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Assuming such a lawless state of affairs, having a large constellation of satellites in LEO already could be used to prevent competition from reaching orbit to

Assuming such a lawless state of affairs, having a large constellation of satellites in LEO already could be used to prevent competition from reaching orbit to challenge you. I am not sure many people have noticed, but in launching thousands of Starlink satellites, SpaceX has demonstrated their ability to implement the SDI/Star Wars proposal Brilliant Pebbles, which called for a thousand or more kinetic interceptors hanging out in LEO, waiting for enemy rocket launches to crash into. At the time, Brilliant Pebbles was an absurd proposal because it called for thousands of satellites, but SpaceX has already demonstrated that ability. They can already launch 60 satellites per launch, and apparently have plans to increase that several times over. (It has occurred to me that Starlink might secretly be a Brilliant Pebbles installation already, waiting to be revealed as such if a major war were to break out. However I believe the thrusters on extant Starlink satellites are too weak for this. And they don't have the sensor suites for it either, at least officially.)

skissane 5y ago
SpaceX's latest FCC filing for Gen2 Starlink states that the new Gen2 satellites have the capacity to “accommodate additional payloads in the future” [0]. It is very plausible that the US government (Space Force, NRO, NOAA, etc) might sign up to provide some of those additional payloads. Although surveillance technology is much more likely than active weapons systems. I think SpaceX will likely resist turning Starlink into a weapon, it could be bad for their corporate image and might cause political difficulty with Starlink's approval in some countries. Surveillance technologies can always be covered up as commercial imaging, environmental/scientific imaging, military communication systems, etc. [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/spacex-starlink-satellite-internet-new-capabilities-starship-launch.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/spacex-starlink-satellite-in...
- techdragon 5y ago
  Remember the Kzinti lesson. Anything with sufficient velocity is a weapon. Thousands of Starlink satellites is functionally equivalent to a mothballed Brilliant Pebbles fleet. Now to be fair their response time will not be ideal due to the thrusters not being optimised for rapid orbit changes. But it’s definitely a software update away from being a poor mans Brilliant Pebbles, more than capable enough to threaten anyone staying in LEO (they probably couldn’t respond fast enough to nail down a direct ascent rocket aimed at LEO or something flying right through LEO altitude on its way to say the moon.)

skissane 5y ago

SpaceX's latest FCC filing for Gen2 Starlink states that the new Gen2 satellites have the capacity to “accommodate additional payloads in the future” [0]. It is very plausible that the US government (Space Force, NRO, NOAA, etc) might sign up to provide some of those additional payloads. Although surveillance technology is much more likely than active weapons systems. I think SpaceX will likely resist turning Starlink into a weapon, it could be bad for their corporate image and might cause political difficulty with Starlink's approval in some countries. Surveillance technologies can always be covered up as commercial imaging, environmental/scientific imaging, military communication systems, etc. [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/spacex-starlink-satellite-internet-new-capabilities-starship-launch.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/19/spacex-starlink-satellite-in...

techdragon 5y ago
Remember the Kzinti lesson. Anything with sufficient velocity is a weapon. Thousands of Starlink satellites is functionally equivalent to a mothballed Brilliant Pebbles fleet. Now to be fair their response time will not be ideal due to the thrusters not being optimised for rapid orbit changes. But it’s definitely a software update away from being a poor mans Brilliant Pebbles, more than capable enough to threaten anyone staying in LEO (they probably couldn’t respond fast enough to nail down a direct ascent rocket aimed at LEO or something flying right through LEO altitude on its way to say the moon.)