3 ms·

Too expensive + Your eyes already do the distance estimation and they are basically cameras so we can do this just as well or better.

by rnaud 5y ago

mdorazio 5y ago
> Your eyes already do the distance estimation and they are basically cameras so we can do this just as well or better. This is not really accurate. Our brains do the distance estimation, and they use all kinds of tricks and contextual clues to do it, not just parallax (~2.5 inch parallax for objects more than ~100ft away isn't all that helpful). And this is the whole problem with vision-only autonomous driving - ML capabilities are nowhere near the capabilities of a human brain.
- awal2 5y ago
  Monocular depth estimation has gotten really good recently though[0]. Not saying this one paper/method is 100% sufficient, but we're closing the gap in this one capability (depth estimation from pure vision) quite rapidly. [0] https://roxanneluo.github.io/Consistent-Video-Depth-Estimation/ https://roxanneluo.github.io/Consistent-Video-Depth-Estimati...
- ajross 5y ago
  > Our brains do the distance estimation, and they use all kinds of tricks and contextual clues to do it So, first, this presentation we're talking about is literally about problems like that. Second: your brain isn't nearly as good as you think it is, it's just constructing a coherent story to fool you into thinking it is. Try this on the highway sometime as a passenger: close your eyes and recite the distances to the vehicle in front of you and the one to either side. I bet you anything a Tesla is going to do that better. Third: they pretty much cracked this already. They stopped shipping radar on US Model 3's and Y's in the spring, have shipped hundreds of thousands of them now, and there's not a hint of signal that something is off with distance measurements with the cars. My car doesn't get this perfectly (you can actually watch the animations on screen bounce around a bit as the estimates change) but I think it objectively does better than I do. Distance/Lidar framing is old news, basically. Vision works fine. The worst bugs remaining with all the FSD Beta footage on Youtube are almost entirely pathing and planning issues. The car sees its environment just fine.
- ctdonath 5y ago
  That’s exactly what Tesla described tonight. 8 video cameras on a moving platform provide enough eyes, parallax, context, etc to build accurate 4D (!) models in real time.
gonzo41 5y ago
Yeah but some people suck at throwing darts. So some part of their mechanical system is bad at making judgements. Sure they can learn. But I want a 2 ton cyber truck hurtling down the freeway to KNOW how far things are away. Telsa should pivot and innovate to make lidar cheaper.
cmrdporcupine 5y ago
My eyes don't get covered in salt and mud while driving down the highway. But people in California probably don't get this.
wombatpm 5y ago
So Elon just needs the neural acne to be working and hook up a brain in a jar to drive teslas

Too expensive + Your eyes already do the distance estimation and they are basically cameras so we can do this just as well or better.

by rnaud 5y ago

Too expensive + Your eyes already do the distance estimation and they are basically cameras so we can do this just as well or better.

mdorazio 5y ago

> Your eyes already do the distance estimation and they are basically cameras so we can do this just as well or better. This is not really accurate. Our brains do the distance estimation, and they use all kinds of tricks and contextual clues to do it, not just parallax (~2.5 inch parallax for objects more than ~100ft away isn't all that helpful). And this is the whole problem with vision-only autonomous driving - ML capabilities are nowhere near the capabilities of a human brain.

awal2 5y ago
Monocular depth estimation has gotten really good recently though[0]. Not saying this one paper/method is 100% sufficient, but we're closing the gap in this one capability (depth estimation from pure vision) quite rapidly. [0] https://roxanneluo.github.io/Consistent-Video-Depth-Estimation/ https://roxanneluo.github.io/Consistent-Video-Depth-Estimati...
ajross 5y ago
> Our brains do the distance estimation, and they use all kinds of tricks and contextual clues to do it So, first, this presentation we're talking about is literally about problems like that. Second: your brain isn't nearly as good as you think it is, it's just constructing a coherent story to fool you into thinking it is. Try this on the highway sometime as a passenger: close your eyes and recite the distances to the vehicle in front of you and the one to either side. I bet you anything a Tesla is going to do that better. Third: they pretty much cracked this already. They stopped shipping radar on US Model 3's and Y's in the spring, have shipped hundreds of thousands of them now, and there's not a hint of signal that something is off with distance measurements with the cars. My car doesn't get this perfectly (you can actually watch the animations on screen bounce around a bit as the estimates change) but I think it objectively does better than I do. Distance/Lidar framing is old news, basically. Vision works fine. The worst bugs remaining with all the FSD Beta footage on Youtube are almost entirely pathing and planning issues. The car sees its environment just fine.
ctdonath 5y ago
That’s exactly what Tesla described tonight. 8 video cameras on a moving platform provide enough eyes, parallax, context, etc to build accurate 4D (!) models in real time.

gonzo41 5y ago

Yeah but some people suck at throwing darts. So some part of their mechanical system is bad at making judgements. Sure they can learn. But I want a 2 ton cyber truck hurtling down the freeway to KNOW how far things are away. Telsa should pivot and innovate to make lidar cheaper.

cmrdporcupine 5y ago

My eyes don't get covered in salt and mud while driving down the highway. But people in California probably don't get this.

wombatpm 5y ago

So Elon just needs the neural acne to be working and hook up a brain in a jar to drive teslas