9 ms·

I see the sentiment here expressed, that Covid is far from over. To be honest, I stopped following news since being fully vaccinated some time ago, so I am kind

I see the sentiment here expressed, that Covid is far from over. To be honest, I stopped following news since being fully vaccinated some time ago, so I am kind of ignorant here. Is the main problem, the unvaccinated, or that the Delta (and co.) variants are still, too dangerous for vaccinated people? Or is it the fear, that they will get more dangerous?

Covzire 5y ago
For most people I know, other than mask requirements when going out certain places and the constant fear mongering on TV, COVID-19 is completely over and their lives are back to normal, complete with in person graduation parties this summer, going to ball games, family gatherings like it doesn't exist, etc. Other than both my parents last year (who recovered, didn't need hospitalization but were very ill for 2 weeks) I don't know anyone who has gotten seriously ill from it since.
- Steltek 5y ago
  For a balanced perspective and as a parent of ineligible children about to enter a new school year, Covid is far from over! We have no idea how long our school will be open or if we'll need to split attention between work and quarantined children at home. Similar to the evaporation of empathy for unvaxxed people who are admitted to the hospital, I'm concerned about a similar fatigue of tolerating working parents who are still partying like it's 2020, except we have no choice in the matter.
- bcrosby95 5y ago
  I have a friend that is an ER nurse that works at Cedars and she's ready to quit because of the attitude that "covid is over". She loves her job and helping people but the shitty attitudes of patients and people in general over this issue have caused her to rethink her life choices.
cmrdporcupine 5y ago
So here in Ontario where we're @ about 65% of the population totally vaccinated, today's new cases. Source: https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ontario https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ont... 10.25/100k among people who are unvaccinated. 6.5/100k among people who are partially vaccinated. 1.0/100k among people who are fully vaccinated. For hospitalization: 2.04/100k for unvaccinated, 1.11/100k for partially, 0.21/100k for vaccinated. For current ICU status: 1.6/100k for unvaccinated, 0.7/100k for partially, 0.05/100k for vaccinated. So basically the vaccines are really good, even against Delta. The disease is spreading primarily among the unvaccinated. And even those who get it who are vaccinated are on the whole not getting very sick. EDIT: For those wondering about natural immunity: only 3.67% of the Ontario population is counted as having had COVID, so I doubt it's a significant influence on those statistics. Granted, the first wave had poor testing, so I'm sure the number is a little higher, but I doubt it's more than 5%. EDIT: disregard the below comment about 10% ending up ICU; is incorrect because I was comparing the incremental new case count against current ICU status. I'll try to fix the # in a bit. But what's kind of crazy is seeing that those numbers seem to be saying that among the unvaccinated who get it that almost 10% of them are ending up in ICU. And when you consider that those are probably overwhelmingly young people (here 92% of seniors are fully vaccinated and 95% at least one dose) that's scary.
- seaman1921 5y ago
  thank you for the numbers! But i think you got them wrong > 10.25/100k among people who are unvaccinated that should be 10.25k - so your statement at the end about 10% ICU admissions does not hold.
  - seaman1921 5y ago
    and honestly given this huge error in your statement, I have lost confidence in your entire comment unless you are willing to share the source.
    - pfyon 5y ago
      The source is provided in the second paragraph.
- sreque 5y ago
  That should be a clue that something is wrong with your numbers. 10% of unvaccinated people getting COVID are absolutely not ending up in the ICU. It's not even remotely close. Also, as good as the vaccines are against delta, natural immunity is doing even better: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/dr-makary-says-natural-immunity-is-more-effective-then-vaccine-immunity/ar-AAMX3sM https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/dr-makary-says-natu... https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2021/7/20/22584134/whats-going-on-in-israels-outbreak-among-vaccinated-people https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2021/7/20/22584134/whats... https://arieh.substack.com/p/inside-israels-delta-outbreak-part https://arieh.substack.com/p/inside-israels-delta-outbreak-p...
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - cmrdporcupine 5y ago
    I'm counting ICU admissions among the unvaccinated separately, not against the population as a whole. When you consider that the majority of the population (65% total, 80% eligible) is vaccinated, then you have to separate the two groups because the outcomes are totally different. But I did spot something wrong with the way I'm counting, so yes the 10% is probably wrong. The reason is that the daily new case count given by the province is incremental, while the ICU count is current # of cases, not new admissions. So it's not possible to do the comparison in this way. I'd have to take a look at the current active case count by vaccination status, which is something I don't think the province is reporting.
Filligree 5y ago
