You can end up worse off for waiting, even if there is a "bubble pop". Even people who correctly identify market bubbles and have good timing can lose in the lo

You can end up worse off for waiting, even if there is a "bubble pop". Even people who correctly identify market bubbles and have good timing can lose in the long run because the gains during the run up of the market compound so much it ends up being smarter to ride out the dips. Unlike any other investment a home has direct utility for the buyer as shelter. You should buy what home you can afford and don't try to time the market. You are much more likely to end up worse off by waiting. Here's a hypothetical scenario for an SF home: A home that would have sold for 1.7m in 2015 blows up to 3.1m today, then the supposed bubble "pops" and it drops over the next year to 2.5m. Then over the following 5 years it recovers to 2.8m. At no point was it a good idea to wait. Buying in 2015 was the best move. Buying today (at the supposed top of the bubble) only loses you 300k, while waiting to purchase cost you up to 1.4m. Buying post-pop costs you at least 800k, far more than you'd lose buying at the peak. All while paying rent instead of building equity. Waiting for a bubble to pop assumes you have excellent timing, you invest $(mortgage - rent), that investment gains enough to offset the dead weight loss from paying rent, and that the pop is so catastrophic that home prices revert to the mean... all while this catastrophic scenario doesn't hurt your income/investments such that you are well-placed to take advantage of the pop (as opposed to laid-off or suffering from 50% losses on your investments).