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> Well, there are certainly no obvious conflicts of interest behind this quote. This is just an empty ad hominem. Is the data accurate or is it inaccurate? I

> Well, there are certainly no obvious conflicts of interest behind this quote. This is just an empty ad hominem. Is the data accurate or is it inaccurate? Is the interpretation of the data valid or is it invalid? Either SpaceX is or it is not involved in a lot of close calls in orbit. These are not facts up for interpretation, they either are or they aren't. Whether a given rate is alarming or not is a value judgement, certainly, but if there has been a significant increase in rate, and SpaceX has been responsible for that increase, then the facts speak for themselves. So, what is your take on the facts as they've been reported?

Jtsummers 5y ago
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28250125 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28250125 My other comment. Summary: SpaceX seems to be no worse an actor than other operators. Doubling the number of satellites in orbit would, by the odds, result in an expected doubling of the number of incidents (if not more, actually). Owning half the satellites in orbit means they, again, by the odds should be involved in around half the incidents. These statements are in the article, but obscured because the article presents the facts but doesn't clarify that statistically this is actually close to what should be expected. Further, they do provide enough facts to see that OneWeb is actually slightly worse than Starlink. However it's again obscured because they present a raw total without conveying how it relates to their share of satellites in orbit. And that's on the facts. The other aspect is the tone. The way we phrase things influences interpretation, journalists (especially) are aware of this. The article's style: > Starlink satellites come within 1km of other satellites 500 times per week. This lays, implicitly, the blame or responsibility on Starlink. However, it could be easily turned around (both satellites in a close encounter are in motion, it's not like Starlink satellites are approaching static objects here): > Other satellites come within 1km of Starlink satellites 500 times per week. Here, Starlink is presented as the innocent party. The two phrases express the same idea if you read past the implication the ordering presents, but by choosing one or the other you encourage the reader to come to a conclusion that isn't justified by the rest of the article (in either manner of phrasing).
- CarelessExpert 5y ago
  All excellent points, thank you!
caconym_ 5y ago
> This is just an empty ad hominem. No, it's not. I'm suggesting that there is an obvious conflict of interest here, because there is. > Is the data accurate or is it inaccurate? I would not characterize the quantitative content of this article, such as the number of satellites Starlink currently operates, as inaccurate. > Is the interpretation of the data valid or is it invalid? It is my opinion that the article does not offer a cogent interpretation of any data beyond what's obvious on the face of the numbers they quote. > Either SpaceX is or it is not involved in a lot of close calls in orbit. These are not facts up for interpretation, they either are or they aren't. The number of "close calls" (assuming here you're taking the article's definition of such an event as being "when two craft pass within one kilometre of each other") is just a number, and I am not "interpreting" or otherwise questioning it. I'm simply questioning why it matters. > Whether a given rate is alarming or not is a value judgement, certainly, but if there has been a significant increase in rate, and SpaceX has been responsible for that increase, then the facts speak for themselves. And what is it that they're saying? And how does it contradict anything I said in my comment? > So, what is your take on the facts as they've been reported? See above.
- CarelessExpert 5y ago
  > No, it's not. I'm suggesting that there is an obvious conflict of interest here, because there is. Actually, it literally is. From https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem "when someone makes an ad hominem, they are attacking the person they are arguing against, instead of what they are saying." That's quite literally what you were doing in your first comment: attacking the person instead of engaging with their claims. > The number of "close calls" (assuming here you're taking the article's definition of such an event as being "when two craft pass within one kilometre of each other") is just a number, and I am not "interpreting" or otherwise questioning it. I'm simply questioning why it matters. And that is a valid conversation to have. But just saying "bad source, biased" isn't meaningful. It adds literally nothing of value to the conversation. So let's talk about that! I'd say that collisions between objects in orbit does matter and an increased rate of close calls is a reasonable indication that there's likely an increased probability of a collision. Now, SpaceX has an unusually large number of objects in LEO, so just by virtue of those numbers, they're likely to have a higher number of close calls than other operators. The question for me, is: could SpaceX be doing something differently to reduce these incident rates? It'd be nice to get some visibility into how SpaceX is managing their fleet, and the means by which they're coordinating with other operators. Maybe it's the case that SpaceX is doing everything they can and this is just the practical reality of operating a large fleet of satellites in LEO. But at this point I just don't know, so it'd be good to learn more.