> Is the main problem, the unvaccinated, or that the Delta (and co.) variants are still, too dangerous for vaccinated people? Or is it the fear, that they will get more dangerous? Lots of problems. - The virus causes serious sequela; people who have been infected may have life-long damage, and some of that damage looks really bad. There's little correlation between severity of the initial infection and severity of the damage, so we don't know if vaccines help either. - Not all people can be vaccinated. Young children can't be (their immune systems don't work the same way), people with some other underlying diseases can't be, etc. It's by no means just anti-vaxxers who are at risk. - People aren't dying enough. Historically, this sort of pandemic only ended once the people who were genetically at risk had all died, and we're not letting that happen. Now, to be very clear: I'm not saying we should! - Having a vaccinated population intermingling with an infections population means there's immense pressure on the virus to evade those vaccines. Many of the means by which it might do so will make it far more deadly to anyone who isn't vaccinated; Delta, for example, has adopted 'human wave tactics' to overwhelm the antibodies. However, this does mean that history is a poor guide to what might happen. Viruses don't generally have any reason to want their hosts dead, but there's also little evolutionary pressure for having that not happen. We're helpfully adding pressure that's well suited to make it more deadly. Yay.
sreque 5y ago
The main problem is that the U.S. federal government in particular has been pretending for a while that we can get to zero COVID, then blaming the unvaccinated when it doesn't happen. First, they said we need 50% vaccination to achieve, herd immunity. Then 60%. Then 70%. Then 80%. When things don't work out, they vilify and blame the unvaccinated. In reality, unvaccinated with natural immunity are likely more protected against the virus than the vaccinated. Israel's vaccination rates are among the highest in the world, and they've suffered the same delta outbreak as everyone else. Further, Israel has the most accurate and comprehensive data to date, and their numbers clearly show the naturally-immunized outperforming the vaccinated during their delta wave. They've since resorted to giving 3rd booster shots to the most vulnerable to compensate. https://arieh.substack.com/p/inside-israels-delta-outbreak-part https://arieh.substack.com/p/inside-israels-delta-outbreak-p... https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/israel-delivers-booster-shots-vaccine-people-60-79163582 https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/israel-delivers-boos... The real issue is that COVID is likely going to become endemic, and at some point the world needs to face this and move on. Unfortunately, our politicians have been lying to us and using COVID as a tool to gain political power for so long, that they are unwilling to admit they were wrong and to steer us in the right direction. The best we can do is elect these people out.
- tomrod 5y ago
  Please share some scientific citations showing natural immunity gives better protection than vaccines. This runs counter to what I'm hearing from my virologist sources.
  - criticaltinker 5y ago
    There is no scientific consensus that naturally acquired immunity gives better protection than vaccines. Two facts that are trending toward consensus in the scientific literature: A) Naturally infected individuals who recover will acquire robust and durable immunity [1][2] B) Natural infection induces an immune response that is mostly similar but slightly different than the immune response induced by vaccination. The primary differences can be summarized as: naturally infected individuals have nucleocapsid protein antibodies whereas vaccinated individuals do not, and vaccinated individuals have an immune response highly targeted toward the spike protein RBD. [3][4][5] In summary many people hypothesize that natural infection is better because it induces a broader and more balance antibody response, but the literature has not established consensus that this is necessarily "better" in terms of health outcomes for individuals. [1] SARS-CoV-2 infection induces long-lived bone marrow plasma cells in humans https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03647-4.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03647-4.pdf [2] Longitudinal analysis shows durable and broad immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection with persisting antibody responses and memory B and T cells https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-3791(21)00203-2 https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-37... [3] Rapid induction of antigen-specific CD4+ T cells is associated with coordinated humoral and cellular immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(21)00308-3 https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(21)00308-3 [4] Distinct SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Responses Elicited by Natural Infection and mRNA Vaccination https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.15.440089v4 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.15.440089v4 [5] Antibodies elicited by mRNA-1273 vaccination bind more broadly to the receptor binding domain than do those from SARS-CoV-2 infection https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34103407/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34103407/
tomrod 5y ago
(1) vaccinated people who get infected can infect others (this wasn't common before Delta) (2) Kids aren't being vaccinated, and masks have become political despite being the cheapest non-pharmaceutical intervention when most or all are masked (versus costs of shutting down, increasing ventilation, etc.). Some others also cannot be vaccinated due to health issues or availability (not in the US, it's widely available) (3) most, but not all, hospitalizations are among the unvaccinated.
