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To think that on Autonomy Day in 2019, Musk promised that Tesla will "have over a million robo-taxis on the road" in 2020 [1]. Musk is a visionary that has del

To think that on Autonomy Day in 2019, Musk promised that Tesla will "have over a million robo-taxis on the road" in 2020 [1]. Musk is a visionary that has delivered amazing promises. That doesn't mean all of his promises are amazing. Some are quite clearly BS (for example, I don't think robotaxis are impossible in general, but announcing a million of them on a 15-month time frame absolutely was). [1] eg: https://www.engadget.com/2019-04-22-tesla-elon-musk-self-driving-robo-taxi.html?guccounter=1 https://www.engadget.com/2019-04-22-tesla-elon-musk-self-dri...

cogman10 5y ago
Yeah, I don't think it's possible with the current hardware. The best Tesla can hope for is Level 3, mainly due to the lack of redundancy.
simiones 5y ago
Musk is a fraudster who has consistently lied to investors and the public about timelines and features - FSD, SolarWinds solar tiles, the robotaxis, "founding" Tesla, "founding" PayPal, the Vegas "loop", cheaper tunnels, hyperloop, NeuraLink brain-computer videogames, flying cars, the cave submarine, turbines on cars, "more efficient" batteries and on and on and on. There are a few lies that have not yet been proven lies - the 40k satellites or the Mars settlement or the $2M rocket, for example - but I have faith that they will also prove to be lies in time. His only contributions have been early investment in Tesla and hiring the right people for SpaceX to achieve some decent cost savings and vertical landing on Earth. It's definitely not nothing, but it really shouldn't make anyone believe 99% of what he says, or consider him some kind of genius.
- polytely 5y ago
  Starship seems really promising, though, making amazing progress in record time. I'm really optimistic about SpaceX, that whole company seems to be aligned toward one goal only, getting people on mars, if I had any expertise in that area I would sign up in a second.
  - 6d6b73 5y ago
    First "starship" launch will end with Big Bada Boom and will end SpaceX.
    - sudhirj 5y ago
      So there's already been 10 or more of them that exploded, no? You mean the first crewed launch? That'll probably the 100th actual launch, with the tens of failures in the beginning and a streak of successes that's convincing enough to put people on. Had the same problem with Falcon as well, but we've already forgotten. All the initial rockets exploded, but now we've just gotten used to them landing perfectly.
      - 6d6b73 5y ago
        Starship as defined on spacex.com: SpaceX’s Starship spacecraft and Super Heavy rocket (collectively referred to as Starship). So far there were no flights with both SN and SH as one ship.
    - polytely 5y ago
      From what I've seen they think its like a 50/50 chance of the first starship blowing up, but they are already building the next couple ones, so they are ready for that. They are not just building one rocket, they are building a rocket assembly line and it seems like they have cracked the code on that. Not a chance one explosion will end spaceX, I'm not sure how you could seriously think that if you have been following the development.
      - 6d6b73 5y ago
        Starship explosion could damage/destroy large part of the "starbase" and cause significant damage in Bocca Chica. It will also have terrible impact on the wildlife refuge that's there. In addition to that Musk's Starlink satellite will cause Kessler Syndrome. Both of these events could not only finish Spacex but will affect space exploration for decades.
  - 5y ago
- AtlasBarfed 5y ago
  I thought shorter astroturfing was a 2020 thing
- flixic 5y ago
  He tends to share his ideas publicly before they are "verified with reality", which leads to a lot of them being late, over-promised under-delivered, etc. But if you take his statements as "thinking aloud", I much prefer this mode of operation. On the other end of the spectrum is Apple, with zero "thinking aloud" or sharing _anything_ until it's ready to ship. It's ok... but much less fun.
  - simiones 5y ago
    These are not random ideas that he throws around, these are all examples of products he has held massive press conferences for, announcing them with fanfare, and referencing them again and again in public speeches. He really does seem to believe in some of them, even some that they are quite obviously impossible - casting serious doubts on his intelligence or understanding of science (which is not surprising, given he only has an undergraduate degree in Physics as science credentials).
  - RivieraKid 5y ago
    This is a very naive take. There are several examples of him being intentionally dishonest, e.g. the funding secured thing. He's a sociopathic narcissist.
  - ckastner 5y ago
    "One million robotaxis in 15 months" is not thinking aloud, it's a very concrete prognosis.
    - flixic 5y ago
      What I mean to say is that you should take what he's saying as "talking aloud" and not as any concrete prognosis, even if he makes it sound that way. Then it's fun.
  - nullifidian 5y ago
    >It's ok... >thinking aloud He's a CEO and is legally bound to not lie or mislead the investors though. For example Skreli is in part serving a federal sentence for lying to the investors who didn't lose any money.
- bob33212 5y ago
  I'm assuming your Twitter feed has become full of information supporting the idea the Elon is a fraud. You are falling into the same feedback loop that people who think Trump really won and the people who think that White people should apologize for existing. You need to create new social media accounts and try to look for information supporting the opposite idea. I'm not suggesting that Elon is totally honest about everything he says, but there is more to him than what you seem to have heard. I'm saying this to help you, because, you have been misinformed by these feedback loop algorithms. If you keep your identity tied to this idea that Elon is a total fraud you are going to become more and more upset overtime as the evidence to the contrary accumulates.
  - simiones 5y ago
    Thank you for your concern, but I have read plenty about his successes or failures to make up my mind. Much of this has been by virtue of listening to him directly, and looking at the ways he intentionally manipulates opinion of himself.
    - bob33212 5y ago
      OK, well best of luck.
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 5y ago
  "It's not a lie if you believe it." - George Costanza
loceng 5y ago
That could have literally been the command from above - "I want over a million robo-taxis on the road" - and then that trickles down into the company.

