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Show HN: Duedilly.io – Accuracy of Reddit Trading Ideas

181 points by duedillyio 5y ago

duedillyio 5y ago
Built my first "real" webapp to help retail traders figure out whether to trust the people posting trading ideas on Reddit. It links each post to its performance and lets you see the prior trading ideas suggested by each person. Not much of a developer but I've got several years of experience in the quant finance industry. Seeing people talk about plowing their rent money into an idea when the ideas are hardly financially sound was really frustrating. At the end of the day, it was my non-technical friends and people like them being sucked into these pump and dump schemes. Happy to get any feedback. Here's an example page if you're not sure what to click: https://duedilly.io/asset/ZOM https://duedilly.io/asset/ZOM
dogma1138 5y ago
Whats the time scale you are looking at to estimate accuracy? It seems to be real/near real time which can skew things from what idea turned out to be right to what idea got the biggest amount of suckers to buy into a pump and dump scheme since the stonks/wsb subreddits now have enough members to push the needle especially on relatively low trade volume securities and stocks.
- duedillyio 5y ago
  I consider 1 week, 1 month, and 1 year horizons and report all 3. For people pushing things around you expect to see it more on these short/medium term horizons. example: https://duedilly.io/asset/SAVA/ https://duedilly.io/asset/SAVA/
PragmaticPulp 5y ago
Fun tool. Thanks for putting it together. It's interesting to crawl through some of the entries from leaderboard people. It seems like most of their bets are neutral or slightly random, but then they'll be propped up with a lucky call on GME from January or some other single-stock pick. For example, this poster apparently just spammed GME posts during the run-up and got lucky, but if you followed their other calls (REAL and AI) you'd be deep in the red. Their GME spam puts them in the top 3 medium traders with a 236% 1-month return, but everything else they've posted has performed terribly: https://duedilly.io/trader/r.Ottikarottiii/ https://duedilly.io/trader/r.Ottikarottiii/ It would almost be more helpful if there was an option to subtract out the well-known meme stocks like GME. Some of these leaderboard entries have not so great results for their own calls, but they happened to post about GME at just the right time to dominate their average.
- cinntaile 5y ago
  I'd say that's how most people outperform, they get a lucky break with a stock that goes x10 or something.
  - icedchai 5y ago
    AMD really sent my account to the moon. HUBS too.
  - geoduck14 5y ago
    Yeah, the pretty much sums up my stock performance over the past decade
  - kqr 5y ago
    I don't know who you include in "most people", but from what I understand of the professionals, that's not at all how making money works. If what you describe happens, it means the portfolio risk dial is set way too high. The mistaken idea behind that is that people think risk and reward covaries. It does for single wagers, but when assessing profitability of investments, we must look at long term growth. When we do that, there's a risk level that maximises growth. Lower risk than that gives you slower growth but with less variability. Higher risk is just stupid because it gives you slower growth and increases your risk of ruin (by getting variability over levels supported by your capital.) ---- People who actually make money on this are good at inventing their own insurance in ways that lowers their risk significantly. They make very specific, relatively independent bets that aren't just proxies for "exposure to the market".
    - namanyayg 5y ago
      Interesting analysis and I think I've reached similiar conclusions when talking to my friends and associates and seeing their results over the last ~5y; high risk leads to lot of capital loss often for them. I usually have been playing low-risk investments and want to change that, any articles or advice to make independent high risk bets that actually end up lowering overall risk?
somebodythere 5y ago
Cool website. Percentage is a good place to start, but if you want to get closer to the alpha of a given idea, dividing the percentage return by its beta to the benchmark, then subtracting the return of the benchmark over the same period will get you closer.
- dmos62 5y ago
  I find this formula unintuitive (for starters I had to google what alpha and beta was). Does it have a name so I can look it up?
- duedillyio 5y ago
  I did consider beta adjusting performance and may do this in the future -- it does require more infra set up (ex. computing historical betas for these posts back in time). Since my target demographic in this case was people on Reddit following trading advice I wanted to keep things straightforward first and slowly over time introduce those educational components to get it closer to how the industry thinks about it.
Jorge1o1 5y ago
This was really fun to browse! Consider adding a section for “worst traders” and “worst stocks” just for fun. For example, CLOV is a wsb matador.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- duedillyio 5y ago
  Thanks! Yeah, I don't want to put anyone down with the worst traders page but worst stocks could be fun, especially if it's done as a way to bring people together around their losses and better inform themselves on what to look out for.
worik 5y ago