tunesmith 5y ago
This is the best article I've recently read that describes what is currently going on: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/08/delta-has-changed-pandemic-endgame/619726/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/08/delta-has... (Pulitzer Prize winner for science communication)
- TeMPOraL 5y ago
  Thanks for the link! Lots of interesting details in there. I'll attempt a TL;DR of points most relevant for non-Americans (but please check the article for context, particularly on numbers, and link to sources): - Delta variant has ridiculously high R₀ - estimated to be between 5 and 9, where initial COVID-19 variants had it around 2 to 3. - Viruses spread nonuniformly. Old COVID-19 (R₀ = 2-3) tended to spread through super-spreading events (few people infecting a lot more at a time). R₀ of 5-9 implies Delta variant doesn't need super-spreading events. - This R₀ value also means it's not possible to eradicate the virus through vaccination or herd immunity - it's going to become endemic (which was always seen as a likely outcome anyway). - Current vaccines have proven to be effective against the Delta variant, by significantly reducing infections (0.01% to 0.29% chance of breakthrough disease), such infections showing symptoms (~88% percent effective) and severity of those symptoms if they show up, as well as preventing hospitalization (~96% effective against Delta; >95% of all COVID patients in US hospitals are unvaccinated). - There is evidence that vaccinated people can still transmit Delta, even if themselves they don't show symptoms. As expected, the virus seems to live shorter in the airways of vaccinated people. - Above and high R₀ mean Delta can spread even through highly-vaccinated communities. - Individually, for those who can get a shot, it's the best thing to do. Community-wise, we still need other precautions - like mask, widespread testing, hygiene, improvements in ventilation, to protect the vulnerable and slow the spread. - Vulnerable groups now include children under 12 - they're not eligible for vaccination, and there's a growing (though still small) amount of children suffering from long-COVID and MIS-C. - The end goal is still to slow the spread, to keep schools open and hospitals running, prevent healthcare personnel burnout, give time to develop better countermeasures and therapies, and let the economy slowly recover (instead of repeating 2020). Slowing the spread down also gives the virus less chances of mutating into a more problematic variant.
Florin_Andrei 5y ago
> I stopped following news since being fully vaccinated some time ago You're mostly fine, but you should not get disconnected completely from the news. Vaccine efficacy seems to wane slowly (faster for old people). Probably before the 1 year mark you should get a booster shot. The Delta variant is skewing some of the initial estimates, for the worse. The odds that you will catch the virus but have no symptoms or repercussions are still rather substantial, but definitely less than 50% (estimates vary). So there is a chance that you can still transmit it. Please wear a mask indoors in public places.
- sfink 5y ago
  I disagree. Before Delta, it was reasonable to resume almost all activities after being fully vaccinated. I don't believe that is true any longer. There are too many breakthrough cases, presumably driven by a much higher viral load that can overwhelm defenses. (The figures I have seen are 1000x in the upper respiratory tract of infected people; I haven't been following well enough to know what the increase is in actually expressed viruses. But it's going to be a lot, and viral load has proven to be a very significant factor for transmission.)
  - Florin_Andrei 5y ago
    Well, I made no predictions for the future. :) Vaccinated people are still mostly fine, even with Delta. You just don't get the close to 100% protection against severe disease, it's a little lower than that. It's still pretty good protection against severe cases (talking about mRNA vaccines). What's clearly disappointing is that the vaccines are not very good at preventing Delta from spreading. I have not seen good estimates, but the numbers floating around seem to indicate the vaccines (again, mRNA) are still at least 50% effective against spread, but nowhere near 100%. That's the biggest gap right now. It is true that viral loads are orders of magnitude higher with Delta. That is still compatible with all the statements above.
    - sfink 5y ago
      Sorry, I was only disagreeing with the summary "You're mostly fine [because you are fully vaccinated]". I agree with everything else you said. My only disagreement is that I read "you're mostly fine" implying that it's still ok to resume (or in this case continue) regular activities. In my opinion, that is definitely no longer true if you live in or near an area with overburdened hospitals, and at the very least changes your calculations in other areas because it's again important to reduce transmission. Before Delta, I felt like reducing transmission was good but not that important compared to the disadvantages of isolation. Delta shifted the tradeoff back in the other direction. How much is debatable, but personally I feel that quite a few activities that were ok, aren't anymore. I'm definitely still doing more than pre-vaccination, though.
red_trumpet 5y ago
Kind of a combination of Delta and unvaccinated. Delta is more infectious than previous variants., which means that we need more vaccinated people to reach herd immunity.

