51 ms·
Now assume that Moore's law stays healthy and in a few decades we're carrying around dojo-equivalent smart phones. Or implants. What do our apps do with all tha
by hirundo 5y ago
Now assume that Moore's law stays healthy and in a few decades we're carrying around dojo-equivalent smart phones. Or implants. What do our apps do with all that compute? Detailed convincing AR, accurate real-time translation, identify almost any object in sight, turing-test passing answering machine. We'll be carrying around neural-net training hardware that is different than the stuff between our ears, often worse but sometimes much better. A cyber brain. Scary af.
- jameskilton 5y agoI wish I had your optimism. All I expect are better ways to deliver targeted advertising.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- pplante 5y agoWe will have 7 more layers of UI abstraction to solve the problem of not adequately warming the users hands as they use it during extreme winter weather caused by climate change.
- roca 5y agoPerformance per watt is not improving that much, nor is feature size. You'll probably never be carrying around a supercomputer with this many FLOPS.
- cma 5y agoEven with reversible computing?
- nefitty 5y agoWhat about cloud services. A 5G connection to a supercomputer on demand.
- roca 5y agoYou can have that now. That's now that the parent was hoping for.
- roca 5y agoIf we ever use reversible computing it won't look anything like this Tesla stuff, that's for sure.
- freemint 5y agoLinear algebra is reversible if you nudge the matrixes so that the determinant is non-zero.
- vlovich123 5y agoMoore’s law is quite dead. Transistor density isn’t doubling. We’re still getting speed increases due to architectural improvements, but transistor density is capping out because thermals are a problem. That’s why you see these massive wafer designs and they’re not shrinking.
- WoodenChair 5y ago> Transistor density isn’t doubling. It pretty much continues to double: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count#/media/File%3AMoore's_Law_Transistor_Count_1970-2020.png https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count#/media/File...
- Baeocystin 5y agoRaw transistor count isn't the same as density.
- WoodenChair 5y agoSure, but if you look at the raw transistor count of a series of similarly sized dies (take Apple's A series for example), it holds up. It only doesn't hold up if you look at Intel the last 5 years. If you look at series' made on TSMC or Samsung, it holds up.
- smolder 5y agoIf you look at CPU performance relative to density as it has progressed over the last few decades, there's a clear decline in speed improvement. Denser only means faster to a point, regardless of Intel's process update failures.
- WoodenChair 5y agoNot sure what you’re replying to. The statement I’m replying to didn’t say anything about performance. It said “ Transistor density isn’t doubling.”
- icytrumpet 5y agoThat's not a world I want to live in. Not even a little bit.
- pbalau 5y ago> What do our apps do with all that compute? javascript
- sillysaurusx 5y agoThis isn’t far from the truth. But embrace it rather than feel upset by it. The world of programmers can be unlocked by a good API. And the underlying components can be C{,++}, as V8 is.
- mysterydip 5y agoBased on current computing resource usage: ads.
- flipbrad 5y agoIt's going to be really good at scanning your texts and photos to check they don't contain unacceptable content.
- rPlayer6554 5y ago> What do our apps do with all that compute? Detailed convincing AR, accurate real-time translation, identify almost any object in sight, turing-test passing answering machine. We'll be carrying around neural-net training hardware Or more likely they'll spend the compute power on the latest JavaScript framework....
- Keyframe 5y agoPredict weather and issue an AR warning where to seek shelter from nearby tornado and a passing heat dome, all sponsored by your telecom and facilitated by facebook, of course.
- _ph_ 5y agoIf have a recent iPhone, you are carrying some special purpose neural net hardware around in your pocket already. I think this is a trend which is going to continue. First obvious application is, that speech recognition moves onto the phones themselves, no network required any more.