Jtsummers 5y ago

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28250125 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28250125 My other comment. Summary: SpaceX seems to be no worse an actor than other operators. Doubling the number of satellites in orbit would, by the odds, result in an expected doubling of the number of incidents (if not more, actually). Owning half the satellites in orbit means they, again, by the odds should be involved in around half the incidents. These statements are in the article, but obscured because the article presents the facts but doesn't clarify that statistically this is actually close to what should be expected. Further, they do provide enough facts to see that OneWeb is actually slightly worse than Starlink. However it's again obscured because they present a raw total without conveying how it relates to their share of satellites in orbit. And that's on the facts. The other aspect is the tone. The way we phrase things influences interpretation, journalists (especially) are aware of this. The article's style: > Starlink satellites come within 1km of other satellites 500 times per week. This lays, implicitly, the blame or responsibility on Starlink. However, it could be easily turned around (both satellites in a close encounter are in motion, it's not like Starlink satellites are approaching static objects here): > Other satellites come within 1km of Starlink satellites 500 times per week. Here, Starlink is presented as the innocent party. The two phrases express the same idea if you read past the implication the ordering presents, but by choosing one or the other you encourage the reader to come to a conclusion that isn't justified by the rest of the article (in either manner of phrasing).

CarelessExpert 5y ago
All excellent points, thank you!

caconym_ 5y ago

> This is just an empty ad hominem. No, it's not. I'm suggesting that there is an obvious conflict of interest here, because there is. > Is the data accurate or is it inaccurate? I would not characterize the quantitative content of this article, such as the number of satellites Starlink currently operates, as inaccurate. > Is the interpretation of the data valid or is it invalid? It is my opinion that the article does not offer a cogent interpretation of any data beyond what's obvious on the face of the numbers they quote. > Either SpaceX is or it is not involved in a lot of close calls in orbit. These are not facts up for interpretation, they either are or they aren't. The number of "close calls" (assuming here you're taking the article's definition of such an event as being "when two craft pass within one kilometre of each other") is just a number, and I am not "interpreting" or otherwise questioning it. I'm simply questioning why it matters. > Whether a given rate is alarming or not is a value judgement, certainly, but if there has been a significant increase in rate, and SpaceX has been responsible for that increase, then the facts speak for themselves. And what is it that they're saying? And how does it contradict anything I said in my comment? > So, what is your take on the facts as they've been reported? See above.

CarelessExpert 5y ago
> No, it's not. I'm suggesting that there is an obvious conflict of interest here, because there is. Actually, it literally is. From https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_hominem "when someone makes an ad hominem, they are attacking the person they are arguing against, instead of what they are saying." That's quite literally what you were doing in your first comment: attacking the person instead of engaging with their claims. > The number of "close calls" (assuming here you're taking the article's definition of such an event as being "when two craft pass within one kilometre of each other") is just a number, and I am not "interpreting" or otherwise questioning it. I'm simply questioning why it matters. And that is a valid conversation to have. But just saying "bad source, biased" isn't meaningful. It adds literally nothing of value to the conversation. So let's talk about that! I'd say that collisions between objects in orbit does matter and an increased rate of close calls is a reasonable indication that there's likely an increased probability of a collision. Now, SpaceX has an unusually large number of objects in LEO, so just by virtue of those numbers, they're likely to have a higher number of close calls than other operators. The question for me, is: could SpaceX be doing something differently to reduce these incident rates? It'd be nice to get some visibility into how SpaceX is managing their fleet, and the means by which they're coordinating with other operators. Maybe it's the case that SpaceX is doing everything they can and this is just the practical reality of operating a large fleet of satellites in LEO. But at this point I just don't know, so it'd be good to learn more.