Covzire 5y ago

For most people I know, other than mask requirements when going out certain places and the constant fear mongering on TV, COVID-19 is completely over and their lives are back to normal, complete with in person graduation parties this summer, going to ball games, family gatherings like it doesn't exist, etc. Other than both my parents last year (who recovered, didn't need hospitalization but were very ill for 2 weeks) I don't know anyone who has gotten seriously ill from it since.

Steltek 5y ago
For a balanced perspective and as a parent of ineligible children about to enter a new school year, Covid is far from over! We have no idea how long our school will be open or if we'll need to split attention between work and quarantined children at home. Similar to the evaporation of empathy for unvaxxed people who are admitted to the hospital, I'm concerned about a similar fatigue of tolerating working parents who are still partying like it's 2020, except we have no choice in the matter.
bcrosby95 5y ago
I have a friend that is an ER nurse that works at Cedars and she's ready to quit because of the attitude that "covid is over". She loves her job and helping people but the shitty attitudes of patients and people in general over this issue have caused her to rethink her life choices.

cmrdporcupine 5y ago

So here in Ontario where we're @ about 65% of the population totally vaccinated, today's new cases. Source: https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ontario https://data.ontario.ca/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ont... 10.25/100k among people who are unvaccinated. 6.5/100k among people who are partially vaccinated. 1.0/100k among people who are fully vaccinated. For hospitalization: 2.04/100k for unvaccinated, 1.11/100k for partially, 0.21/100k for vaccinated. For current ICU status: 1.6/100k for unvaccinated, 0.7/100k for partially, 0.05/100k for vaccinated. So basically the vaccines are really good, even against Delta. The disease is spreading primarily among the unvaccinated. And even those who get it who are vaccinated are on the whole not getting very sick. EDIT: For those wondering about natural immunity: only 3.67% of the Ontario population is counted as having had COVID, so I doubt it's a significant influence on those statistics. Granted, the first wave had poor testing, so I'm sure the number is a little higher, but I doubt it's more than 5%. EDIT: disregard the below comment about 10% ending up ICU; is incorrect because I was comparing the incremental new case count against current ICU status. I'll try to fix the # in a bit. But what's kind of crazy is seeing that those numbers seem to be saying that among the unvaccinated who get it that almost 10% of them are ending up in ICU. And when you consider that those are probably overwhelmingly young people (here 92% of seniors are fully vaccinated and 95% at least one dose) that's scary.

seaman1921 5y ago
thank you for the numbers! But i think you got them wrong > 10.25/100k among people who are unvaccinated that should be 10.25k - so your statement at the end about 10% ICU admissions does not hold.
- seaman1921 5y ago
  and honestly given this huge error in your statement, I have lost confidence in your entire comment unless you are willing to share the source.
  - pfyon 5y ago
    The source is provided in the second paragraph.
sreque 5y ago
That should be a clue that something is wrong with your numbers. 10% of unvaccinated people getting COVID are absolutely not ending up in the ICU. It's not even remotely close. Also, as good as the vaccines are against delta, natural immunity is doing even better: https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/dr-makary-says-natural-immunity-is-more-effective-then-vaccine-immunity/ar-AAMX3sM https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/dr-makary-says-natu... https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2021/7/20/22584134/whats-going-on-in-israels-outbreak-among-vaccinated-people https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2021/7/20/22584134/whats... https://arieh.substack.com/p/inside-israels-delta-outbreak-part https://arieh.substack.com/p/inside-israels-delta-outbreak-p...
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- cmrdporcupine 5y ago
  I'm counting ICU admissions among the unvaccinated separately, not against the population as a whole. When you consider that the majority of the population (65% total, 80% eligible) is vaccinated, then you have to separate the two groups because the outcomes are totally different. But I did spot something wrong with the way I'm counting, so yes the 10% is probably wrong. The reason is that the daily new case count given by the province is incremental, while the ICU count is current # of cases, not new admissions. So it's not possible to do the comparison in this way. I'd have to take a look at the current active case count by vaccination status, which is something I don't think the province is reporting.