cogman10 5y ago

Yeah, I don't think it's possible with the current hardware. The best Tesla can hope for is Level 3, mainly due to the lack of redundancy.

simiones 5y ago

Musk is a fraudster who has consistently lied to investors and the public about timelines and features - FSD, SolarWinds solar tiles, the robotaxis, "founding" Tesla, "founding" PayPal, the Vegas "loop", cheaper tunnels, hyperloop, NeuraLink brain-computer videogames, flying cars, the cave submarine, turbines on cars, "more efficient" batteries and on and on and on. There are a few lies that have not yet been proven lies - the 40k satellites or the Mars settlement or the $2M rocket, for example - but I have faith that they will also prove to be lies in time. His only contributions have been early investment in Tesla and hiring the right people for SpaceX to achieve some decent cost savings and vertical landing on Earth. It's definitely not nothing, but it really shouldn't make anyone believe 99% of what he says, or consider him some kind of genius.

polytely 5y ago
Starship seems really promising, though, making amazing progress in record time. I'm really optimistic about SpaceX, that whole company seems to be aligned toward one goal only, getting people on mars, if I had any expertise in that area I would sign up in a second.
- 6d6b73 5y ago
  First "starship" launch will end with Big Bada Boom and will end SpaceX.
  - sudhirj 5y ago
    So there's already been 10 or more of them that exploded, no? You mean the first crewed launch? That'll probably the 100th actual launch, with the tens of failures in the beginning and a streak of successes that's convincing enough to put people on. Had the same problem with Falcon as well, but we've already forgotten. All the initial rockets exploded, but now we've just gotten used to them landing perfectly.
    - 6d6b73 5y ago
      Starship as defined on spacex.com: SpaceX’s Starship spacecraft and Super Heavy rocket (collectively referred to as Starship). So far there were no flights with both SN and SH as one ship.
  - polytely 5y ago
    From what I've seen they think its like a 50/50 chance of the first starship blowing up, but they are already building the next couple ones, so they are ready for that. They are not just building one rocket, they are building a rocket assembly line and it seems like they have cracked the code on that. Not a chance one explosion will end spaceX, I'm not sure how you could seriously think that if you have been following the development.
    - 6d6b73 5y ago
      Starship explosion could damage/destroy large part of the "starbase" and cause significant damage in Bocca Chica. It will also have terrible impact on the wildlife refuge that's there. In addition to that Musk's Starlink satellite will cause Kessler Syndrome. Both of these events could not only finish Spacex but will affect space exploration for decades.
- 5y ago
AtlasBarfed 5y ago
I thought shorter astroturfing was a 2020 thing
flixic 5y ago
He tends to share his ideas publicly before they are "verified with reality", which leads to a lot of them being late, over-promised under-delivered, etc. But if you take his statements as "thinking aloud", I much prefer this mode of operation. On the other end of the spectrum is Apple, with zero "thinking aloud" or sharing _anything_ until it's ready to ship. It's ok... but much less fun.
- simiones 5y ago
  These are not random ideas that he throws around, these are all examples of products he has held massive press conferences for, announcing them with fanfare, and referencing them again and again in public speeches. He really does seem to believe in some of them, even some that they are quite obviously impossible - casting serious doubts on his intelligence or understanding of science (which is not surprising, given he only has an undergraduate degree in Physics as science credentials).
- RivieraKid 5y ago
  This is a very naive take. There are several examples of him being intentionally dishonest, e.g. the funding secured thing. He's a sociopathic narcissist.
- ckastner 5y ago
  "One million robotaxis in 15 months" is not thinking aloud, it's a very concrete prognosis.
  - flixic 5y ago
    What I mean to say is that you should take what he's saying as "talking aloud" and not as any concrete prognosis, even if he makes it sound that way. Then it's fun.
- nullifidian 5y ago
  >It's ok... >thinking aloud He's a CEO and is legally bound to not lie or mislead the investors though. For example Skreli is in part serving a federal sentence for lying to the investors who didn't lose any money.
bob33212 5y ago
I'm assuming your Twitter feed has become full of information supporting the idea the Elon is a fraud. You are falling into the same feedback loop that people who think Trump really won and the people who think that White people should apologize for existing. You need to create new social media accounts and try to look for information supporting the opposite idea. I'm not suggesting that Elon is totally honest about everything he says, but there is more to him than what you seem to have heard. I'm saying this to help you, because, you have been misinformed by these feedback loop algorithms. If you keep your identity tied to this idea that Elon is a total fraud you are going to become more and more upset overtime as the evidence to the contrary accumulates.
- simiones 5y ago
  Thank you for your concern, but I have read plenty about his successes or failures to make up my mind. Much of this has been by virtue of listening to him directly, and looking at the ways he intentionally manipulates opinion of himself.
  - bob33212 5y ago
    OK, well best of luck.
2OEH8eoCRo0 5y ago
"It's not a lie if you believe it." - George Costanza

loceng 5y ago

That could have literally been the command from above - "I want over a million robo-taxis on the road" - and then that trickles down into the company.