Mēh So long as you only use money to loose, never use margin... Trading stocks is not a way to make money. Want to make money? Invest in yourself and work for it. Stocks can be a part of your portfolio - but do not take investment advice from Hacker News commenters!
- smabie 5y ago
  What if you're a trader and investing in yourself means trading?
SmellTheGlove 5y ago
Does the r. in front of everyone's name stand for Robot? This is cool. If you follow /r/wsb, you know half the damn sub has the idea to create this site once a week. But you actually did it. Great work.
- duedillyio 5y ago
  So this is a quick hack -- I have a user registration system but I didn't want people parking on reddit usernames. For any user that gets scraped from Reddit I add a "r." in front of their username. The '.' character is invalid in usernames that are user-created. If you sign in with Reddit, you can change the username to whatever. Thanks! I'm unable to post it there unfortunately (or really anywhere on stocks subreddits) due to moderation rules around promoting webapps but I've seen a lot of those posts.
  - SmellTheGlove 5y ago
    That is a cool idea. Also, posting it there is going to jack your hosting costs immediately, haha. But why not post it - what's the worst they can do, ban you for posting something useful?
BrianOnHN 5y ago
Maybe this isn't ideal for the homepage > Okay Retards, I will make this long because apparently you Apes seem to like long posts, even when a YOLO opportunity like this But what do I know, I'm just a triggered liberal. Edit: I understand how they use the "r" word on WSB as it's been in the mainstream news for a year. I'm saying that it reflects poorly on a business, signaling that it failed due diligence, on there homepage of all places.
- toomuchtodo 5y ago
  This is the dialect of /r/wallstreetbets. Apes strong together and all that jazz. To call someone a retard is a term of endearment, or a (not so) secret handshake. (fellow gambling degenerate)
  - tclancy 5y ago
    That’s lovely. Bad news is a bunch of edgelords don’t get to dictate how language is used or what it means.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - adamdusty 5y ago
      Among themselves? Why wouldn't they? No one is obligated to participate.
      - tclancy 5y ago
        To every smoothbrain that responded thusly, if you only use a word in private amongst certain other people, then it feels a lot like we both know that’s a word you shouldn’t use.
        tux1968 5y ago
        Like scientists, doctors, and programmers who only use certain words in the company of their fellow practitioners? Or say any number of fan bases (think Anime, or personality-driven youtube channels) that have their own lingo?
andrewmcwatters 5y ago
The best traders don’t share their edge.
- exdsq 5y ago
  Nowadays the best performing traders share their edge to make their edge. Pump and dumping small market-cap cryptos can lead to insane ROI if you're seen as 'the best trader' because them jumping in is how you get that nickname in the first place.
  - smabie 5y ago
    Eh don't really agree with this. it's just that you don't hear about the ones who keep their heads down and grind unless you are in/very close to the industry.
- paulpauper 5y ago
  Typically there is more money to be made selling subscriptions than trading unless u are a major hedge fund. Desperate ppl look for any sort of guidance even if it does not work well.
  - smabie 5y ago
    If you have edge it is almost always more profitable to trade than to sell advice.
    - paulpauper 5y ago
      if you can get 1000 subs at $100/month that is top .5% wealth without the risk of trading
      - sydthrowaway 5y ago
        www.alphahub.us
- dmos62 5y ago
tinyhouse 5y ago
Nice idea! One problem is that most original posts are removed.
paulpauper 5y ago
3x tech etfs are pretty good.. so are the usual fang stocks. Some ppl on that sub have demonstrative skill but like finding diamonds in the rough. They tend to hone in on maybe a dozen stocks that have been shown to have consistent returns such as Amazon and Facebook. Gl, ymmv
throwaway888abc 5y ago
Great project. If you have that data too: it would be great to also display the losing trades and portfolio + include it on leaderboard. Also, winning vs losing trades. For sake of soul (and wallet) of Average Trader Joe
bhelkey 5y ago
Neat idea! A couple of nits: Looking at the recommended page duedilly.io/asset/ZOM "Posts that are not bold have been removed/deleted on Reddit" -> "Posts that are bold have been removed/deleted on Reddit" DD is not defined (one would have to go to the main page) and it is not a well known acronym.
- Galanwe 5y ago
  > DD is not defined (one would have to go to the main page) and it is not a well known acronym. Worst, in the industry its often an acronym for "drawdown". I was quite confused until I saw the definition DD=due diligence on the homepage.
  - duedillyio 5y ago
    I've been in the industry for several years and had the same reaction when I first starting seeing wallstreetbets posts. For a while I even thought it stood for "double down" when it seemed like these were encouraging posts. Good point from you and the parent commenter -- I'll make that clearer.
hellbannedguy 5y ago
"How it works: to be eligible for the leaderboard, traders must have at least 5 live posts (i.e. non-duplicated or grayed out on their page) and have posted about at least 3 unique tickers. The horizons used are 1 week for short term, 1 month for medium term, and 1 year for long term -- however, these are simply measurements and do not reflect the trades that these individuals actually did. It simply mimicks a simple strategy of trading when they post." 1. I would like to know exactly how long a user has been on Twitter. I would like to filter out all users that joined after GME rebellion. It might help identify the hedge fund guys whom are their just to pump, and dump? I am not that familiar with Twitter's api, but felt after the publicity, most professionals would ruin the group.
