4 ms·

> I think we are about to face... I feel like this is what most experts were saying from near the beginning: this is not a few months problem. This is an ongoi

> I think we are about to face... I feel like this is what most experts were saying from near the beginning: this is not a few months problem. This is an ongoing problem that will require us to adapt just as it adapts. I remember many articles in 2020 projecting what the virus might look like 5 or 8 years out. Lockdowns and other extreme measures were about flattening infection curves to keep from overwhelming health systems, not about eradicating the virus outright. Masks and distancing are about getting the virus to a manageable infection rate to minimize impact on our new normal lives. Vaccines are the only way out without high mortality and extreme pressure on our health systems. Whether it requires vaccines like polio (one or two and safe forever) or flu (annual) is yet to be determined AFAIK. It seems like somewhere in the middle is most likely at least for many years to come.

ldjkfkdsjnv 5y ago
I just dont see how getting a shot every year or six months for eternity is a viable solution. Not only that, vaccinated individuals can encourage new mutations (this is controversial, but I believe over time it will be realized)
- kaoD 5y ago
  > I just dont see how getting a shot every year or six months for eternity is a viable solution What do you mean? We have yearly flu vaccinations.
  - paganel 5y ago
    > We have yearly flu vaccinations. Where I live (Eastern Europe) those are taken by a minority of the population.
    - ImprovedSilence 5y ago
      That doesn't mean that's how it should be...
  - TurkishPoptart 5y ago
    Yes, but flu shots are entirely voluntary. Meanwhile, there's legislation being considered in the U.S. to put people on Do Not Fly lists for not showing proof of being "fully" vaccinated. And who knows how far the goalposts can move when it comes to what "fully" vaccinated means. Next year, that might mean having had 4 shots, or more.
    - munk-a 5y ago
      In the 1970s the US required MMR shots for attendance in public schools and the disease quickly tapered off - we've done this before and, so long as the vaccinations aren't inducing a financial burden on individuals that are unable to afford it - I see no issue with requiring vaccination if you want to share a close space with others. A lot of potential partners will reject you if you're unable to provide negative STD results - this isn't all that different. Oh also - a small pedantic correction. There is a formal thing in the US called the No Fly List and I've heard absolutely nothing about putting people onto it for not getting vaccinated - there has been discussion to restrict your ability to fly if you're unvaccinated though which... would be easy to fix (unlike getting off the No Fly List) by simply getting the shot.
      - betwixthewires 5y ago
        First, public schools are government institutions, airlines are not. Sure, flight is heavily regulated, but do you want to live in a world where private companies form a cartel and all agree to require a medical treatment, effectively blocking you from long distance travel? Second, their are religious exemptions to mandatory vaccinations. We can argue whether there should be, whether they're abused and all that, but as long as they're going to exist, shouldn't they apply across the board?
        munk-a 5y ago
        To the first point - yes because it's being done for a completely valid medical reason. There isn't a slippery slope argument available here because people consider this reasonable because the cause is reasonable. To the second point - I think religion does a lot of harm to modern society so I'd rather those all went away - yes even for the amish as inoffensive as they are.
munk-a 5y ago
> this is not a few months problem I agree that it was never a few months problem - but I think we had a window to stamp it out and low vaccination production and adoption rates have killed that window dead. I don't believe it's impossible that we beat this - but I would not be surprised if mutation rates simply outrun vaccination adaptation.
- theonething 5y ago
  > I think we had a window to stamp it out What do you base that on? That seems highly unlikely to me. Even as the virus tapers down in one country, it or a variant surges back in five others and then it spreads to others. I haven't seen any chance of stamping that out.
  - munk-a 5y ago
    I mainly have a view into how Canada responded to the virus - and we did things okay-ish but weren't at emergency levels. Canada provided a lot of pre-orders for doses to try and spur private research into the vaccine (provide a monetary incentive) but it really lagged on any serious investment into nationalized production facilities with the main assumed acquisition method being purchasing them abroad. In March 2020 we all knew that there would eventually be a strong need to produce a vaccine (or like... we'd all die - it was one of those two options) and Canada is a relatively economically advanced nation with the capability (and public will - unlike the US) to build large non-private vaccination production facilities. This likely would drive long term employment as well as helping to fight against the pandemic. The world could have seen this pandemic and gone all war-industry on it - convert factories and gear up production as if the nazis were days away from invading our shores - we simply didn't.

