The only number I've heard from Apple is, "the likelihood that the system would incorrectly identify any given account is less than one in one trillion per year

The only number I've heard from Apple is, "the likelihood that the system would incorrectly identify any given account is less than one in one trillion per year."[1] Which I read as enough false hits to flag an account that year (some interview said that threshold was around 30). That depends on the average number of new photos uploaded to iCloud, the size of the NCMEC database, the threshold for flagging the account, and the error rate of the match. Without knowing most of those numbers it's hard to gauge how close it is. https://www.apple.com/child-safety/pdf/Expanded_Protections_for_Children_Frequently_Asked_Questions.pdf https://www.apple.com/child-safety/pdf/Expanded_Protections_...