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I’m surprised that access to subscriber numbers was enough signal to generate alpha. Just off the top of my head, I can think of multiple public or semi-public
by TechBro8615 5y ago
I’m surprised that access to subscriber numbers was enough signal to generate alpha. Just off the top of my head, I can think of multiple public or semi-public data sources that you could use as a rough proxy for Netflix subscription numbers. Think DNS logs, VPN providers, peering data, credit card transactions... and that’s without reverse engineering the app at all. I’m sure if you really dig into it you can find a few methods for estimating subscriber count. You don’t even need a count, just a well-distributed sample of delta. If Wall St estimates subscriber growth of 1%, but your model shows 5%, who cares what the exact numbers are?
- AmericanChopper 5y agoThat’s just typical (and legal) quantitative analysis. Like using satellite imagery to track utilization of Walmart car parks.
- mdoms 5y agoThe fact that they netted 3 million bucks indicates it's not as easy as you think.
- TechBro8615 5y agoOr perhaps it’s easier than I thought, since I assumed surely those sources would be fully mined, such that insider knowledge of subscriber numbers wouldn’t be enough to reliably know which way the stock will move after an earnings announcement.