rebelos 5y ago
If you're looking to work with someone on this, reach out here: revoh98186 at kibwot.com (temporary email). I'm a fullstack dev with an interest in finance/trading and scouting for a side project.
throwthere 5y ago
I took a gander-- the leaderboard lists 10 people making better than a 17% weekly return (3500% annualized). After extensive work cross-referencing the list with this one [1] my team was unable to find 10 candidates. Another explanation of outsized returns was deemed remotely possible but downvoted into oblivion [2]. I think it's really enticing to think you can make it rich by reading something on Reddit and doing about as much research as you'd do before buying a refrigerator. [1] https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/ https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/ [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem
- quickthrower2 5y ago
  Hey there is quite a bit to think of before buying a fridge!
  - unixhero 5y ago
    Measurements Read reviews Noise Colour Price The list goes on and on!
dimitry12 5y ago
Looks very interesting! Do you classify DD as bullish or bearish using the body of the post or the title, just like the ticker? Awesome "About" section, it answered all my other questions.
- RhodesianHunter 5y ago
  Most of what I'm seeing listed as DD from the top traders is just news. Things like "TICKER up 16% after hours as XYZ happens!"
- duedillyio 5y ago
  So 99% of DDs are long and I didn't want to get sidetracked trying to build a guessing system since many Reddit posts delete their contents (the titles are not removable which helps me). For that reason I auto-classify as bullish but there's a report page that anyone can click to report mis-classified posts. Thank you!
  - dimitry12 5y ago
    That makes sense. Thank you!
bigcloud1299 5y ago
Does anyone know if something like this for Twitter exist ?
- duedillyio 5y ago
  I would like to open it up more generically to allow for sharing any ideas (like from not Reddit) -- the platform isn't tied to it. The big issue for me is accountability. People make public claims and delete the things that didn't work out, so a lot of platforms can be gamed. On Reddit, the titles of posts can never be deleted so that provides one way to verify it. I think that's valuable if you can start auto-adding tweets/blog posts/reddit so people don't mess with their records.
  - janmo 5y ago
    If you delete your own post it will show up as "Posted by u/[deleted]" If a mod deletes it, it will still be linked to your account. So it is possible to fake the records.
challenger-derp 5y ago
Interesting social experiment that feels like it has the unethical potential to super-charge pump and dump schemes by lending credence to social media trading ideas and aggregating the information in one place. Inexperienced investors/traders browsing this website might get the impression that it's indeed profitable to be "part of the pump". Perhaps consider going further back in time, before GME. GME-like events have occurred, but to a smaller extent, prior to GME. Perhaps consider including posts of people who lost money buying at the top. Few posts are of this nature, but they occur when previously popular tickers dip. Perhaps include past trader performance. Having been on r/WSB years prior to GME, I've noticed that the _active_ community tends to be made of newly joined users. r/WSB has a huge subscriber base (reddit accounts who have "joined" the subreddit) but far fewer daily active users. Pulled these numbers in the past in an attempt to see if mentions of a stock ticker could fortell a stock's rise (effectively a forward indicator of a pump). Unfortunately, mentions lag the movement. Mentions also lag the eventual rapid dip (so you can't rely on the dip in the mentioned popularity of the stock to sell prior to the dip).
- duedillyio 5y ago
  Thanks! For sure, having more history helps put things in context. There's several stocks you can see now where tons of people have bought after the top and lost a lot. Here's an example: https://duedilly.io/asset/BABA/ https://duedilly.io/asset/BABA/ I've noticed something similar with mentions being a poor leading indicator. Anyone can submit any reddit post to the site so hoping with exposure these older traders can submit those older posts as well, as it helps corroborate their track record.
quickthrower2 5y ago
Data driven survival bias!
AliTheLord 5y ago
Looks like you don't handle stock splits. There was a 10:1 stock split for TTD a few months ago, so DDs before then are mostly just showing -90%. https://duedilly.io/asset/TTD/#/ https://duedilly.io/asset/TTD/#/
- duedillyio 5y ago
  Whoops, that's definitely a mistake. Need to backfill the split adjusted prices from the data vendor, good catch! Thanks a lot.
unixhero 5y ago
This is a big ask, but can you make one that analyzes seeking alpha posts? Seekingglpha.com ... Generally quite high quality posts, but I always lack the track record knowledge... To have this due diligence tool on the authors would be gold!
DrNosferatu 5y ago
Obviously they haven't read Taleb's books...
SergeAx 5y ago
Great tool, fun to browse, thanks! UI guess: use 3-letter code for month instead of digits, that will be easier for non-US users.

