3 ms·

Starship seems really promising, though, making amazing progress in record time. I'm really optimistic about SpaceX, that whole company seems to be aligned towa

Starship seems really promising, though, making amazing progress in record time. I'm really optimistic about SpaceX, that whole company seems to be aligned toward one goal only, getting people on mars, if I had any expertise in that area I would sign up in a second.

6d6b73 5y ago
First "starship" launch will end with Big Bada Boom and will end SpaceX.
- sudhirj 5y ago
  So there's already been 10 or more of them that exploded, no? You mean the first crewed launch? That'll probably the 100th actual launch, with the tens of failures in the beginning and a streak of successes that's convincing enough to put people on. Had the same problem with Falcon as well, but we've already forgotten. All the initial rockets exploded, but now we've just gotten used to them landing perfectly.
  - 6d6b73 5y ago
    Starship as defined on spacex.com: SpaceX’s Starship spacecraft and Super Heavy rocket (collectively referred to as Starship). So far there were no flights with both SN and SH as one ship.
- polytely 5y ago
  From what I've seen they think its like a 50/50 chance of the first starship blowing up, but they are already building the next couple ones, so they are ready for that. They are not just building one rocket, they are building a rocket assembly line and it seems like they have cracked the code on that. Not a chance one explosion will end spaceX, I'm not sure how you could seriously think that if you have been following the development.
  - 6d6b73 5y ago
    Starship explosion could damage/destroy large part of the "starbase" and cause significant damage in Bocca Chica. It will also have terrible impact on the wildlife refuge that's there. In addition to that Musk's Starlink satellite will cause Kessler Syndrome. Both of these events could not only finish Spacex but will affect space exploration for decades.
simiones 5y ago
Mars is a fools' goal, only really interesting as a point of pride. There will very obviously not be any kind of Mars "colony" in our lifetimes, and there are good reasons to believe that none will ever exist - there are too little resources on Mars, and too harsh conditions, for it to make any kind of sense. Apart from that, there are chances that Spaceship will be a good product, probably making it cheaper to put stuff in orbit than it is today. On the other hand, this may wildly accelerate problems with space junk, especially if the irresponsible plans for putting more than twice the amount of objects in LEO are allowed to go through.
- borkyborkbork 5y ago
  You seem so sure of yourself.
  - simiones 5y ago
    I'm not sure of myself, I'm quite sure of our collective inability to do anything as complex (and expensive and wasteful of resources) as a Mars colony. Of course, time will tell.
- skissane 5y ago
  > There will very obviously not be any kind of Mars "colony" in our lifetimes Define "Mars colony". A thriving metropolis with millions of residents? Or a permanently crewed research station with a few dozen staff? The former is not going to happen in our lifetimes. The later isn't certain but I think it has some chance of happening. But Musk is going to try to set up the later and call it a "Mars colony", with the declared ambition of eventually developing it into the former. Aspirational naming. > there are too little resources on Mars, and too harsh conditions, for it to make any kind of sense. In 2021, Musk has a net worth of $170 billion. He's only 50, he could easily live for another 30 or 40 years. It is entirely plausible that by the time he dies, he will be a multi-trillionaire. To whom, or to what, is he going to leave his trillions? (Heck, forty years from now, quadrillionaires could even be a thing, and old man Musk could be one of them.) He might leave them to a charitable foundation dedicated to paying for the colonisation of Mars. If that happens – well, even if you are right that colonising Mars is pointless, if a multi-trillion, or even multi-quadrillion, dollar foundation is willing to pay for it, it may actually happen, no matter how pointless it may be. Another possible scenario: sometime in the next few decades, the US successfully lands on Mars, and sets up a modestly sized US-led international research base. The US government continues its policy of excluding China, so China responds by landing on Mars independently and establishing their own competing Mars base. China and the US then become trapped in a new space race, in which each seeks to outdo the other with the size and capabilities of their respective Mars bases, not motivated by any practical economic or military benefits, but simply by national pride and prestige. A US-led Mars base could grow into thousands of people, and US Congress might become politically locked into paying for them out of the federal budget, even if their existence doesn't actually benefit the average US citizen in any tangible way. (The above two scenarios are not mutually exclusive, it is possible both might happen at the same time.)

