides to strangers who dirty the interior and wear out the car? Did anyboby consider that if your car is driving 75% of its duty cycle that parts like battery packs, tires, suspension, bearings wear out faster? The idea of robo taxis was always a pipe dream. Cars are not software. The more they are used the faster they depreciate.

zamalek 5y ago

> That segment of video was kind of maddening to watch because that’s an entirely mundane, unchallenging drive for any remotely decent, sober driver. I vehemently disagree with this. Notice how at 38:24 how it slows down for the pedestrians, most importantly the child, even though it had clear right-of-way? Why? Because children do stupid shit. That's why school speed zones exist, and why they had to double fines in school zones: because these "remotely decent" human beings are incapable of correctly assessing their skill, and regulating their behavior. People are concerned about how AI determines who to kill in a lose-lose situation, but humans routinely send the trolley towards other humans for the sake of their own time. How many people do you know who actually adhere to the speed limit, who actually maintain safe following distance, and who actually practice defensive driving? Barely competent and trivial situations are already far beyond human capability.

perl4ever 5y ago

The best comment: "Rocket science IS easier than self driving. 1) There is usually only 1 rocket in the air at any moment 2) Non-rocket vehicles are easily diverted well out of its path 3) A 3-4ft deviation in position doesn’t mow down people 4) Only some of the vehicle has to return in one piece 5) The final and most important fact: The weather is basically perfect for every launch."