181 points by duedillyio 5y ago

Built my first "real" webapp to help retail traders figure out whether to trust the people posting trading ideas on Reddit. It links each post to its performance and lets you see the prior trading ideas suggested by each person. Not much of a developer but I've got several years of experience in the quant finance industry. Seeing people talk about plowing their rent money into an idea when the ideas are hardly financially sound was really frustrating. At the end of the day, it was my non-technical friends and people like them being sucked into these pump and dump schemes. Happy to get any feedback. Here's an example page if you're not sure what to click: https://duedilly.io/asset/ZOM https://duedilly.io/asset/ZOM

dogma1138 5y ago

Whats the time scale you are looking at to estimate accuracy? It seems to be real/near real time which can skew things from what idea turned out to be right to what idea got the biggest amount of suckers to buy into a pump and dump scheme since the stonks/wsb subreddits now have enough members to push the needle especially on relatively low trade volume securities and stocks.

duedillyio 5y ago
I consider 1 week, 1 month, and 1 year horizons and report all 3. For people pushing things around you expect to see it more on these short/medium term horizons. example: https://duedilly.io/asset/SAVA/ https://duedilly.io/asset/SAVA/

PragmaticPulp 5y ago

Fun tool. Thanks for putting it together. It's interesting to crawl through some of the entries from leaderboard people. It seems like most of their bets are neutral or slightly random, but then they'll be propped up with a lucky call on GME from January or some other single-stock pick. For example, this poster apparently just spammed GME posts during the run-up and got lucky, but if you followed their other calls (REAL and AI) you'd be deep in the red. Their GME spam puts them in the top 3 medium traders with a 236% 1-month return, but everything else they've posted has performed terribly: https://duedilly.io/trader/r.Ottikarottiii/ https://duedilly.io/trader/r.Ottikarottiii/ It would almost be more helpful if there was an option to subtract out the well-known meme stocks like GME. Some of these leaderboard entries have not so great results for their own calls, but they happened to post about GME at just the right time to dominate their average.

