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First off, I'm sorry you had to suffer like that - and I don't want anyone to be denied healthcare. > I’d rather vaccinate and mask up then be denied healthcar

First off, I'm sorry you had to suffer like that - and I don't want anyone to be denied healthcare. > I’d rather vaccinate and mask up then be denied healthcare You've presented a false dichotomy here - mass vaccination and masking will not necessarily prevent overwhelmed hospitals. Israel is a prime example - with one of the highest vaccination rates in the world - their hospitals are being overwhelmed right now due to the variants. The CDC is reporting similar data from the U.S. [1][2][3]. There's no doubt that vaccination is saving some lives, but it also may be partly to blame for the increasing dominance of variants of concern. [4][5] And counterintuitively, compulsory masking is likely setting us up for a very bad winter in terms of endemic illnesses such as influenza and RSV - which poses an increased risk of overwhelming medical facilities even further. I only raise these counterpoints to help inform others and bring much needed nuance to these discussions. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e3.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e3.htm [2] https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-08-13/04-COVID-Scobie-508.pdf https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-... [3] https://www.cdc.gov/library/covid19/08132021_covidupdate.html https://www.cdc.gov/library/covid19/08132021_covidupdate.htm... [4] Risk of rapid evolutionary escape from biomedical interventions targeting SARS-CoV-2 spike protein https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33909660/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33909660/ [5] Can we predict the limits of SARS-CoV-2 variants and their phenotypic consequences? https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/long-term-evolution-of-sars-cov-2-26-july-2021 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/long-term-evoluti... [6] The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections https://www.pnas.org/content/117/48/30547 https://www.pnas.org/content/117/48/30547

eecc 5y ago
Only 66% of Israelis are fully vaccinated: there's a good 3 million hard-core religious orthodox who won't let science interfere with their deity's will. 3 million of blissfully and deliberately ignorant individuals who won't adapt their social behavior to avoid viral spread is more than enough to overrun any health system.
- walterbell 5y ago
  How many of those were infected and recovered in the last 18 months?
  - undersuit 5y ago
    How many were infected multiple times in the last 18 months?
    - walterbell 5y ago
      I don't have the Israel numbers, but UK data shows 137 confirmed cases of reinfection out of 5.2 million first-positive PCR tests, which works out to 0.003%, see charge on page 18, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1012240/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w33.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
      - bodyfour 5y ago
        I would be cautious about interpreting those numbers without a bit of nuance. The original spring 2020 outbreak in the UK was huge, affecting a sizable percentage of the population. However at that time PCR testing was nowhere near scaled up to the point that all of these cases could be tested. Therefore if you were infected in the first wave, recovered, and are now reinfected 16 months later you probably aren't going to be one of those 137 because it's quite unlikely you were PCR tested the first time around. That's not to say reinfection is super-common either, but it's probably at least an order of magnitude (or possibly even two) more common than that raw percentage would suggest. In other words, you've produced a statistic with zero significant figures of accuracy.
    - SergeAx 5y ago
      I was infected 3 times in last 9 months, according to my IgG level. First time I was one day away of hospitalization, 20% lungs damaged. Second time it was 37.1C temperature for 3 days (for those from imperial system, norm in 36.9) and no other symptoms. Third time I didn't notice at all.
chefkoch 5y ago
> Israel is a prime example - with the highest vaccination rate in the world Israel has 60% of the population fully vacced, compared to iceland with 71% >Israel's ICUs overflow as unvaccinated patients fall severely ill https://www.ynetnews.com/health_science/article/sj1lzflgk https://www.ynetnews.com/health_science/article/sj1lzflgk
- cma 5y ago
  Isreal also pretty strictly contolled things early on so had less natural immunity than others going into this wave (but Iceland did that too). And they struck a deal to get the vaccine early, so may have wanin immunity (lots of debate on this and whether this actually just behavior change due to presumption of immunity).
nine_k 5y ago
Did you notice the distinct lack of flu outbreak last winter? I suppose marks and social distancing just prevented it altogether.
- NamTaf 5y ago
  They did. Australia publishes data on this and the effect is profound. Australia has had about 400 flu cases in 2021, compared to a 5-year average of about 50000. None of those cases in 2021 have been hospitalised or led to death, when in the average year there’d be about 150. 2020 also yielded a similarly precipitous drop in cases.
- mbalex99 5y ago
  Did states that didn’t shut down schools or businesses see normal rates of flu? https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm It seems like it just disappeared regardless of restrictions.
  - nine_k 5y ago
    It could have disappeared from Europe because the new version did not arrive from South-East Asia, where it normally originates. The anti-covid measures there might have prevented the world outbreak. The previous flu version is not as potent due to vaccination and people having had it, thus the herd immunity is achieved.
bertil 5y ago
> You've presented a false dichotomy here - mass vaccination and masking will not necessarily prevent overwhelmed hospitals. That’s a very disingenuous way of presenting things: we can’t extinguish the house fire so we might as well leave the kids upstairs. It’s used far too much by people keen to profit from a cultural war that has nothing to do with health policies. It’s a sad news that a simple solution isn’t enough, but in no way it should called “a counter-point”. It’s not. “Vaccines alone are not enough” isn’t a counter point to saying that they are a necessary aspect of getting the pandemic to acceptable levels. It’s just saying they are insufficient. Vaccines are incredibly effective; if hospitals are overwhelmed there would be far more deaths without the vaccines and you cannot in good conscience argue against widespread vaccination by claiming they are not enough on their own. There are many more things that can be done, and put all together last year, they have helped delay infection, spread the wave of hospitalisation to manageable levels. If we need more efforts now, let’s not throw the most effective tool we have because it’s not a cure-all.