Filligree 5y ago

> Is the main problem, the unvaccinated, or that the Delta (and co.) variants are still, too dangerous for vaccinated people? Or is it the fear, that they will get more dangerous? Lots of problems. - The virus causes serious sequela; people who have been infected may have life-long damage, and some of that damage looks really bad. There's little correlation between severity of the initial infection and severity of the damage, so we don't know if vaccines help either. - Not all people can be vaccinated. Young children can't be (their immune systems don't work the same way), people with some other underlying diseases can't be, etc. It's by no means just anti-vaxxers who are at risk. - People aren't dying enough. Historically, this sort of pandemic only ended once the people who were genetically at risk had all died, and we're not letting that happen. Now, to be very clear: I'm not saying we should! - Having a vaccinated population intermingling with an infections population means there's immense pressure on the virus to evade those vaccines. Many of the means by which it might do so will make it far more deadly to anyone who isn't vaccinated; Delta, for example, has adopted 'human wave tactics' to overwhelm the antibodies. However, this does mean that history is a poor guide to what might happen. Viruses don't generally have any reason to want their hosts dead, but there's also little evolutionary pressure for having that not happen. We're helpfully adding pressure that's well suited to make it more deadly. Yay.

sreque 5y ago

The main problem is that the U.S. federal government in particular has been pretending for a while that we can get to zero COVID, then blaming the unvaccinated when it doesn't happen. First, they said we need 50% vaccination to achieve, herd immunity. Then 60%. Then 70%. Then 80%. When things don't work out, they vilify and blame the unvaccinated. In reality, unvaccinated with natural immunity are likely more protected against the virus than the vaccinated. Israel's vaccination rates are among the highest in the world, and they've suffered the same delta outbreak as everyone else. Further, Israel has the most accurate and comprehensive data to date, and their numbers clearly show the naturally-immunized outperforming the vaccinated during their delta wave. They've since resorted to giving 3rd booster shots to the most vulnerable to compensate. https://arieh.substack.com/p/inside-israels-delta-outbreak-part https://arieh.substack.com/p/inside-israels-delta-outbreak-p... https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/israel-delivers-booster-shots-vaccine-people-60-79163582 https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/israel-delivers-boos... The real issue is that COVID is likely going to become endemic, and at some point the world needs to face this and move on. Unfortunately, our politicians have been lying to us and using COVID as a tool to gain political power for so long, that they are unwilling to admit they were wrong and to steer us in the right direction. The best we can do is elect these people out.

tomrod 5y ago
Please share some scientific citations showing natural immunity gives better protection than vaccines. This runs counter to what I'm hearing from my virologist sources.
- criticaltinker 5y ago
  There is no scientific consensus that naturally acquired immunity gives better protection than vaccines. Two facts that are trending toward consensus in the scientific literature: A) Naturally infected individuals who recover will acquire robust and durable immunity [1][2] B) Natural infection induces an immune response that is mostly similar but slightly different than the immune response induced by vaccination. The primary differences can be summarized as: naturally infected individuals have nucleocapsid protein antibodies whereas vaccinated individuals do not, and vaccinated individuals have an immune response highly targeted toward the spike protein RBD. [3][4][5] In summary many people hypothesize that natural infection is better because it induces a broader and more balance antibody response, but the literature has not established consensus that this is necessarily "better" in terms of health outcomes for individuals. [1] SARS-CoV-2 infection induces long-lived bone marrow plasma cells in humans https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03647-4.pdf https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03647-4.pdf [2] Longitudinal analysis shows durable and broad immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection with persisting antibody responses and memory B and T cells https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-3791(21)00203-2 https://www.cell.com/cell-reports-medicine/fulltext/S2666-37... [3] Rapid induction of antigen-specific CD4+ T cells is associated with coordinated humoral and cellular immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(21)00308-3 https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(21)00308-3 [4] Distinct SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Responses Elicited by Natural Infection and mRNA Vaccination https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.15.440089v4 https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.15.440089v4 [5] Antibodies elicited by mRNA-1273 vaccination bind more broadly to the receptor binding domain than do those from SARS-CoV-2 infection https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34103407/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34103407/

tomrod 5y ago

(1) vaccinated people who get infected can infect others (this wasn't common before Delta) (2) Kids aren't being vaccinated, and masks have become political despite being the cheapest non-pharmaceutical intervention when most or all are masked (versus costs of shutting down, increasing ventilation, etc.). Some others also cannot be vaccinated due to health issues or availability (not in the US, it's widely available) (3) most, but not all, hospitalizations are among the unvaccinated.