cinntaile 5y ago
I'd say that's how most people outperform, they get a lucky break with a stock that goes x10 or something.
- icedchai 5y ago
  AMD really sent my account to the moon. HUBS too.
- geoduck14 5y ago
  Yeah, the pretty much sums up my stock performance over the past decade
- kqr 5y ago
  I don't know who you include in "most people", but from what I understand of the professionals, that's not at all how making money works. If what you describe happens, it means the portfolio risk dial is set way too high. The mistaken idea behind that is that people think risk and reward covaries. It does for single wagers, but when assessing profitability of investments, we must look at long term growth. When we do that, there's a risk level that maximises growth. Lower risk than that gives you slower growth but with less variability. Higher risk is just stupid because it gives you slower growth and increases your risk of ruin (by getting variability over levels supported by your capital.) ---- People who actually make money on this are good at inventing their own insurance in ways that lowers their risk significantly. They make very specific, relatively independent bets that aren't just proxies for "exposure to the market".
  - namanyayg 5y ago
    Interesting analysis and I think I've reached similiar conclusions when talking to my friends and associates and seeing their results over the last ~5y; high risk leads to lot of capital loss often for them. I usually have been playing low-risk investments and want to change that, any articles or advice to make independent high risk bets that actually end up lowering overall risk?

somebodythere 5y ago

Cool website. Percentage is a good place to start, but if you want to get closer to the alpha of a given idea, dividing the percentage return by its beta to the benchmark, then subtracting the return of the benchmark over the same period will get you closer.

dmos62 5y ago
I find this formula unintuitive (for starters I had to google what alpha and beta was). Does it have a name so I can look it up?
duedillyio 5y ago
I did consider beta adjusting performance and may do this in the future -- it does require more infra set up (ex. computing historical betas for these posts back in time). Since my target demographic in this case was people on Reddit following trading advice I wanted to keep things straightforward first and slowly over time introduce those educational components to get it closer to how the industry thinks about it.

Jorge1o1 5y ago

This was really fun to browse! Consider adding a section for “worst traders” and “worst stocks” just for fun. For example, CLOV is a wsb matador.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
duedillyio 5y ago
Thanks! Yeah, I don't want to put anyone down with the worst traders page but worst stocks could be fun, especially if it's done as a way to bring people together around their losses and better inform themselves on what to look out for.

worik 5y ago

Mēh So long as you only use money to loose, never use margin... Trading stocks is not a way to make money. Want to make money? Invest in yourself and work for it. Stocks can be a part of your portfolio - but do not take investment advice from Hacker News commenters!

smabie 5y ago
What if you're a trader and investing in yourself means trading?

SmellTheGlove 5y ago

Does the r. in front of everyone's name stand for Robot? This is cool. If you follow /r/wsb, you know half the damn sub has the idea to create this site once a week. But you actually did it. Great work.

duedillyio 5y ago
So this is a quick hack -- I have a user registration system but I didn't want people parking on reddit usernames. For any user that gets scraped from Reddit I add a "r." in front of their username. The '.' character is invalid in usernames that are user-created. If you sign in with Reddit, you can change the username to whatever. Thanks! I'm unable to post it there unfortunately (or really anywhere on stocks subreddits) due to moderation rules around promoting webapps but I've seen a lot of those posts.
- SmellTheGlove 5y ago
  That is a cool idea. Also, posting it there is going to jack your hosting costs immediately, haha. But why not post it - what's the worst they can do, ban you for posting something useful?