eecc 5y ago

Only 66% of Israelis are fully vaccinated: there's a good 3 million hard-core religious orthodox who won't let science interfere with their deity's will. 3 million of blissfully and deliberately ignorant individuals who won't adapt their social behavior to avoid viral spread is more than enough to overrun any health system.

walterbell 5y ago
How many of those were infected and recovered in the last 18 months?
- undersuit 5y ago
  How many were infected multiple times in the last 18 months?
  - walterbell 5y ago
    I don't have the Israel numbers, but UK data shows 137 confirmed cases of reinfection out of 5.2 million first-positive PCR tests, which works out to 0.003%, see charge on page 18, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1012240/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w33.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
    - bodyfour 5y ago
      I would be cautious about interpreting those numbers without a bit of nuance. The original spring 2020 outbreak in the UK was huge, affecting a sizable percentage of the population. However at that time PCR testing was nowhere near scaled up to the point that all of these cases could be tested. Therefore if you were infected in the first wave, recovered, and are now reinfected 16 months later you probably aren't going to be one of those 137 because it's quite unlikely you were PCR tested the first time around. That's not to say reinfection is super-common either, but it's probably at least an order of magnitude (or possibly even two) more common than that raw percentage would suggest. In other words, you've produced a statistic with zero significant figures of accuracy.
  - SergeAx 5y ago
    I was infected 3 times in last 9 months, according to my IgG level. First time I was one day away of hospitalization, 20% lungs damaged. Second time it was 37.1C temperature for 3 days (for those from imperial system, norm in 36.9) and no other symptoms. Third time I didn't notice at all.

chefkoch 5y ago

> Israel is a prime example - with the highest vaccination rate in the world Israel has 60% of the population fully vacced, compared to iceland with 71% >Israel's ICUs overflow as unvaccinated patients fall severely ill https://www.ynetnews.com/health_science/article/sj1lzflgk https://www.ynetnews.com/health_science/article/sj1lzflgk

cma 5y ago
Isreal also pretty strictly contolled things early on so had less natural immunity than others going into this wave (but Iceland did that too). And they struck a deal to get the vaccine early, so may have wanin immunity (lots of debate on this and whether this actually just behavior change due to presumption of immunity).

nine_k 5y ago

Did you notice the distinct lack of flu outbreak last winter? I suppose marks and social distancing just prevented it altogether.

NamTaf 5y ago
They did. Australia publishes data on this and the effect is profound. Australia has had about 400 flu cases in 2021, compared to a 5-year average of about 50000. None of those cases in 2021 have been hospitalised or led to death, when in the average year there’d be about 150. 2020 also yielded a similarly precipitous drop in cases.
mbalex99 5y ago
Did states that didn’t shut down schools or businesses see normal rates of flu? https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm It seems like it just disappeared regardless of restrictions.
- nine_k 5y ago
  It could have disappeared from Europe because the new version did not arrive from South-East Asia, where it normally originates. The anti-covid measures there might have prevented the world outbreak. The previous flu version is not as potent due to vaccination and people having had it, thus the herd immunity is achieved.

bertil 5y ago

> You've presented a false dichotomy here - mass vaccination and masking will not necessarily prevent overwhelmed hospitals. That’s a very disingenuous way of presenting things: we can’t extinguish the house fire so we might as well leave the kids upstairs. It’s used far too much by people keen to profit from a cultural war that has nothing to do with health policies. It’s a sad news that a simple solution isn’t enough, but in no way it should called “a counter-point”. It’s not. “Vaccines alone are not enough” isn’t a counter point to saying that they are a necessary aspect of getting the pandemic to acceptable levels. It’s just saying they are insufficient. Vaccines are incredibly effective; if hospitals are overwhelmed there would be far more deaths without the vaccines and you cannot in good conscience argue against widespread vaccination by claiming they are not enough on their own. There are many more things that can be done, and put all together last year, they have helped delay infection, spread the wave of hospitalisation to manageable levels. If we need more efforts now, let’s not throw the most effective tool we have because it’s not a cure-all.