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You can't use your examples of what hasn't been delivered yet without the things people said were impossible and have been delivered (reusable rockets, M3, etc.

You can't use your examples of what hasn't been delivered yet without the things people said were impossible and have been delivered (reusable rockets, M3, etc.). FWIW it's SolarCity, not SolarWinds. The SolarCity acquisition was also put to a shareholder vote. After the vote passed one had plenty of opportunity to sell their shares. Of course that would have been dumb given Tesla's and Musk's outstanding performance.

simiones 5y ago
Oops, you're right about SolarCity, sorry about that. However, you're glossing over some important details regarding the vote: Musk was supposed to recuse himself from the whole process, given the obvious conflict of interest, and he did not. Related to what has been delivered: reusable rockets are not entirely new, the Space Shuttle was a reusable vehicle that flew many times; various versions of reusable rockets have been tried since the 1990s, though none achieved orbit before SpaceX. The M3 is a car, not sure why anyone believed it couldn't be delivered. It was delayed to some extent though.
- optimiz3 5y ago
  > given the obvious conflict of interest, and he did not This is being litigated and there has been no finding of fact. Even if true, who cares? Tesla owes much of it's success to Musk's leadership. > reusable rockets are not entirely new Absurd position. Before SpaceX, reusable rockets were mostly concept and theory only. SpaceX made them practically viable and useful. A quick search of HN will show countless comments and skeptics of the M3 all through it's progress, just as people are skeptical of FSD development now.
  - simiones 5y ago
    > This is being litigated and there has been no finding of fact. Even if true, who cares? Tesla owes much of it's success to Musk's leadership. I can have an opinion on a civil case even before it has finished being litigated. And if he were to lose the litigation (it will almost certainly be settled out of court, but that's beside the point), I will feel entirely entitled to call him a fraudster, even if he's done a lot for Tesla. > Absurd position. Before SpaceX, reusable rockets were mostly concept and theory only. SpaceX made them practically viable and useful. Reusable stage 2 has existed for ~40 years, the Space shuttle. Reusable single-stage rockets with VTOL was in the advanced prototype stage in 1993-6, the McDonell-Douglas DCX and DC-XA, which flew up to 3.1km. In its initial version, it was successfully flown and recovered 7 times, up to 2.5km, even executing a successful abort after launch on one occasion. It was then upgraded and flew and was recovered an additional 3 times (reaching up to 3.1 km) until a fourth flight was not successfully recovered. For various reasons, no additional funding was provided. I don't mean to say SpaceX did nothing innovative here, they achieved a great success and pushed human engineering forward. But it's also wrong to say that we went from 0/theory only to reusable rockets thanks entirely to SpaceX. Regarding the Model 3, I believe skepticism was about timelines and potential popularity or production volume. I don't think you'll find anyone who didn't believe Tesla could come up with a third car at all. Of course, the popularity/production volume skeptics were proven entirely wrong. In contrast, FSD is a research-level project, with no reason to assume that it will be feasible in the next 100 years, nevermind 2 (Elon lies) or 10 (optimistic realists).

simiones 5y ago

Oops, you're right about SolarCity, sorry about that. However, you're glossing over some important details regarding the vote: Musk was supposed to recuse himself from the whole process, given the obvious conflict of interest, and he did not. Related to what has been delivered: reusable rockets are not entirely new, the Space Shuttle was a reusable vehicle that flew many times; various versions of reusable rockets have been tried since the 1990s, though none achieved orbit before SpaceX. The M3 is a car, not sure why anyone believed it couldn't be delivered. It was delayed to some extent though.

optimiz3 5y ago
> given the obvious conflict of interest, and he did not This is being litigated and there has been no finding of fact. Even if true, who cares? Tesla owes much of it's success to Musk's leadership. > reusable rockets are not entirely new Absurd position. Before SpaceX, reusable rockets were mostly concept and theory only. SpaceX made them practically viable and useful. A quick search of HN will show countless comments and skeptics of the M3 all through it's progress, just as people are skeptical of FSD development now.
- simiones 5y ago
  > This is being litigated and there has been no finding of fact. Even if true, who cares? Tesla owes much of it's success to Musk's leadership. I can have an opinion on a civil case even before it has finished being litigated. And if he were to lose the litigation (it will almost certainly be settled out of court, but that's beside the point), I will feel entirely entitled to call him a fraudster, even if he's done a lot for Tesla. > Absurd position. Before SpaceX, reusable rockets were mostly concept and theory only. SpaceX made them practically viable and useful. Reusable stage 2 has existed for ~40 years, the Space shuttle. Reusable single-stage rockets with VTOL was in the advanced prototype stage in 1993-6, the McDonell-Douglas DCX and DC-XA, which flew up to 3.1km. In its initial version, it was successfully flown and recovered 7 times, up to 2.5km, even executing a successful abort after launch on one occasion. It was then upgraded and flew and was recovered an additional 3 times (reaching up to 3.1 km) until a fourth flight was not successfully recovered. For various reasons, no additional funding was provided. I don't mean to say SpaceX did nothing innovative here, they achieved a great success and pushed human engineering forward. But it's also wrong to say that we went from 0/theory only to reusable rockets thanks entirely to SpaceX. Regarding the Model 3, I believe skepticism was about timelines and potential popularity or production volume. I don't think you'll find anyone who didn't believe Tesla could come up with a third car at all. Of course, the popularity/production volume skeptics were proven entirely wrong. In contrast, FSD is a research-level project, with no reason to assume that it will be feasible in the next 100 years, nevermind 2 (Elon lies) or 10 (optimistic realists).