tunesmith 5y ago

This is the best article I've recently read that describes what is currently going on: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/08/delta-has-changed-pandemic-endgame/619726/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/08/delta-has... (Pulitzer Prize winner for science communication)

TeMPOraL 5y ago
Thanks for the link! Lots of interesting details in there. I'll attempt a TL;DR of points most relevant for non-Americans (but please check the article for context, particularly on numbers, and link to sources): - Delta variant has ridiculously high R₀ - estimated to be between 5 and 9, where initial COVID-19 variants had it around 2 to 3. - Viruses spread nonuniformly. Old COVID-19 (R₀ = 2-3) tended to spread through super-spreading events (few people infecting a lot more at a time). R₀ of 5-9 implies Delta variant doesn't need super-spreading events. - This R₀ value also means it's not possible to eradicate the virus through vaccination or herd immunity - it's going to become endemic (which was always seen as a likely outcome anyway). - Current vaccines have proven to be effective against the Delta variant, by significantly reducing infections (0.01% to 0.29% chance of breakthrough disease), such infections showing symptoms (~88% percent effective) and severity of those symptoms if they show up, as well as preventing hospitalization (~96% effective against Delta; >95% of all COVID patients in US hospitals are unvaccinated). - There is evidence that vaccinated people can still transmit Delta, even if themselves they don't show symptoms. As expected, the virus seems to live shorter in the airways of vaccinated people. - Above and high R₀ mean Delta can spread even through highly-vaccinated communities. - Individually, for those who can get a shot, it's the best thing to do. Community-wise, we still need other precautions - like mask, widespread testing, hygiene, improvements in ventilation, to protect the vulnerable and slow the spread. - Vulnerable groups now include children under 12 - they're not eligible for vaccination, and there's a growing (though still small) amount of children suffering from long-COVID and MIS-C. - The end goal is still to slow the spread, to keep schools open and hospitals running, prevent healthcare personnel burnout, give time to develop better countermeasures and therapies, and let the economy slowly recover (instead of repeating 2020). Slowing the spread down also gives the virus less chances of mutating into a more problematic variant.

Florin_Andrei 5y ago

> I stopped following news since being fully vaccinated some time ago You're mostly fine, but you should not get disconnected completely from the news. Vaccine efficacy seems to wane slowly (faster for old people). Probably before the 1 year mark you should get a booster shot. The Delta variant is skewing some of the initial estimates, for the worse. The odds that you will catch the virus but have no symptoms or repercussions are still rather substantial, but definitely less than 50% (estimates vary). So there is a chance that you can still transmit it. Please wear a mask indoors in public places.

sfink 5y ago
I disagree. Before Delta, it was reasonable to resume almost all activities after being fully vaccinated. I don't believe that is true any longer. There are too many breakthrough cases, presumably driven by a much higher viral load that can overwhelm defenses. (The figures I have seen are 1000x in the upper respiratory tract of infected people; I haven't been following well enough to know what the increase is in actually expressed viruses. But it's going to be a lot, and viral load has proven to be a very significant factor for transmission.)
- Florin_Andrei 5y ago
  Well, I made no predictions for the future. :) Vaccinated people are still mostly fine, even with Delta. You just don't get the close to 100% protection against severe disease, it's a little lower than that. It's still pretty good protection against severe cases (talking about mRNA vaccines). What's clearly disappointing is that the vaccines are not very good at preventing Delta from spreading. I have not seen good estimates, but the numbers floating around seem to indicate the vaccines (again, mRNA) are still at least 50% effective against spread, but nowhere near 100%. That's the biggest gap right now. It is true that viral loads are orders of magnitude higher with Delta. That is still compatible with all the statements above.
  - sfink 5y ago
    Sorry, I was only disagreeing with the summary "You're mostly fine [because you are fully vaccinated]". I agree with everything else you said. My only disagreement is that I read "you're mostly fine" implying that it's still ok to resume (or in this case continue) regular activities. In my opinion, that is definitely no longer true if you live in or near an area with overburdened hospitals, and at the very least changes your calculations in other areas because it's again important to reduce transmission. Before Delta, I felt like reducing transmission was good but not that important compared to the disadvantages of isolation. Delta shifted the tradeoff back in the other direction. How much is debatable, but personally I feel that quite a few activities that were ok, aren't anymore. I'm definitely still doing more than pre-vaccination, though.

red_trumpet 5y ago

Kind of a combination of Delta and unvaccinated. Delta is more infectious than previous variants., which means that we need more vaccinated people to reach herd immunity.