I spent time there between 2012-2014. At the time, Afghan gov’t spending was approx $16 billion with only approx $2 billion actual national revenue. Which was

I spent time there between 2012-2014. At the time, Afghan gov’t spending was approx $16 billion with only approx $2 billion actual national revenue. Which was a well known, but largely ignored, problem to anyone paying attention. It’s unlikely China’s Belt and Road Initiative will generate similar frictional toll/rent cashflow opportunities in the short-term. Debt-trap diplomacy tactics are unlikely to work as I reckon the Taliban would strongly prefer to continue collecting tolls/rents on commerce movement rather than borrow foreign money for domestic owned infrastructure. Why fix what isn’t broke(n)? I suspect China would need to be willing to lose circa $5-10 billion annually in frictional losses as rent to the Taliban to maximise odds of influence and stability. Pakistan doesn’t have the financial capacity to guarantee Afghanistan’s success, only it’s continued failure. India would struggle to rent influence due to a lack of excess financial capacity and geopolitical incongruence. Iran has its hands full elsewhere and is probably focused more on ensuring Iran’s Shia diplomats aren’t slaughtered again. In terms of natural resources, I recall the stories of Afghanistan’s half trillion under the dirt. But it reminds me of the trillion dollar asteroids. It’s irrelevant is the cost of extraction and bringing it to market exceeds the value of the resource.