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A recent study showed having had COVID before offers less protection from reinfection than the vaccine [0]. "The study of hundreds of Kentucky residents with p

A recent study showed having had COVID before offers less protection from reinfection than the vaccine [0]. "The study of hundreds of Kentucky residents with previous infections through June 2021 found that those who were unvaccinated had 2.34 times the odds of reinfection compared with those who were fully vaccinated. The findings suggest that among people who have had COVID-19 previously, getting fully vaccinated provides additional protection against reinfection." [0] https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0806-vaccination-protection.html https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s0806-vaccination-pr...

walterbell 5y ago
Detailed response to that study, https://satyameva.medium.com/analysis-of-reduced-risk-of-reinfection-with-sars-cov-2-after-covid-19-vaccination-in-kentucky-2e797a5f3c44 https://satyameva.medium.com/analysis-of-reduced-risk-of-rei... > Also what should be obvious is this study doesn’t really look at the relative strengths of naturally acquired immunity vs vaccination acquired immunity, it is looking at whether vaccination can add further to the robust protection elicited by covid infection. Latest UK data shows 137 confirmed cases of reinfection out of 5.2 million first-positive PCR tests, which works out to 0.003%, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1012240/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w33.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... (see chart on page 18)
sreque 5y ago
This article completely destroy the CDC's report: https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/08/more-voodoo-epidemiology-at-the-cdc.php https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/08/more-voodoo-e.... The CDC's report is a fantastic example as to why the CDC don't deserve our trust. They are dishonest. They cherry pick data to fit their narrative. They are unburdened by the constraints of peer review. They admit in their own study that it can't apply causation and yet they remain silent as the media run wild and report the study as causative fact. This analysis has, to my knowledge, not been debunked at all: https://arieh.substack.com/p/inside-israels-delta-outbreak-part https://arieh.substack.com/p/inside-israels-delta-outbreak-p.... It shows natural immunity far outclassing vaccine immunity in Israel. In terms of peer reviewed studies, they all show that natural immunity is fantastic: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2781112 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2781112 https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2589-5370(21)00182-6 https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2589-5370(21)0... https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-3791(21)00203-2 https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-37... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8209951/pdf/RMV-9999-e2260.pdf https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8209951/pdf/RMV...
- walterbell 5y ago
  https://arieh.substack.com/p/inside-israels-delta-outbreak-part https://arieh.substack.com/p/inside-israels-delta-outbreak-p... > it looks like recovered people — people who had tested positive for the coronavirus in a past PCR test — are massively under-represented. Recovered people are around 9% of Israel’s population, but they’re less than 1% of current cases. > That has led to speculation that recovery from past Covid is more protective against infection from the Delta Variant than vaccination. Known recovered people in Israel are mostly not vaccinated, though some chose to get a single booster dose ... From data I was passed last week, recovered people were testing at only 0.1% positivity, compared to more than 1% for vaccinated people. > I wouldn’t be surprised if natural infection turned out to be more protective against variants than spike protein vaccination. It makes sense that the body’s immune system would find more ways to attack the whole pathogen and would recognise different parts of it compared to the changing spike in variants.
- jjwiseman 5y ago
  https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-... argues that people are misinterpreting the Israeli data due to Simpson's paradox: In the case of vaccine efficacy vs. severe disease, it is the fact that both vaccination status and risk of severe disease are systematically higher in the older age group that makes overall efficacy numbers if estimated without stratifying by age misleading, producing a paradoxical result that the overall efficacy (67.5%) is much lower than the efficacy for either of the age groups (91.8% and 85.2%).
  - sreque 5y ago
    Thanks for sharing this analysis. I scanned through it and it seems reasonable to me. I don't think anyone actually thinks natural immunity is 7 times as effective as vaccine immunity, as the numbers suggest might suggest without deeper or more thorough analysis. As far as I can tell, the analysis you link also continues to support the notion that natural immunity works wonderfully well, on par with or better than vaccine immunity as far as we can tell.

walterbell 5y ago

Detailed response to that study, https://satyameva.medium.com/analysis-of-reduced-risk-of-reinfection-with-sars-cov-2-after-covid-19-vaccination-in-kentucky-2e797a5f3c44 https://satyameva.medium.com/analysis-of-reduced-risk-of-rei... > Also what should be obvious is this study doesn’t really look at the relative strengths of naturally acquired immunity vs vaccination acquired immunity, it is looking at whether vaccination can add further to the robust protection elicited by covid infection. Latest UK data shows 137 confirmed cases of reinfection out of 5.2 million first-positive PCR tests, which works out to 0.003%, https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1012240/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w33.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/... (see chart on page 18)

sreque 5y ago

This article completely destroy the CDC's report: https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/08/more-voodoo-epidemiology-at-the-cdc.php https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2021/08/more-voodoo-e.... The CDC's report is a fantastic example as to why the CDC don't deserve our trust. They are dishonest. They cherry pick data to fit their narrative. They are unburdened by the constraints of peer review. They admit in their own study that it can't apply causation and yet they remain silent as the media run wild and report the study as causative fact. This analysis has, to my knowledge, not been debunked at all: https://arieh.substack.com/p/inside-israels-delta-outbreak-part https://arieh.substack.com/p/inside-israels-delta-outbreak-p.... It shows natural immunity far outclassing vaccine immunity in Israel. In terms of peer reviewed studies, they all show that natural immunity is fantastic: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2781112 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2781112 https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2589-5370(21)00182-6 https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2589-5370(21)0... https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-3791(21)00203-2 https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-37... https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8209951/pdf/RMV-9999-e2260.pdf https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8209951/pdf/RMV...

walterbell 5y ago
https://arieh.substack.com/p/inside-israels-delta-outbreak-part https://arieh.substack.com/p/inside-israels-delta-outbreak-p... > it looks like recovered people — people who had tested positive for the coronavirus in a past PCR test — are massively under-represented. Recovered people are around 9% of Israel’s population, but they’re less than 1% of current cases. > That has led to speculation that recovery from past Covid is more protective against infection from the Delta Variant than vaccination. Known recovered people in Israel are mostly not vaccinated, though some chose to get a single booster dose ... From data I was passed last week, recovered people were testing at only 0.1% positivity, compared to more than 1% for vaccinated people. > I wouldn’t be surprised if natural infection turned out to be more protective against variants than spike protein vaccination. It makes sense that the body’s immune system would find more ways to attack the whole pathogen and would recognise different parts of it compared to the changing spike in variants.
jjwiseman 5y ago
https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-... argues that people are misinterpreting the Israeli data due to Simpson's paradox: In the case of vaccine efficacy vs. severe disease, it is the fact that both vaccination status and risk of severe disease are systematically higher in the older age group that makes overall efficacy numbers if estimated without stratifying by age misleading, producing a paradoxical result that the overall efficacy (67.5%) is much lower than the efficacy for either of the age groups (91.8% and 85.2%).
- sreque 5y ago
  Thanks for sharing this analysis. I scanned through it and it seems reasonable to me. I don't think anyone actually thinks natural immunity is 7 times as effective as vaccine immunity, as the numbers suggest might suggest without deeper or more thorough analysis. As far as I can tell, the analysis you link also continues to support the notion that natural immunity works wonderfully well, on par with or better than vaccine immunity as far as we can tell.