ldjkfkdsjnv 5y ago

I just dont see how getting a shot every year or six months for eternity is a viable solution. Not only that, vaccinated individuals can encourage new mutations (this is controversial, but I believe over time it will be realized)

kaoD 5y ago
> I just dont see how getting a shot every year or six months for eternity is a viable solution What do you mean? We have yearly flu vaccinations.
- paganel 5y ago
  > We have yearly flu vaccinations. Where I live (Eastern Europe) those are taken by a minority of the population.
  - ImprovedSilence 5y ago
    That doesn't mean that's how it should be...
- TurkishPoptart 5y ago
  Yes, but flu shots are entirely voluntary. Meanwhile, there's legislation being considered in the U.S. to put people on Do Not Fly lists for not showing proof of being "fully" vaccinated. And who knows how far the goalposts can move when it comes to what "fully" vaccinated means. Next year, that might mean having had 4 shots, or more.
  - munk-a 5y ago
    In the 1970s the US required MMR shots for attendance in public schools and the disease quickly tapered off - we've done this before and, so long as the vaccinations aren't inducing a financial burden on individuals that are unable to afford it - I see no issue with requiring vaccination if you want to share a close space with others. A lot of potential partners will reject you if you're unable to provide negative STD results - this isn't all that different. Oh also - a small pedantic correction. There is a formal thing in the US called the No Fly List and I've heard absolutely nothing about putting people onto it for not getting vaccinated - there has been discussion to restrict your ability to fly if you're unvaccinated though which... would be easy to fix (unlike getting off the No Fly List) by simply getting the shot.
    - betwixthewires 5y ago
      First, public schools are government institutions, airlines are not. Sure, flight is heavily regulated, but do you want to live in a world where private companies form a cartel and all agree to require a medical treatment, effectively blocking you from long distance travel? Second, their are religious exemptions to mandatory vaccinations. We can argue whether there should be, whether they're abused and all that, but as long as they're going to exist, shouldn't they apply across the board?
      - munk-a 5y ago
        To the first point - yes because it's being done for a completely valid medical reason. There isn't a slippery slope argument available here because people consider this reasonable because the cause is reasonable. To the second point - I think religion does a lot of harm to modern society so I'd rather those all went away - yes even for the amish as inoffensive as they are.

munk-a 5y ago

> this is not a few months problem I agree that it was never a few months problem - but I think we had a window to stamp it out and low vaccination production and adoption rates have killed that window dead. I don't believe it's impossible that we beat this - but I would not be surprised if mutation rates simply outrun vaccination adaptation.

theonething 5y ago
> I think we had a window to stamp it out What do you base that on? That seems highly unlikely to me. Even as the virus tapers down in one country, it or a variant surges back in five others and then it spreads to others. I haven't seen any chance of stamping that out.
- munk-a 5y ago
  I mainly have a view into how Canada responded to the virus - and we did things okay-ish but weren't at emergency levels. Canada provided a lot of pre-orders for doses to try and spur private research into the vaccine (provide a monetary incentive) but it really lagged on any serious investment into nationalized production facilities with the main assumed acquisition method being purchasing them abroad. In March 2020 we all knew that there would eventually be a strong need to produce a vaccine (or like... we'd all die - it was one of those two options) and Canada is a relatively economically advanced nation with the capability (and public will - unlike the US) to build large non-private vaccination production facilities. This likely would drive long term employment as well as helping to fight against the pandemic. The world could have seen this pandemic and gone all war-industry on it - convert factories and gear up production as if the nazis were days away from invading our shores - we simply didn't.