3 ms·
Here is a fantastic resource from the UK government that answers your question in great detail [1]. > As eradication of SARS-CoV-2 will be unlikely, we have hi
by criticaltinker 5y ago
Here is a fantastic resource from the UK government that answers your question in great detail [1].
> As eradication of SARS-CoV-2 will be unlikely, we have high confidence in stating that there
will always be variants.
> We describe hypothetical scenarios by which SARS-CoV-2 could further evolve and acquire,
through mutation, phenotypes of concern, which we assess according to possibility.
> Scenario One: A variant that causes severe disease in a greater proportion of the population than has occurred to date. For example, with similar morbidity/mortality to other zoonotic coronaviruses such as SARS-CoV (~10% case fatality) or MERS-CoV (~35% case fatality). [...] Likelihood: Realistic possibility. Impact: High.
> Scenario Two: A variant that evades current vaccines. [...] Likelihood: Realistic possibility. Impact: High.
> Scenario Three: Emergence of a drug resistant variant after anti-viral strategies. [...] Likelihood: Likely - unless the drugs are used correctly. Impact: medium.
> Scenario Four: SARS-CoV-2 follows an evolutionary trajectory with decreased virulence. [...] Likelihood: Unlikely in the short term, realistic possibility in the long term.
And here is one very relevant quote:
> There is no historic precedent for the mass administration of antiviral medication in the community as prophylaxis, apart from the use of anti influenza Neuraminidase Inhibitors, which were used to a limited extent in this way in the early phases of Influenza Pandemic of 2009 in the UK. The safety and efficacy profile must be extremely well established for a mass administration strategy to work and poor compliance will likely rapidly lead to the selection of drug resistant variants, rendering such a strategy short lived.
[1] Can we predict the limits of SARS-CoV-2 variants and their phenotypic consequences?
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/long-term-evolution-of-sars-cov-2-26-july-2021 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/long-term-evoluti...
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1007566/S1335_Long_term_evolution_of_SARS-CoV-2.pdf https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...