BrianOnHN 5y ago

Maybe this isn't ideal for the homepage > Okay Retards, I will make this long because apparently you Apes seem to like long posts, even when a YOLO opportunity like this But what do I know, I'm just a triggered liberal. Edit: I understand how they use the "r" word on WSB as it's been in the mainstream news for a year. I'm saying that it reflects poorly on a business, signaling that it failed due diligence, on there homepage of all places.

toomuchtodo 5y ago
This is the dialect of /r/wallstreetbets. Apes strong together and all that jazz. To call someone a retard is a term of endearment, or a (not so) secret handshake. (fellow gambling degenerate)
- tclancy 5y ago
  That’s lovely. Bad news is a bunch of edgelords don’t get to dictate how language is used or what it means.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - adamdusty 5y ago
    Among themselves? Why wouldn't they? No one is obligated to participate.
    - tclancy 5y ago
      To every smoothbrain that responded thusly, if you only use a word in private amongst certain other people, then it feels a lot like we both know that’s a word you shouldn’t use.
      - tux1968 5y ago
        Like scientists, doctors, and programmers who only use certain words in the company of their fellow practitioners? Or say any number of fan bases (think Anime, or personality-driven youtube channels) that have their own lingo?

andrewmcwatters 5y ago

The best traders don’t share their edge.

exdsq 5y ago
Nowadays the best performing traders share their edge to make their edge. Pump and dumping small market-cap cryptos can lead to insane ROI if you're seen as 'the best trader' because them jumping in is how you get that nickname in the first place.
- smabie 5y ago
  Eh don't really agree with this. it's just that you don't hear about the ones who keep their heads down and grind unless you are in/very close to the industry.
paulpauper 5y ago
Typically there is more money to be made selling subscriptions than trading unless u are a major hedge fund. Desperate ppl look for any sort of guidance even if it does not work well.
- smabie 5y ago
  If you have edge it is almost always more profitable to trade than to sell advice.
  - paulpauper 5y ago
    if you can get 1000 subs at $100/month that is top .5% wealth without the risk of trading
    - sydthrowaway 5y ago
      www.alphahub.us
dmos62 5y ago

tinyhouse 5y ago

Nice idea! One problem is that most original posts are removed.

paulpauper 5y ago

3x tech etfs are pretty good.. so are the usual fang stocks. Some ppl on that sub have demonstrative skill but like finding diamonds in the rough. They tend to hone in on maybe a dozen stocks that have been shown to have consistent returns such as Amazon and Facebook. Gl, ymmv

throwaway888abc 5y ago

Great project. If you have that data too: it would be great to also display the losing trades and portfolio + include it on leaderboard. Also, winning vs losing trades. For sake of soul (and wallet) of Average Trader Joe

bhelkey 5y ago

Neat idea! A couple of nits: Looking at the recommended page duedilly.io/asset/ZOM "Posts that are not bold have been removed/deleted on Reddit" -> "Posts that are bold have been removed/deleted on Reddit" DD is not defined (one would have to go to the main page) and it is not a well known acronym.

Galanwe 5y ago
> DD is not defined (one would have to go to the main page) and it is not a well known acronym. Worst, in the industry its often an acronym for "drawdown". I was quite confused until I saw the definition DD=due diligence on the homepage.
- duedillyio 5y ago
  I've been in the industry for several years and had the same reaction when I first starting seeing wallstreetbets posts. For a while I even thought it stood for "double down" when it seemed like these were encouraging posts. Good point from you and the parent commenter -- I'll make that clearer.

hellbannedguy 5y ago

"How it works: to be eligible for the leaderboard, traders must have at least 5 live posts (i.e. non-duplicated or grayed out on their page) and have posted about at least 3 unique tickers. The horizons used are 1 week for short term, 1 month for medium term, and 1 year for long term -- however, these are simply measurements and do not reflect the trades that these individuals actually did. It simply mimicks a simple strategy of trading when they post." 1. I would like to know exactly how long a user has been on Twitter. I would like to filter out all users that joined after GME rebellion. It might help identify the hedge fund guys whom are their just to pump, and dump? I am not that familiar with Twitter's api, but felt after the publicity, most professionals would ruin the group.

rebelos 5y ago

If you're looking to work with someone on this, reach out here: revoh98186 at kibwot.com (temporary email). I'm a fullstack dev with an interest in finance/trading and scouting for a side project.

throwthere 5y ago

I took a gander-- the leaderboard lists 10 people making better than a 17% weekly return (3500% annualized). After extensive work cross-referencing the list with this one [1] my team was unable to find 10 candidates. Another explanation of outsized returns was deemed remotely possible but downvoted into oblivion [2]. I think it's really enticing to think you can make it rich by reading something on Reddit and doing about as much research as you'd do before buying a refrigerator. [1] https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/ https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/ [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infinite_monkey_theorem

quickthrower2 5y ago
Hey there is quite a bit to think of before buying a fridge!
- unixhero 5y ago
  Measurements Read reviews Noise Colour Price The list goes on and on!

dimitry12 5y ago

Looks very interesting! Do you classify DD as bullish or bearish using the body of the post or the title, just like the ticker? Awesome "About" section, it answered all my other questions.