6d6b73 5y ago

First "starship" launch will end with Big Bada Boom and will end SpaceX.

sudhirj 5y ago
So there's already been 10 or more of them that exploded, no? You mean the first crewed launch? That'll probably the 100th actual launch, with the tens of failures in the beginning and a streak of successes that's convincing enough to put people on. Had the same problem with Falcon as well, but we've already forgotten. All the initial rockets exploded, but now we've just gotten used to them landing perfectly.
- 6d6b73 5y ago
  Starship as defined on spacex.com: SpaceX’s Starship spacecraft and Super Heavy rocket (collectively referred to as Starship). So far there were no flights with both SN and SH as one ship.
polytely 5y ago
From what I've seen they think its like a 50/50 chance of the first starship blowing up, but they are already building the next couple ones, so they are ready for that. They are not just building one rocket, they are building a rocket assembly line and it seems like they have cracked the code on that. Not a chance one explosion will end spaceX, I'm not sure how you could seriously think that if you have been following the development.
- 6d6b73 5y ago
  Starship explosion could damage/destroy large part of the "starbase" and cause significant damage in Bocca Chica. It will also have terrible impact on the wildlife refuge that's there. In addition to that Musk's Starlink satellite will cause Kessler Syndrome. Both of these events could not only finish Spacex but will affect space exploration for decades.

simiones 5y ago

Mars is a fools' goal, only really interesting as a point of pride. There will very obviously not be any kind of Mars "colony" in our lifetimes, and there are good reasons to believe that none will ever exist - there are too little resources on Mars, and too harsh conditions, for it to make any kind of sense. Apart from that, there are chances that Spaceship will be a good product, probably making it cheaper to put stuff in orbit than it is today. On the other hand, this may wildly accelerate problems with space junk, especially if the irresponsible plans for putting more than twice the amount of objects in LEO are allowed to go through.

borkyborkbork 5y ago
You seem so sure of yourself.
- simiones 5y ago
  I'm not sure of myself, I'm quite sure of our collective inability to do anything as complex (and expensive and wasteful of resources) as a Mars colony. Of course, time will tell.
skissane 5y ago
> There will very obviously not be any kind of Mars "colony" in our lifetimes Define "Mars colony". A thriving metropolis with millions of residents? Or a permanently crewed research station with a few dozen staff? The former is not going to happen in our lifetimes. The later isn't certain but I think it has some chance of happening. But Musk is going to try to set up the later and call it a "Mars colony", with the declared ambition of eventually developing it into the former. Aspirational naming. > there are too little resources on Mars, and too harsh conditions, for it to make any kind of sense. In 2021, Musk has a net worth of $170 billion. He's only 50, he could easily live for another 30 or 40 years. It is entirely plausible that by the time he dies, he will be a multi-trillionaire. To whom, or to what, is he going to leave his trillions? (Heck, forty years from now, quadrillionaires could even be a thing, and old man Musk could be one of them.) He might leave them to a charitable foundation dedicated to paying for the colonisation of Mars. If that happens – well, even if you are right that colonising Mars is pointless, if a multi-trillion, or even multi-quadrillion, dollar foundation is willing to pay for it, it may actually happen, no matter how pointless it may be. Another possible scenario: sometime in the next few decades, the US successfully lands on Mars, and sets up a modestly sized US-led international research base. The US government continues its policy of excluding China, so China responds by landing on Mars independently and establishing their own competing Mars base. China and the US then become trapped in a new space race, in which each seeks to outdo the other with the size and capabilities of their respective Mars bases, not motivated by any practical economic or military benefits, but simply by national pride and prestige. A US-led Mars base could grow into thousands of people, and US Congress might become politically locked into paying for them out of the federal budget, even if their existence doesn't actually benefit the average US citizen in any tangible way. (The above two scenarios are not mutually exclusive, it is possible both might happen at the same time.)