RhodesianHunter 5y ago
Most of what I'm seeing listed as DD from the top traders is just news. Things like "TICKER up 16% after hours as XYZ happens!"
duedillyio 5y ago
So 99% of DDs are long and I didn't want to get sidetracked trying to build a guessing system since many Reddit posts delete their contents (the titles are not removable which helps me). For that reason I auto-classify as bullish but there's a report page that anyone can click to report mis-classified posts. Thank you!
- dimitry12 5y ago
  That makes sense. Thank you!

bigcloud1299 5y ago

Does anyone know if something like this for Twitter exist ?

duedillyio 5y ago
I would like to open it up more generically to allow for sharing any ideas (like from not Reddit) -- the platform isn't tied to it. The big issue for me is accountability. People make public claims and delete the things that didn't work out, so a lot of platforms can be gamed. On Reddit, the titles of posts can never be deleted so that provides one way to verify it. I think that's valuable if you can start auto-adding tweets/blog posts/reddit so people don't mess with their records.
- janmo 5y ago
  If you delete your own post it will show up as "Posted by u/[deleted]" If a mod deletes it, it will still be linked to your account. So it is possible to fake the records.

challenger-derp 5y ago

Interesting social experiment that feels like it has the unethical potential to super-charge pump and dump schemes by lending credence to social media trading ideas and aggregating the information in one place. Inexperienced investors/traders browsing this website might get the impression that it's indeed profitable to be "part of the pump". Perhaps consider going further back in time, before GME. GME-like events have occurred, but to a smaller extent, prior to GME. Perhaps consider including posts of people who lost money buying at the top. Few posts are of this nature, but they occur when previously popular tickers dip. Perhaps include past trader performance. Having been on r/WSB years prior to GME, I've noticed that the _active_ community tends to be made of newly joined users. r/WSB has a huge subscriber base (reddit accounts who have "joined" the subreddit) but far fewer daily active users. Pulled these numbers in the past in an attempt to see if mentions of a stock ticker could fortell a stock's rise (effectively a forward indicator of a pump). Unfortunately, mentions lag the movement. Mentions also lag the eventual rapid dip (so you can't rely on the dip in the mentioned popularity of the stock to sell prior to the dip).

duedillyio 5y ago
Thanks! For sure, having more history helps put things in context. There's several stocks you can see now where tons of people have bought after the top and lost a lot. Here's an example: https://duedilly.io/asset/BABA/ https://duedilly.io/asset/BABA/ I've noticed something similar with mentions being a poor leading indicator. Anyone can submit any reddit post to the site so hoping with exposure these older traders can submit those older posts as well, as it helps corroborate their track record.

quickthrower2 5y ago

Data driven survival bias!

AliTheLord 5y ago

Looks like you don't handle stock splits. There was a 10:1 stock split for TTD a few months ago, so DDs before then are mostly just showing -90%. https://duedilly.io/asset/TTD/#/ https://duedilly.io/asset/TTD/#/

duedillyio 5y ago
Whoops, that's definitely a mistake. Need to backfill the split adjusted prices from the data vendor, good catch! Thanks a lot.

unixhero 5y ago

This is a big ask, but can you make one that analyzes seeking alpha posts? Seekingglpha.com ... Generally quite high quality posts, but I always lack the track record knowledge... To have this due diligence tool on the authors would be gold!

DrNosferatu 5y ago

Obviously they haven't read Taleb's books...

SergeAx 5y ago

Great tool, fun to browse, thanks! UI guess: use 3-letter code for month instead of digits, that will be easier for non-US users.